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March 7th-9th Potential Storm

wisconsinwx

By wisconsinwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

Just coming into picture for this storm on the around the 8th. Seeing some early snowfall forecast for the 8th with Omaha, Lincoln, Hayes, and Grand Island with around 8-9" or snowfall possible. Snowfall rates showing around 1.1 to 1.2" per hour for a 4-5 hour block on the 8th for these areas. Attached some snowfall projections for that area.

http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf

can you stop posting about this "smart model" until you explain it in detail? cause until you do, I'm sure most on here are taking it with less than a grain of salt.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

EURO:

HR 84: 1006 LOW near STL.

HR 90: 1002 LOW N/C. IL

HR 96: 998 LOW S. tip of LM

Interesting how it got that way. Thoughts hooiser?

Just a quick look at it...I don't really see substantial changes compared to the previous run. Probably just typical model fluctuation or noise.

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ksstormhunter

ksstormhunter

Posted
Posted

can you stop posting about this "smart model" until you explain it in detail? cause until you do, I'm sure most on here are taking it with less than a grain of salt.

Thundersnow, sorry about that, I thought I posted how this program works. I posted a topic in the Weather Forecast and Discussion areas on how it works. I hope this help, I really would love the feedback on it to make it better....

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

love the new picture, awesome TBSS. that a big hailer that was northwest of LAF this past year?

Yep, it's the 6/14 supercell.

EVENT NARRATIVE: Hail as large as softballs produced catastrophic damage to crops from near Boswell east and southeast to the Warren County line south of Templeton. An estimated 5,000 acres of corn crop was destroyed. The hail also caused significant roof damage to many houses. EPISODE NARRATIVE: A massive supercell developed over southern Benton County during the mid afternoon hours of June 14th. This storm produced grapefruit sized hail and wind speeds estimated to 100 mph. Thousands of acres of corn and other crops were destroyed.

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mnchaser

mnchaser

Posted
Posted

can you stop posting about this "smart model" until you explain it in detail? cause until you do, I'm sure most on here are taking it with less than a grain of salt.

Really no difference between this "smart model" or the JMA haha. But the smart model is actually better then that joke of a model.

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jcwxguy

jcwxguy

Posted
Posted

i had to laugh when i read this

FOR AMOUNTS...MODEL PRODUCED SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE COMPLETELY

UNREASONABLE AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AT ALL /EXCEPT TO SCARE

PEOPLE/. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE EVENT WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 TO

1...SOME OF THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND

SETTLING WILL ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Don't see much change on the new 12z guidance. Over an inch of rain here. Looks like the storm center will pass right over us. Looks like another good snow from Mankato to La Crosse. It's only gonna aggravate the flood threat later this spring on the Mississippi down this way. The QC is already bracing for the huge flooding potential.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Its not normal for lows this weak to go negative tilt so early is it? Usually sub 1000 lows that get wound up take this nne track.

It's what's happening aloft that dictates whether the trough goes neg. tilt. This trough does so so early that the sfc low doesn't have enough time to deepen before it occludes. If b_i is around maybe he could give you a more detailed explanation.

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Moneyman

Moneyman

Posted
Posted

12z NAM:

MSN:

HR 72: 32.9, -1.4, 0.29

HR 78: 33.7, -0.2, 0.47

HR 84: 32.4, -2.7, 0.11

MKE:

HR 72: 33.7, -1.2, 0.14

HR 78: 35.5, 2.6, 0.33

HR 84: 35.9, -0.6, 0.21

LSE:

HR 72: 31.1, -0.7, 0.27

HR 78: 30.7, -2.9, 0.32

HR 84: 31.1, -4.1, 0.05

GB:

HR 72: 29.4, -1.5, 0.03

HR 78: 30.3, -2.7, 0.34

HR 84: 30.9, -3.0, 0.19

FDL:

HR 72: 31.2, -1.5, 0.11

HR 78: 32.0, -0.8, 0.42

HR 84: 32.3, -2.2, 0.25

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ksstormhunter

ksstormhunter

Posted
Posted

Midwest.gifLooking at my latest model guidance, still on track with some good snowfall amounts across the Nebrask-Kansas areas to start. Seeing an intial shot of snow across the Nebraska area on the 7th, then a stronger shot of snow on the 8-9, with snow rates approaching 2" per hour and a bit of wind associated with th snow around 20-25kts. Seeing anywhere from 9-14" possible across these regions. Grand Island is at the high end of this with potential of 14". Attached a city breakdown for the 8th-9th for the midwest.

http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf. Any thoughts on my output.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

Money.

what are the temps?

I was seeing some warm temps on the earlier euro run for here...warmer then the gfs

LSE euro qpf

WED 00Z 09-MAR   3.8    -2.9    1019      67     100    0.02     552     537    
WED 06Z 09-MAR   0.5    -1.1    1016      89      91    0.10     552     540    
WED 12Z 09-MAR   0.6     0.3    1011      95      99    0.19     550     541    
WED 18Z 09-MAR   0.9    -0.7    1006      91      99    0.23     546     541    
THU 00Z 10-MAR  -0.1    -5.2    1007      92      98    0.32     542     536    
THU 06Z 10-MAR  -2.1    -5.9    1012      85      82    0.11     543     534

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Moneyman

Moneyman

Posted
Posted

EURO looks to be much colder at the 850 at least then the 0z run.

HR 78: 850 0c line extends just to your south, ene up towards Oshkosh and near Green Bay (hard to tell though) You get .5-.75 QPF in this 6 hr period.

HR 84: 850 0c line extends from northern ill to madison, to green lake then towards Green Bay. You are about -4 in this timeframe. Total QPF is around .5.

HR 90: 850 0c line is in E. Michigan. .1-.25 qpf accross WI.

I don't know about 2M temps though, maybe someone could post a euro qpf output for lse and fld? Would be great.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

EURO looks to be much colder at the 850 at least then the 0z run.

HR 78: 850 0c line extends just to your south, ene up towards Oshkosh and near Green Bay (hard to tell though) You get .5-.75 QPF in this 6 hr period.

HR 84: 850 0c line extends from northern ill to madison, to green lake then towards Green Bay. You are about -4 in this timeframe. Total QPF is around .5.

HR 90: 850 0c line is in E. Michigan. .1-.25 qpf accross WI.

I don't know about 2M temps though, maybe someone could post a euro qpf output for lse and fld? Would be great.

FLD

WED 00Z 09-MAR   2.0    -2.5    1021      67      92    0.01     554     537    
WED 06Z 09-MAR   1.1    -0.6    1018      91      94    0.09     555     541    
WED 12Z 09-MAR   1.7     1.1    1012      88      91    0.06     554     544    
WED 18Z 09-MAR   2.1     1.1    1006      97     100    0.37     549     545    
THU 00Z 10-MAR   2.8     2.8    1000      98      44    0.24     541     541    
THU 06Z 10-MAR   0.1    -2.7    1005      91      70    0.08     543     539

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