snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 950 mb temps just a touch too warm here at -1.3 or -1.4 C when the bulk of the precip occurs. It is right at freezing at 850, so extremely close, but probably will get just screwed like only Milwaukee can. Don't get it. That's plenty cold for snow. Unless there's a warm layer above that or it's really warm at the sfc. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 0z GFS clown map for here shows 2-4 inches... Highest snows are well east and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 The recent parade of storms over the last few weeks have tracked along the existing baroclinic zone. The snow in the cold sector has generally been limited to fairly narrow swaths. This storm now appears to be no different. Without significant amounts of cold air on the move, I don't see any real possibility for widespread snows anytime soon. Sure this system will no doubt lay down a narrow band of decent snows, but it appears to be narrow enough that it will take up until the last second to completely narrow down where it ends up. We need an impressive push of arctic air if we're going to see something more impressive in the wintry department IMO. Agreed. Until that happens wont see a widespread march clashing of the air masses storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Don't get it. That's plenty cold for snow. Unless there's a warm layer above that or it's really warm at the sfc. . That was a typo.:blush: I meant 1.3 or 1.4 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 That was a typo.:blush: I meant 1.3 or 1.4 C. oh, lol. Yeah, that's too warm too high up in the column for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 In this one aspect of model progs, it has. Made those other two look like foolish whooars. In the end they always meet in the middle with the Euro being king and leading the way to it. There really is no sensenow in even looking at the gfs and nam if you're just a weenie looking at clown maps and don't know their bias's.. Euro has been the only model worth looking at this winter, IMO. This is the pattern now where the GFS and NAM are left polishing the Euro's golden weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Money http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 In the end they always meet in the middle with the Euro being king and leading the way to it. There really is no sensenow in even looking at the gfs and nam if you're just a weenie looking at clown maps and don't know their bias's.. Euro has been the only model worth looking at this winter, IMO. This is the pattern now where the GFS and NAM are left polishing the Euro's golden weenie. I'm not convinced it is. The Euro has been poorer as of late, so I think this is actually the pattern it tends to struggle in more often. The first half of winter it was on a great roll in the medium range, at least with the major storm tracks. It has been quite average lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I'm not convinced it is. The Euro has been poorer as of late, so I think this is actually the pattern it tends to struggle in more often. The first half of winter it was on a great roll in the medium range, at least with the major storm tracks. It has been quite average lately. Meh.. if the euro has been avg. then the gfs and nam really are as useless as I think. It's been a tough yr on models, but when you follow them as close as I do the GFS is always playing catchup and is exaggerated to far south or north only to meet the euro error's half way at best.. same ole same ole ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 In the end they always meet in the middle with the Euro being king and leading the way to it. There really is no sensenow in even looking at the gfs and nam if you're just a weenie looking at clown maps and don't know their bias's.. Euro has been the only model worth looking at this winter, IMO. This is the pattern now where the GFS and NAM are left polishing the Euro's golden weenie. Well, our perceptions are colored by what happens in our backyard. Here, the EURO overall has been pretty mediocre this winter. And with regards to developing monstrous secondary lows with leftover energy in the base of ul troughs, there hasn't been any meeting in the middle. It did that twice this winter, along with the GGEM, and both times the actual outcome was ~90% closer to the more progressive GFS. We'll see what happens with the Thursday-Friday storm, but I'd side with the GFS. Always best to go with the non-anomalous solution, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Well, our perceptions are colored by what happens in our backyard. Here, the EURO overall has been pretty mediocre this winter. And with regards to developing monstrous secondary lows with leftover energy in the base of ul troughs, there hasn't been any meeting in the middle. It did that twice this winter, along with the GGEM, and both times the actual outcome was ~90% closer to the more progressive GFS. We'll see what happens with the Thursday-Friday storm, but I'd side with the GFS. Always best to go with the non-anomalous solution, imho. That's so boring though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Believing in monstrous secondary lows is for that persons loss and not the models in midrange. I see a secondary low even coming close to here in winter and I know its on some bad stuff. Mileage out east is of course different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Believing in monstrous secondary lows is for that persons loss and not the models in midrange. I see a secondary low even coming close to here in winter and I know its on some bad stuff. Mileage out east is of course different. lol, you got money tied up in the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 lol, you got money tied up in the EURO? If you had some money tied up in the euro or were mooching mv SV like many here you might have a slightly different opinion of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 If you had some money tied up in the euro or were mooching mv SV like many here you might have a slightly different opinion of the euro. Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 lol, you got money tied up in the EURO? Yeah I don't know this year has put some doubts in my mind about the Euro, its been more hit or miss than previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Doubt it. I don't... agree to disagree is cool with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Yeah I don't know this year has put some doubts in my mind about the Euro, its been more hit or miss than previous. And the gfs has been swing and miss if you don't know its biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 And the gfs has been swing and miss if you don't know its biases. Which we know the biases of it, at least we know why the GFS goes wrong when it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 00z GGEM is "interesting" to say the least. If this looks weird, you're probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Which we know the biases of it, at least we know why the GFS goes wrong when it does. model is always off its rocker in midrange. Only going to get worse now with nina kicking in over the lame NW flow crap all dec and and jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 model is always off its rocker in midrange. Only going to get worse now with nina kicking in over the lame NW flow crap all dec and and jan. I just think you are going on years past of the Euro being king, this year it has been just like the rest, good some days bad others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I just think you are going on years past of the Euro being king, this year it has been just like the rest, good some days bad others. Euro has been king, IMBY forecasting. Few more hiccups then usual - at least it don't swallow it's own weenie juice storm after storm like the gfs has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I just think you are going on years past of the Euro being king, this year it has been just like the rest, good some days bad others. It feels like we're always talking about this lately. Euro scores at or near the top, the GFS biases are well documented etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 The ECMWF is average. Each model has had good/bad days this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 It feels like we're always talking about this lately. Euro scores at or near the top, the GFS biases are well documented etc. No I agree, the Euro is near the top most of the time, but lately the models in general have been all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 EURO shifted SE a little bit. HR 60: 1004 LOW NE MO HR 66: 1004 LOW NW IL HR 72: 1004 LOW east of the WI/IL border. 12z EURO had the low almost over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 QPF is lame on the EURO although you would think it would generate more precip then that with a wide open gulf and a pretty strong low. Almost identical track as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 QPF is lame on the EURO although you would think it would generate more precip then that with a wide open gulf and a pretty strong low. Almost identical track as the GFS. Temps are probably warmer than the GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Money- This is starting to smell more and more like a turd here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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