wisconsinwx Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Madison gets a real good dumping on the recent GFS models as well, with about a foot there. Good luck Badger Blizzard and Madtown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Looking like mostly rain for east-central and southeast Iowa, even if the farther south GFS pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yeah the GFS shows a pretty nice snow event from Des Moines to La Crosse, and up towards Green Bay. Looks like another heavy soaking of cold rain here, and then dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'll have to pull out the clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z GEM says congrats Hawkeye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z GEM says congrats Hawkeye! Northern Burbs of Chicago get a nice hit as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z GFS: La Crosse: WAA Snows: .21 QPF Main Storm: 1.01 QPF Total QPF: 1.23 Madison: (QPF, 2M, 850) HR 87: 0.02, 31, -2 HR 90: 0.07, 30, -1 HR 93: 0.18, 31, 0 HR 96: 0.50, 30, -1 HR 99: 0.35, 31, -1 HR 102: 0.20, 32, 0 HR 105: 0.04, 32, -1 HR 108: 0.03, 30, -6 HR 111: 0.01, 27, -7 HR 114-120: 0.07, 25, -8 WAA Snows: .10 Main Storm: 1.47 Snow: 1.09 Fzr Rain: 0.18 Rain/Snow: 0.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The snow line looks too far southeast relative to the low position on that GEM map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Money- Probably a good 10 inches... Its going to be wet and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The snow line looks too far southeast relative to the low position on that GEM map. DVN mentioned that the GEM has a slight cold bias in the mid range in yesterday morning's AFD. That could be what we're seeing here. Either way this will be interesting to see where it plays out. I'd be feeling pretty good about things from central Iowa into central Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 EURO is a tad east so far with the low at hr 72 compared to 0z 84. HR 72: 1000 LOW OK/KS border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 HR 90: 1004 LOW S. IA. 0z HR 102: 1000 LOW S. IA A bit weaker, but overall, pretty identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 HR 96: 1004 LOW NW IL. A tad farther south then 0z. LSE gets hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 HR 102: 1004 LOW over MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 With the high to the north and the rather weak nature of the storm, still not understanding the sharp turn north once it gets into OK/KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 With the high to the north and the rather weak nature of the storm, still not understanding the sharp turn north once it gets into OK/KS. I'm sure a met could provide a better answer but look at the trough...it's pretty amplified and trying to go negative tilt. Surface lows tend to get pulled farther north in that situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Money- What do precip amts look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Money- What do precip amts look like? main storm euro qpf LSE WED 00Z 09-MAR 0.9 -2.4 1019 92 100 0.13 552 537 WED 06Z 09-MAR -0.2 -1.3 1015 90 99 0.25 551 539 WED 12Z 09-MAR -0.9 -2.4 1012 92 98 0.37 546 537 WED 18Z 09-MAR 0.5 -4.0 1011 79 86 0.11 545 536 THU 00Z 10-MAR 0.4 -5.8 1015 78 77 0.01 544 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Thanks.. Looks like a nice cement job for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 trying not to get my hopes up as this is still 4 days away and with how the previous storms have worked out and even the whole winter, until flakes start to fall, nothing is a given. At the same time it would be nice to get a good one to end things on a high note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 I will say that up until recently I was hugging the Euro, but its inconsistencies in recent storms have given me reason to question any model. We'll just have to see how this plays out. Could easily be a Dakotas, Central Minnesota, and Northern Wisconsin storm or a Nebraska, Northern Iowa, Central Wisconsin, Northern Michigan storm, and an outside chance of further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 18z NAM goes crazy with WAA snows for eastern NE/western IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I will say that up until recently I was hugging the Euro, but its inconsistencies in recent storms have given me reason to question any model. We'll just have to see how this plays out. Could easily be a Dakotas, Central Minnesota, and Northern Wisconsin storm or a Nebraska, Northern Iowa, Central Wisconsin, Northern Michigan storm, and an outside chance of further south. Ya, but the Euro has been very consistent with this storm. It doesn't seem to be budging any! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Those WAA snows should be interesting I think the GFS was showing a pretty good amt last nite on the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Ya, but the Euro has been very consistent with this storm. It doesn't seem to be budging any! Didn't it shift pretty far south on the 0z run last night? I think it went through Green Bay the run prior, and the most recent run it went through MKE, so it did shift 100-200 miles, at least at this longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 0z EURO last night had the low in FDL pretty much, 12z shifted down into MKE. GFS/GEM etc go through Chicago. No idea about the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 84 HR NAM is probably 60 miles NW and 4 MB stronger then the 12z GFS at hr 90. NAM looks more like the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 It's hard to imagine that Milwaukee's projected high is 43 for Wednesday. Need a drastic change in order to avoid a lengthy changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 1000mb sfc low on the southern IA/northern MO border at 84hr. eastern NE would be looking at >18" of snow on this run with 2" liquid amounts just north of OAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Didn't it shift pretty far south on the 0z run last night? I think it went through Green Bay the run prior, and the most recent run it went through MKE, so it did shift 100-200 miles, at least at this longitude. I stand corrected! It did shift south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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