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March 7th-9th Potential Storm


wisconsinwx

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0z EURO was quite a bit colder with temps then 12z at least. The 850 0c line never gets past my area (maybe a tad N, tough to tell) 12z was way north with it.

Prins, could you post the LSE and FLD output from the EURO if you can? Thanks.

It's a start at least.

LSE

WED 00Z 09-MAR   3.3    -2.6    1019      64      97    0.01     552     537    
WED 06Z 09-MAR   0.4    -2.3    1017      77      96    0.10     552     538    
WED 12Z 09-MAR   0.3    -0.9    1011      88      99    0.07     548     539    
WED 18Z 09-MAR   0.4    -2.5    1010      92      91    0.34     545     537    
THU 00Z 10-MAR   0.1    -5.1    1011      92      91    0.12     543     534    
THU 06Z 10-MAR  -1.0    -5.0    1013      88      90    0.03     541     531   

FLD

WED 00Z 09-MAR   1.5    -1.8    1022      66      89    0.01     555     538    
WED 06Z 09-MAR   0.3    -1.4    1019      81      80    0.09     555     540    
WED 12Z 09-MAR   0.7    -0.9    1013      90      93    0.06     551     541    
WED 18Z 09-MAR   2.0     0.6    1008      97      73    0.26     547     541    
THU 00Z 10-MAR   1.3     0.4    1005      97      89    0.09     544     540    
THU 06Z 10-MAR   0.1    -3.8    1007      92      90    0.10     542     536    
THU 12Z 10-MAR  -1.2    -6.3    1012      84      88    0.01     541     531   

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Prins, when you get the chance, could you post the qpf outupt for the EURO for here and LSE? Thanks.

FLD

WED 06Z 09-MAR   0.9    -1.4    1020      78      74    0.03     555     538    
WED 12Z 09-MAR   0.6    -1.7    1015      89      96    0.06     551     539    
WED 18Z 09-MAR   1.4    -1.1    1011      95      94    0.17     548     539    
THU 00Z 10-MAR   0.6    -2.1    1011      95      95    0.03     546     537    
THU 06Z 10-MAR  -1.5    -4.0    1013      91      84    0.01     545     534    

LSE

WED 06Z 09-MAR   0.5    -2.6    1018      80      97    0.07     551     536    
WED 12Z 09-MAR   0.0    -1.9    1014      89     100    0.13     548     537    
WED 18Z 09-MAR   1.2    -3.2    1013      84      97    0.14     546     536    
THU 00Z 10-MAR   1.3    -5.4    1015      85      95    0.03     545     533    
THU 06Z 10-MAR  -0.9    -5.6    1018      85      84    0.00     544     530 

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Prins, when you get the chance, could you post the qpf outupt for the EURO for here and LSE? Thanks.

I don't think you'd want the Euro to verify with precip/rates being that light. Would probably increase the chances of surface temps/sun angle being an issue.

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WAA snows caused some issues here this morning, my drive to college was very slick, warmed up to 33.5 degrees after the snow intensity lessened, help road conditions significantly. Temperatures are back below freezing and the snow is sticking again. Had about 2 inches of accumulating snow this morning, down to around 1 inch now.

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18z NAM went nuts with 9" of cement mixer snow for Toronto, but even the warmer GFS has about 3" on the front end before column below 700mb becomes warmed sufficiently. From what I can tell looking at limited GEM/UKIE thermal info, they'd have a similar scenario as well. It'll be interesting to watch unfold. If the models are too cool even by tenths of degrees it'll make all the difference.

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18z NAM went nuts with 9" of cement mixer snow for Toronto, but even the warmer GFS has about 3" on the front end before column below 700mb becomes warmed sufficiently. From what I can tell looking at limited GEM/UKIE thermal info, they'd have a similar scenario as well. It'll be interesting to watch unfold. If the models are too cool even by tenths of degrees it'll make all the difference.

NAM was nice, noticed the models kinda ticked cooler today

wont start to get too invested until tomorrow's 12z runs

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