BowMeHunter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 se trends and 72 hr nam talk Only thing that's going to be our friend is the rain giving the cars a bath in se wi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 NAM almost looks like it's trying to fire convection in IL/IN/MI between 18z-00z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Yeah, at hr 69 it has a 1004 low just west of chicago. I guess it ended up tracking more NEish to the WI/IL border area. Hour 66: Couldn't get much closer for here. That said, since the location of the 0C line is at the end of that 6 hour precip period, all of that liquid is rain most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Surface is probably too warm for any good accumlations for you wisconsin. I got the NAM data so far out to hr 60, and your surface temps is already 34-35. Hoosier, if the surface is like 33, and the 700, 750, 800, 850 etc is below freezing except the 900mb area, that would be snow, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Surface is probably too warm for any good accumlations for you wisconsin. I got the NAM data so far out to hr 60, and your surface temps is already 34-35. Hoosier, if the surface is like 33, and the 700, 750, 800, 850 etc is below freezing except the 900mb area, that would be snow, correct? I knew they wouldn't be at or below freezing, but even being close to freezing is a moral victory, given the possibility of 40 degree temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Surface is probably too warm for any good accumlations for you wisconsin. I got the NAM data so far out to hr 60, and your surface temps is already 34-35. Hoosier, if the surface is like 33, and the 700, 750, 800, 850 etc is below freezing except the 900mb area, that would be snow, correct? If the 900 mb area isn't too warm, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Moneyman, just checked your NAM soundings and it looks like mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 NAM continues with a wet bulb snowfall event for YYZ. If the pcpn could start earlier or the low tracks further south I'd be more comfortable buying into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 NAM continues with a wet bulb snowfall event for YYZ. If the pcpn could start earlier or the low tracks further south I'd be more comfortable buying into this. Get the euro to come south and i'd be a lot more comfortable in you pulling out a detroit feb. 20/21.. Euro is just blazing warm/cold rain. Hopefully it was blazing before the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Get the euro to come south and i'd be a lot more comfortable in you pulling out a detroit feb. 20/21.. Euro is just blazing warm/cold rain. Hopefully it was blazing before the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Despite the SE shift, the NAM went from 2-3" to 1 inch for me, and 4-5" to 3-4" for $man. Doesn't make sense, but I guess maybe the temps are warmer than 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 GFS takes a 1000 low right over MKE. 850 is cold enough for snow here, but the 0c surface line is way up in GB. Check soundings. If the depth and magnitude of the warm air at the sfc is limited, you could get a heavy wet snow, especially if you get dynamic cooling induced by heavy precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Storm is getting crappier (snow wise) by the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Good foot for money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Storm is getting crappier (snow wise) by the run Was never a beaut to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Check soundings. If the depth and magnitude of the warm air at the sfc is limited, you could get a heavy wet snow, especially if you get dynamic cooling induced by heavy precip rates. Do you have a good link for the GFS soundings by any chance? For the NAM, I use: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KFLD.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I'm probably going to get all wet and sloppy drunk if it snows more then 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 GFS takes a 1000 low right over MKE. 850 is cold enough for snow here, but the 0c surface line is way up in GB. actually it goes over chicago and then out over lake michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 ukie consistent...track over chicago into w MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Do you have a good link for the GFS soundings by any chance? For the NAM, I use: http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_KFLD.txt Twisterdata has good sounding data. Just click on the map where you're located and a profile will pop up. I clicked in your area at 66 on GFS. Looks like snow to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Thanks. So as long as everything is below 0, the surface temp could be a bit above 32 right? I checked the snow depth (I know, not very accurate etc) and it has parts of s. wi in the 8 inch range, which would make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Do you have a good link for the GFS soundings by any chance? For the NAM, I use: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KFLD.txt As long as you're cold enough aloft and north of the surface low with good precip rates, I wouldn't be too concerned with model temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Thanks. So as long as everything is below 0, the surface temp could be a bit above 32 right? I checked the snow depth (I know, not very accurate etc) and it has parts of s. wi in the 8 inch range, which would make sense. As long as everything, from say, 925mb and up is below freezing, and as long as that the air closest to the sfc is not too much above freezing (say less than 33.5), you can get accumulating snow...assuming sufficient precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 NAM almost looks like it's trying to fire convection in IL/IN/MI between 18z-00z Wednesday. yep near SPI at 18z weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 btw...regardless of what the EURO or GGEM shows tonight, I'm not buying any type of retrograding secondary low in the OV. Progressive GFS is the ticket. We've seen twice this winter thus far where the EURO and GGEM try to go nuts with full latitude, uber neg. tilt storms in the medium range and subsequently getting open fist b**ch slapped by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 GFS couldn't b**ch slap its own weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Was never a beaut to begin with. It looked waaay better last sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 950 mb temps just a touch too warm here at 1.3 or 1.4 C when the bulk of the precip occurs. It is right at freezing at 850, so extremely close, but probably will get just screwed like only Milwaukee can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 The recent parade of storms over the last few weeks have tracked along the existing baroclinic zone. The snow in the cold sector has generally been limited to fairly narrow swaths. This storm now appears to be no different. Without significant amounts of cold air on the move, I don't see any real possibility for widespread snows anytime soon. Sure this system will no doubt lay down a narrow band of decent snows, but it appears to be narrow enough that it will take up until the last second to completely narrow down where it ends up. We need an impressive push of arctic air if we're going to see something more impressive in the wintry department IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 GFS couldn't b**ch slap its own weenie. In this one aspect of model progs, it has. Made those other two look like foolish whooars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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