Thundersnow12 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just coming into picture for this storm on the around the 8th. Seeing some early snowfall forecast for the 8th with Omaha, Lincoln, Hayes, and Grand Island with around 8-9" or snowfall possible. Snowfall rates showing around 1.1 to 1.2" per hour for a 4-5 hour block on the 8th for these areas. Attached some snowfall projections for that area. http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf can you stop posting about this "smart model" until you explain it in detail? cause until you do, I'm sure most on here are taking it with less than a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 EURO: HR 84: 1006 LOW near STL. HR 90: 1002 LOW N/C. IL HR 96: 998 LOW S. tip of LM Interesting how it got that way. Thoughts hooiser? NNE track. too bad we couldn't get it ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 EURO: HR 84: 1006 LOW near STL. HR 90: 1002 LOW N/C. IL HR 96: 998 LOW S. tip of LM Interesting how it got that way. Thoughts hooiser? Just a quick look at it...I don't really see substantial changes compared to the previous run. Probably just typical model fluctuation or noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 can you stop posting amount this "smart model" until you explain it in detail? cause until you do, I'm sure most on here are taking it with less than a grain of salt. Yeah, would be nice to learn more about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just a quick look at it...I don't really see substantial changes compared to the previous run. Probably just typical model fluctuation or noise. love the new picture, awesome TBSS. that a big hailer that was northwest of LAF this past year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 can you stop posting about this "smart model" until you explain it in detail? cause until you do, I'm sure most on here are taking it with less than a grain of salt. Thundersnow, sorry about that, I thought I posted how this program works. I posted a topic in the Weather Forecast and Discussion areas on how it works. I hope this help, I really would love the feedback on it to make it better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 love the new picture, awesome TBSS. that a big hailer that was northwest of LAF this past year? Yep, it's the 6/14 supercell. EVENT NARRATIVE: Hail as large as softballs produced catastrophic damage to crops from near Boswell east and southeast to the Warren County line south of Templeton. An estimated 5,000 acres of corn crop was destroyed. The hail also caused significant roof damage to many houses. EPISODE NARRATIVE: A massive supercell developed over southern Benton County during the mid afternoon hours of June 14th. This storm produced grapefruit sized hail and wind speeds estimated to 100 mph. Thousands of acres of corn and other crops were destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 can you stop posting about this "smart model" until you explain it in detail? cause until you do, I'm sure most on here are taking it with less than a grain of salt. Really no difference between this "smart model" or the JMA haha. But the smart model is actually better then that joke of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 hpc updated their day 3 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 i had to laugh when i read this FOR AMOUNTS...MODEL PRODUCED SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE COMPLETELYUNREASONABLE AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AT ALL /EXCEPT TO SCARE PEOPLE/. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE EVENT WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 TO 1...SOME OF THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND SETTLING WILL ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 NNE track. too bad we couldn't get it ENE. yea im still puzzled at the north track . guess the trough goes neg tilt too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I'm going with 3-6 inches of slop here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Safest way to go right now frank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 yea im still puzzled at the north track . guess the trough goes neg tilt too early. yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Occlusion helps cut off the warm air influx, both aloft and at the sfc. Aided by some dry air advection from that high over Quebec, NAM indicating an evap cooling induced snowstorm here. Not sure I buy that. Would be more comfortable if the low stayed near or south of ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Still looks good for here: Looks like southeast WI is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Maybe some wrap around for Money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Don't see much change on the new 12z guidance. Over an inch of rain here. Looks like the storm center will pass right over us. Looks like another good snow from Mankato to La Crosse. It's only gonna aggravate the flood threat later this spring on the Mississippi down this way. The QC is already bracing for the huge flooding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 yup. Its not normal for lows this weak to go negative tilt so early is it? Usually sub 1000 lows that get wound up take this nne track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Its not normal for lows this weak to go negative tilt so early is it? Usually sub 1000 lows that get wound up take this nne track. It's what's happening aloft that dictates whether the trough goes neg. tilt. This trough does so so early that the sfc low doesn't have enough time to deepen before it occludes. If b_i is around maybe he could give you a more detailed explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 12z NAM: MSN: HR 72: 32.9, -1.4, 0.29 HR 78: 33.7, -0.2, 0.47 HR 84: 32.4, -2.7, 0.11 MKE: HR 72: 33.7, -1.2, 0.14 HR 78: 35.5, 2.6, 0.33 HR 84: 35.9, -0.6, 0.21 LSE: HR 72: 31.1, -0.7, 0.27 HR 78: 30.7, -2.9, 0.32 HR 84: 31.1, -4.1, 0.05 GB: HR 72: 29.4, -1.5, 0.03 HR 78: 30.3, -2.7, 0.34 HR 84: 30.9, -3.0, 0.19 FDL: HR 72: 31.2, -1.5, 0.11 HR 78: 32.0, -0.8, 0.42 HR 84: 32.3, -2.2, 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Looking at my latest model guidance, still on track with some good snowfall amounts across the Nebrask-Kansas areas to start. Seeing an intial shot of snow across the Nebraska area on the 7th, then a stronger shot of snow on the 8-9, with snow rates approaching 2" per hour and a bit of wind associated with th snow around 20-25kts. Seeing anywhere from 9-14" possible across these regions. Grand Island is at the high end of this with potential of 14". Attached a city breakdown for the 8th-9th for the midwest. http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf. Any thoughts on my output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 LSE gets crushed on the EURO it looks like. HR 72: 1004 LOW IA/IL/MO border HR 78: 1000 LOW NW IL HR 84: 1000 LOW near Sheboygan, WI HR 90: 1000 LOW NW Michigan. Total QPF through 90: LSE: 1-1.25 E. IA: 1-1.25 Extreme. E IA: 1.25-1.5 S. WI: .75-1 N. WI: .75-1 C. WI: .75-1 S. NEB: .75-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Prins, did the UKIE have the Chicago track again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Prins, did the UKIE have the Chicago track again? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Money. what are the temps? I was seeing some warm temps on the earlier euro run for here...warmer then the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Money. what are the temps? I was seeing some warm temps on the earlier euro run for here...warmer then the gfs LSE euro qpf WED 00Z 09-MAR 3.8 -2.9 1019 67 100 0.02 552 537 WED 06Z 09-MAR 0.5 -1.1 1016 89 91 0.10 552 540 WED 12Z 09-MAR 0.6 0.3 1011 95 99 0.19 550 541 WED 18Z 09-MAR 0.9 -0.7 1006 91 99 0.23 546 541 THU 00Z 10-MAR -0.1 -5.2 1007 92 98 0.32 542 536 THU 06Z 10-MAR -2.1 -5.9 1012 85 82 0.11 543 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 EURO looks to be much colder at the 850 at least then the 0z run. HR 78: 850 0c line extends just to your south, ene up towards Oshkosh and near Green Bay (hard to tell though) You get .5-.75 QPF in this 6 hr period. HR 84: 850 0c line extends from northern ill to madison, to green lake then towards Green Bay. You are about -4 in this timeframe. Total QPF is around .5. HR 90: 850 0c line is in E. Michigan. .1-.25 qpf accross WI. I don't know about 2M temps though, maybe someone could post a euro qpf output for lse and fld? Would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 12z Euro trying to produce an area of snow with the second low. GGEM was bullish resembling its 12z run from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 EURO looks to be much colder at the 850 at least then the 0z run. HR 78: 850 0c line extends just to your south, ene up towards Oshkosh and near Green Bay (hard to tell though) You get .5-.75 QPF in this 6 hr period. HR 84: 850 0c line extends from northern ill to madison, to green lake then towards Green Bay. You are about -4 in this timeframe. Total QPF is around .5. HR 90: 850 0c line is in E. Michigan. .1-.25 qpf accross WI. I don't know about 2M temps though, maybe someone could post a euro qpf output for lse and fld? Would be great. FLD WED 00Z 09-MAR 2.0 -2.5 1021 67 92 0.01 554 537 WED 06Z 09-MAR 1.1 -0.6 1018 91 94 0.09 555 541 WED 12Z 09-MAR 1.7 1.1 1012 88 91 0.06 554 544 WED 18Z 09-MAR 2.1 1.1 1006 97 100 0.37 549 545 THU 00Z 10-MAR 2.8 2.8 1000 98 44 0.24 541 541 THU 06Z 10-MAR 0.1 -2.7 1005 91 70 0.08 543 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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