Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 This storm is the first truly legitimate classic Colorado Low of the winter across the plains and into the Great Lakes. Curious as to why you think that is? Too much of a NAo block? The PNA was too positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Curious as to why you think that is? Too much of a NAo block? The PNA was too positive? a relatively persistent feature all winter long was ridging out west, we've either had s/w's having to go over the top like the clipper pattern we had our when we've been able to squash down the ridge they end up digging too far south and end up ejecting storms east of the Miss. or going negative tilt early but having to come up from texas we haven't had a h500 set up like this really, this s/w and the remaining energy is allowed to cross the country while amplifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Curious as to why you think that is? Too much of a NAo block? The PNA was too positive? The early season high latitude blocking and persistent -AO type regime over the Lakes and out east definitely squashed any threats for potential growth and development of any ejecting lee storms. The freakish Northern Plains blizzard was even "stunted a tad" and generally took a strong NW track then rapidly occluded and tracked E as it headed farther N--doesn't matter since it ejected out of MT/WY so it wasn't a true CO Low. That +PNA ridge pattern that followed was also not conducive in any way to ejecting troughs into the plains--quite the opposite in fact. Of course there is more to it than that--but that is my simplistic analysis of this winter in terms of CO Low potential. It has been shoddy to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Finally, a colorado low. It has been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Thanks for the responses. Is it normal for the storm track in march to be similar to late november early december, with lows going north through the upper midwest to northern michigan or canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 fwiw..0z ggem 144 - 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 GFS shows that low almost going over top of me. Something to watch, I know the EURO was a tad further north maybe more over Eau Claire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 models have been in pretty good agreement with this one for days, tracks shift a tad once in awhile but have had no major shifts Will be interesting to see if that changes as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIU Jeff Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 models have been in pretty good agreement with this one for days, tracks shift a tad once in awhile but have had no major shifts Will be interesting to see if that changes as we get closer. Several things are different, other than general Sfc Low track. Polar Vort for the GFS is over Hudson Bay (GFS), where as the Polar Vort is near Nunavut (ECMWF); placement should be a player in the track of the system. Right now the ECMWF makes more sense. Where as the CMC is much slower overall and has a Polar Vort in a similar location to the GFS. Just how I'm looking at it anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 EURO at hr 150 has a 996 low near E. NE. Way farther south then the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 EURO at hr 150 has a 996 low near E. NE. Way farther south then the 12z run. WAY south. I like it. What does it spit out for precip for North Platte? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 WAY south. I like it. What does it spit out for precip for North Platte? so far...run not complete yet. TUE 06Z 08-MAR -0.5 -1.1 1007 97 98 0.17 547 541 TUE 12Z 08-MAR -0.4 -2.4 1001 98 97 0.43 543 542 TUE 18Z 08-MAR -0.6 -2.4 1001 98 89 0.27 541 540 WED 00Z 09-MAR -2.3 -5.0 1007 93 96 0.19 543 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Between 1.25 and 1.5 it looks like. I have no idea how much of that is snow etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yeah, it's all snow. 1.25 ish QPF probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 so far...run not complete yet. TUE 06Z 08-MAR -0.5 -1.1 1007 97 98 0.17 547 541 TUE 12Z 08-MAR -0.4 -2.4 1001 98 97 0.43 543 542 TUE 18Z 08-MAR -0.6 -2.4 1001 98 89 0.27 541 540 WED 00Z 09-MAR -2.3 -5.0 1007 93 96 0.19 543 537 Yeah, it's all snow. 1.25 ish QPF probably. Thanks both of you. What a run. Just total weenie--that would pure epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 track to green bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 certainly seems like the energy is digging further south than the last few runs, it would certainly fit the seasonal trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Definitely an improvement for me, still need it a bit further east as I stay just above freezing for most of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 i think the gfs has been most consistent with track so far...euro has been all over the place but then it really doesn't mean anything this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Not that it means much at this range, but wow the 00z Euro drops just under 1.50 inches of liquid over Mankato, which would also be pure snow..I guess let the historic winter keep on rolling. Can we crack 100 inches? This one will be fun to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Wow another big boy to track. Looks like it could be anyting from heavy rain to heavy snow here in southeast minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Not that it means much at this range, but wow the 00z Euro drops just under 1.50 inches of liquid over Mankato, which would also be pure snow..I guess let the historic winter keep on rolling. Can we crack 100 inches? This one will be fun to watch! It wont take much to break 100" from there to here in the Twin Cities. Only need 15-25" and that is only a tad above normal when you combine March and April. If we get 6-12" out of this thing (or more!) we'd be at 90" with a very active pattern indicated in the longer range. Will be interesting and like you said, fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Go- 6z GFS and euro look similar to me with the track right through this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 euro looks to be a tad stronger then the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Ya riding the line right now. The cold temps in the wake of the storm have seemed to be tempered back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 It wont take much to break 100" from there to here in the Twin Cities. Only need 15-25" and that is only a tad above normal when you combine March and April. If we get 6-12" out of this thing (or more!) we'd be at 90" with a very active pattern indicated in the longer range. Will be interesting and like you said, fun to watch. Also this will definitely impact our flood potential, we still have a good 13-14 inches on the ground, probably a little melting today but not much due to it being cloudy. Just amazing how many double digit snowstorms we have had! I have honestly lost count, Seems like we average a "decent" snowstorm each week. Its almost like routine haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Those of you southeast and northwest of us, practically all around us, enjoy your snow while we see a slushy rainy bunch of nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 GFS even farther south then the 6z GFS. LOW goes over MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 This is probably the last shot at a decent snow event here but right now it looks like a Baro and Prins special lol here is too a trend south but don't see that happening now. I will take the warmer weather and rain I guess to help melt the lakes/ponds to start fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 looks like the ggem is diving further south before hooking ne...sucks. 12z GFS ensemble mean has the L at MKE at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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