wisconsinwx Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Wisconsinwx do you only base a successfil storm off of how you do compared to someone else's location? This is a rather weak storm no matter where you are for the most part. Well let's just say I'm a lot happier when I don't feel like we just missed a storm. I didn't expect to get more than an inch or two, so 3-4 inches in a storm that has weakened considerably is pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Weaker and colder storm than last night. Will start as rain this evening no doubt from the warm PBL today, and the warm conveyor will start kicking in too. Overnight there's the potential for the lowest 1,000 feet of the atmosphere to cool to just below freezing, so it'll probably start mixing after midnight. Cold front then comes in around sunrise and it snows all day Wednesday, but of course the springtime PBL might make things less conducive than they look initially. I'd say 4-5" is a good call for Madison at this point, with another inch of assorted wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's kind of frustrating that no matter what path the Low takes, the southern half of MIchigan (starting where I live of course) just can not get any of the snow. Didn't you have an epic February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Prelim I'd go 2-5" for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Up to 37° F on top of the met building. Clouds are clearing out and it's almost full sun. Should almost completely mix before precip onset so we're talking temps in the low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 So far a pretty weak cold sector of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Didn't you have an epic February? Oh, I was referring to this storm. Model run after model run as shown this warm tongue come up through southern Michigan. I am also learning that the common tracks of lows through this area consistently put this area right on the edge...most of the winter we were on the northern edge (last winter too) and then in December and so far in March we've been on the southern edge. Just doesn't seem like the lows like to move so that we are comfortably in the "safe zone" without worrying about mixtures or being missed. I am interested in what we would average if we didn't get lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 After looking at the 12z suite, might have to give the idea of a strong secondary more credence. Non-GFS models in some decent agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 After looking at the 12z suite, might have to give the idea of a strong secondary more credence. Non-GFS models in some decent agreement. Nowcast FTW once again it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Oh, I was referring to this storm. Model run after model run as shown this warm tongue come up through southern Michigan. I am also learning that the common tracks of lows through this area consistently put this area right on the edge...most of the winter we were on the northern edge (last winter too) and then in December and so far in March we've been on the southern edge. Just doesn't seem like the lows like to move so that we are comfortably in the "safe zone" without worrying about mixtures or being missed. I am interested in what we would average if we didn't get lake effect snow. Sounds like over here, except without the lake effect. So you'd probably average a relatively paltry 50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Nowcast FTW once again it looks like 12z UKIE gives SE MI a shot of defo band Thursday night. Unlike the GEM, looks like it'd be cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z Euro wallops the eastern 1/2 or so of OH with the second piece. No idea on the specifics with respect to thermals, but at face value (especially the eastern 1/3) 6"+ amounts look doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z Euro wallops the eastern 1/2 or so of OH with the second piece. No idea on the specifics with respect to thermals, but at face value (especially the eastern 1/3) 6"+ amounts look doable. I was looping that experimental GEM p-type graphic. Seems to do the same thing for E OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I was looping that experimental GEM p-type graphic. Seems to do the same thing for E OH. Looks like they're fairly similar, though the Euro moves the storm through quicker than the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z UKIE gives SE MI a shot of defo band Thursday night. Unlike the GEM, looks like it'd be cold enough for snow. Euro looks like it might clip us. Looks like a repeat of the last storm with the secondary going a bit further west and a bit quicker. Seems like a complex setup to me. The better we do with this one, I think the worse we will with the clipper because if this secondary hangs around it wont it shear out the clipper or force it away from this region? If the low did move out then the clipper would probably head north. Can't have it all I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Green Bay: 4-7 Oshkosh: 4-7 Wausau: 4-7 Fond du Lac: 3-5 Green Lake: 4-6 Milwaukee: 1-3 Madison: 3-5 La Crosse: 3-5 That would be my best call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I may have to apologize to the GGEM after basically calling it a hot mess yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 complicated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I may have to apologize to the GGEM after basically calling it a hot mess yesterday. well the 12z GEM yesterday was a bit too extreme, but the other models have taken somewhat of a liking to it. it was still a hot mess though to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Confused. Secondary is a cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Confused. Secondary is a cutoff? Not a cutoff. Closed low at 500, but not a cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Well, epic fail on my part for NC Kansas with the snow. I do apologized, do not like to put out forecast that far off. Looks like tracking the similar forecast for the NE-WI path with a general 4-6" swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Oh, I was referring to this storm. Model run after model run as shown this warm tongue come up through southern Michigan. I am also learning that the common tracks of lows through this area consistently put this area right on the edge...most of the winter we were on the northern edge (last winter too) and then in December and so far in March we've been on the southern edge. Just doesn't seem like the lows like to move so that we are comfortably in the "safe zone" without worrying about mixtures or being missed. I am interested in what we would average if we didn't get lake effect snow. There are places in southern WI (away from Lake Michigan) that only average about 35" of snowfall per season. See the attached map for more details: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/climate/wisnow.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 They need to start takin down the ww's and get them into wwa asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Not a cutoff. Closed low at 500, but not a cutoff. Some of the big storms this year were? Assuming closed low? Need to learn the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Some of the big storms this year were? Assuming closed low? Need to learn the differences. Cutoff lows are completely removed from the upper level steering winds. They're closed, and are stationary or tend to wander aimlessly. Was trying to find a good example. Not sure if this is it: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010/us0313.php Notice how that gyre in the OV just sits and spins while the main belt of westerlies flow around that trough in the Pac NW and then shoot up into Canada. That's at least a close approximation of a cutoff low. A closed low is simply a closed H5 center, but is still incorporated into the broader jet stream pattern. They're more typical. Jan 2-3, 1999. Closed but not cutoff. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1999/us0103.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I find it somewhat interesting that every 12z ensemble member on e-Wall brings "measurable" snow to IN at 48 hours, but the OP GFS is "weaker". Granted it's still marginal with surface temps, but I'm desperate to get another 1.1" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Green Bay: 4-7 Oshkosh: 4-7 Wausau: 4-7 Fond du Lac: 3-5 Green Lake: 4-6 Milwaukee: 1-3 0-.5" Madison: 3-5 T-2" 4-5" if you eyeball with Floridian eyes. La Crosse: 3-5 That would be my best call. Good luck up there, Matty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's amazing to see how much broader/flatter/weaker the models are with the H5 trough, at least initially, compared to their depictions of about 48 hours ago. AFDs claiming stronger/further north storm = fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's a monster Wisconsin Snow Map LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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