Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March 7th-9th Potential Storm


wisconsinwx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

12z GFS:

La Crosse:

WAA Snows: .21 QPF

Main Storm: 1.01 QPF

Total QPF: 1.23

Madison: (QPF, 2M, 850)

HR 87: 0.02, 31, -2

HR 90: 0.07, 30, -1

HR 93: 0.18, 31, 0

HR 96: 0.50, 30, -1

HR 99: 0.35, 31, -1

HR 102: 0.20, 32, 0

HR 105: 0.04, 32, -1

HR 108: 0.03, 30, -6

HR 111: 0.01, 27, -7

HR 114-120: 0.07, 25, -8

WAA Snows: .10

Main Storm: 1.47

Snow: 1.09

Fzr Rain: 0.18

Rain/Snow: 0.20

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The snow line looks too far southeast relative to the low position on that GEM map.

DVN mentioned that the GEM has a slight cold bias in the mid range in yesterday morning's AFD. That could be what we're seeing here. Either way this will be interesting to see where it plays out. I'd be feeling pretty good about things from central Iowa into central Wisconsin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the high to the north and the rather weak nature of the storm, still not understanding the sharp turn north once it gets into OK/KS.

I'm sure a met could provide a better answer but look at the trough...it's pretty amplified and trying to go negative tilt. Surface lows tend to get pulled farther north in that situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Money-

What do precip amts look like?

main storm euro qpf LSE

WED 00Z 09-MAR   0.9    -2.4    1019      92 	100    0.13 	552 	537    
WED 06Z 09-MAR  -0.2    -1.3    1015      90      99    0.25 	551 	539    
WED 12Z 09-MAR  -0.9    -2.4    1012      92      98    0.37 	546 	537    
WED 18Z 09-MAR   0.5    -4.0    1011      79      86    0.11 	545 	536    
THU 00Z 10-MAR   0.4    -5.8    1015      78      77    0.01 	544 	532    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

trying not to get my hopes up as this is still 4 days away and with how the previous storms have worked out and even the whole winter, until flakes start to fall, nothing is a given. At the same time it would be nice to get a good one to end things on a high note.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will say that up until recently I was hugging the Euro, but its inconsistencies in recent storms have given me reason to question any model. We'll just have to see how this plays out. Could easily be a Dakotas, Central Minnesota, and Northern Wisconsin storm or a Nebraska, Northern Iowa, Central Wisconsin, Northern Michigan storm, and an outside chance of further south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will say that up until recently I was hugging the Euro, but its inconsistencies in recent storms have given me reason to question any model. We'll just have to see how this plays out. Could easily be a Dakotas, Central Minnesota, and Northern Wisconsin storm or a Nebraska, Northern Iowa, Central Wisconsin, Northern Michigan storm, and an outside chance of further south.

Ya, but the Euro has been very consistent with this storm. It doesn't seem to be budging any!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ya, but the Euro has been very consistent with this storm. It doesn't seem to be budging any!

Didn't it shift pretty far south on the 0z run last night? I think it went through Green Bay the run prior, and the most recent run it went through MKE, so it did shift 100-200 miles, at least at this longitude.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...