Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yeah not likely... Talking anything of importance.. Hey - if you guys want to wait around and think this thing will become more favorable for us in the south more power to ya. I've seen all I have to to know this isn't going to end well and after feb. 20th I'll be dammed if I'm duped again into thinking its possible to get a small shift south. Yeah, in terms of a significant event I'd rather be north of you at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Looks like it gonna rain here...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Looking at 18z GFS bufkit, it's all rain for MKE. About .5 QPF snow for MSN and then .5 ice and .1 rain. For LSE it's .8 or so QPF all snow for the main storm, with .15-.2 qpf for the WAA (all snow) Other than the .15 zr and .1 snow, it's all rain for MKE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Can we pull it off? Sure. But is that the likely outcome? Probably not. We have a god awful Pacific ( for those farther se ) for starters. In winter we can fight it at times but this time of year? Ha. We need a little help via Canada and that crappy azz Pacific is locking it up. Leaves us with two options. 1. A system that closes off completely that can stay on a more easterly course along or near i70 a bit farther south for here and a little bit north of you. 2. A system coming into Texas alot farther to the south that turns NNE when reaching the MS river or just east of there and or a Gulf low AND more importantly it HAS to be strengthening and thus not another one of these POS garbage lows that are weakening/weak like we have currently. Sorry but these weakening systems are not it. It is amazing how many of these we see too every winter. far too many shoot their load too quick. One of the things i do miss about living by the coast as the ocean kinda helps avoid that crap. Just have to fight the rn/sn line more often but it atleast usually pays off with a nice biggie every so many years unlike this place which can go decades without a decent payoff. lol Basically we need alot to happen. Like you i am not even thinking about hoping for something that has a very slim chance of happening. This is not our winter and i don't see that changing now. I'll still watch it though. I don't see this going far enough south. Once the wave amplifies and goes negative tilt where it's being shown, it's all over. Best case scenario would be something like the 12z GGEM but I'm not holding my breath for that...low probability event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 ya it sucks alot of that is rain, but oh well. getting closer to chasing season. Yeah it's getting closer to be sure. I feel rather greedy wanting more snow after such an epic season. I guess it shows that no matter how much you get in a season, you still want more. Feel like some sort of a weather crackhead lol. I think we may get some wet snow at the tail end of the system, but the main band of accumulations will set up pretty far northwest of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 this thing would have to go WAY south for us to get close anything good here, It ain't happening. look at how strong of a LLJ we have over a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I don't see this going far enough south. Once the wave amplifies and goes negative tilt where it's being shown, it's all over. Best case scenario would be something like the 12z GGEM but I'm not holding my breath for that...low probability event. If it ends like this current junk ( very weak ) i could see it ending up farther south but that wont do most any good either unless you get real lucky and thus see Today/Detroit again. And yeah the 12z GGEM would offer the best chance ( closed low ) but like you said it is low probability. Thus not something i would hang my hat on. As said i'll still watch it but that is about it. I am just hoping we can change that Pacific quick enough before time really does run out up this way etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 It's going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Looks like it gonna rain here...again. Yep. Last thing we need right now. If the thing can't pull any severe up into our neck of the woods, which isn't happening, it's another non event for us. At least the current storm got me my first measurable snow in March in 3 years. (That's fudging spring futility a little, because I did have 2" on 4/6/09, I believe.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I'll take the rain with this one, probably a little back end snow but nothing more than a grass whitener Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 0z HR 84 NAM has a 1000 low in E. IA. Looks like rain for most of S. WI. surface line is already near Oshkosh at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 OAX to northern IA cash in again on this run. amazing consistency continues. almost has the stacked lows look at 84hrs but not quite, close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 It's way too odd how the models are so consistent. Look at the last storm where the models were flipping each run etc, then look at this current storm. I'm guessing this is a way easier pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Congrats MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 21z SREF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yep. Last thing we need right now. If the thing can't pull any severe up into our neck of the woods, which isn't happening, it's another non event for us. At least the current storm got me my first measurable snow in March in 3 years. (That's fudging spring futility a little, because I did have 2" on 4/6/09, I believe.) Run of the mill t'storms/rain look like a good bet. We've missed out on the "real" heavy rainfall lately here in LAF...hopefully that continues. The Wabash is in a precarious state as it is right now. And yes, nice to see March (spring) snow again around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 It's way too odd how the models are so consistent. Look at the last storm where the models were flipping each run etc, then look at this current storm. I'm guessing this is a way easier pattern? This doesn't have the phasing questions that the current event had. With the amped up baroclinic zone and the negative tilt wave, the northern solutions might have to be favored. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but this may be a setup that the NAM might handle better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 N. Iowa to La Crosse to Wausau east towards Green Bay and points north look to be the best spot for heavier snows imo. Espically if the NAM/EURO pan out. If the GFS/GEM/UKIE track ends up more right, shift that down towards Milwaukee. A good bet someone is going to get quite a bit of snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Mentally i'm prepared for 6+ inches of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Mentally i'm prepared for 6+ inches of snow... lol, what a potential "disaster" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 Mentally i'm prepared for 6+ inches of snow... I'm sure there is no mental preparation needed....until you have to shovel it, especially if it is a heavy, wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yep. Last thing we need right now. If the thing can't pull any severe up into our neck of the woods, which isn't happening, it's another non event for us. At least the current storm got me my first measurable snow in March in 3 years. (That's fudging spring futility a little, because I did have 2" on 4/6/09, I believe.) What? Were not in a drought anymore? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 such a sharp cutoff of the rain/snow line for me (00z nam gives me 5-6" snow, followed by .90" of rain, followed by another inch of snow ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 GFS is even farther north then the 18z GFS. 1000 low in NW IL. Gonna rain here. Ends up visiting FDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Money rain rain rain for you I'm still in a pretty good spot for snow.crap is going to be heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yup, I knew the EURO was going to be right, so meh. Get rid of this snow and get ready for some baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 My kitchen is full of lights and seed trays with plants growing... I don't want to put up low tunnels until i know the heavy snow is done so they don't crush them. I'd like to have most cool wx crops in the ground asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 From what i can tell, this model seems to show less snow for here... still wants to wrap good snow back into Iowa. have to see what the clown maps show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 You're in great shape unless the NW trend continues, which I highly doubt. Seems like the models are in agreement of taking this thing through S. WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Looks like a pretty nice soaker for eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. Hopefully we can get some embedded rumblers. St. Louis and points south look to be in line for another bout of severe weather. This would be a very dangerous weather pattern a month or two from now. Areas from Omaha through Ft. Dodge, Mankato/Rochester, and over towards La Crosse seem to be sitting pretty for a nice thumping of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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