wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Okay, I figured I might as well start this now. The first system is not trending toward the favor of the Western Great Lakes, and I actually got a decent event with the first storm thread I started. The CWA just west of MKX (I believe it is based in LaCrosse) believes this storm could be rather significant. Obviously, though, this is about a week out so anything can happen in terms of track or strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12Z Euro has a lakes cutter. It has been flip flopping with it the past few runs though. So we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Anyone who's on these boards from the Dubuque area? I think that's one city that is due for a major storm (I know you are probably tired of hearing me say who I think is due, but it's still interesting discussion). I think they just missed out on the Groundhog Day storm, the one a week ago, and the one last Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Anyone who's on these boards from the Dubuque area? I think that's one city that is due for a major storm (I know you are probably tired of hearing me say who I think is due, but it's still interesting discussion). I think they just missed out on the Groundhog Day storm, the one a week ago, and the one last Sunday. LOL! I missed out on them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 How many inches for daddy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 LOL! I missed out on them too. I apologize! It seems a lot of the northern areas of the Plains and Great Lakes have not had an overly significant winter weather event. Once you get north of Green Bay in Wisconsin, they have missed out as well I believe, and Northern Lower Michigan has been a bit too far north for the major systems as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 How many inches for daddy? 0-15 inches right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I apologize! It seems a lot of the northern areas of the Plains and Great Lakes have not had an overly significant winter weather event. Once you get north of Green Bay in Wisconsin, they have missed out as well I believe, and Northern Lower Michigan has been a bit too far north for the major systems as well. Yeah February was awful. I had about 2".Northern areas this past month just did not do good at all. unless maybe you are in a snowbelt. Im not sure how well they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 How many inches for daddy? Are you talking about snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z GEM is weaker but further south than GFS but in about the same location as the Euro but stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 pretty good consensus with the euro and gfs bringing a mix and drysloot for many runs now 2 by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 southern SD gets absolutely crushed with snow on the 0z GFS as the sfc low is crawling along and takes over 12hrs to cross NE from west to east and then it weakens as it moves into IA and across lake michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 I'll bet this the one late winter system that doesn't see a SE trend, and it's the one where I actually need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 0z ggem slower & further n at 180 - 192 than gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Well, John Dee... Time to change this one up to this morning. This one never looked like a hit down here to MI. Had cutter pasted all over it. Another area of low pressure is indicated to roll from the central Plains into the central Midwest by Tue-Wed. The track and strength of this low are still up for grabs, with the main idea still being one of around 2-5" of snow to impact areas like the southern ½ to 2/3rds of MN, WI and lower MI as well as northern IA. Rains would fall to the south of the snow area and things to the north would be fairly quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 0z ECM has this one maxed out west of MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 0z ECM has this one maxed out west of MSP. If we could actually get some good moisture return, we might be able to have something more than a see text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I apologize! It seems a lot of the northern areas of the Plains and Great Lakes have not had an overly significant winter weather event. Once you get north of Green Bay in Wisconsin, they have missed out as well I believe, and Northern Lower Michigan has been a bit too far north for the major systems as well. Yeah all the major storms have missed us to the east, south, and even west this year. We usually get a big storm, but so far it doesn't look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 One thing that seems certain is that this storm brings down some pretty artic air in its wake. Winters last true artic blow?? Although still plenty of time for the storm to get weaker and weaker and if that were they case I would guess the artic intrusion would be weakened a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIU Jeff Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z GFS, and CMC are about on par with each other. GFS seems to strengthen the Sfc-Low west of the Mississippi River valley, yet it has a large Polar Vort over Hudson Bay, so the run it throws out doesn't exactly make sense. Where as the ECMWF, and CMC both have the Polar Vort much further north. CMC has a massive dryslot into Iowa with a probable TROWAL across NW Iowa, S Minnesota, and Central Wisconsin. If a run like that verifies, likely frontogensis would occur, and there would be a very intense band of snow across Central Wisconsin as noted by the 500mb height spread over that area. Overall, the model agree moderately on a track, but given that this event is nearly a week out, and given spread on actual timing of the event (18hr difference between 12z GFS and 0z ECMWF), its safe to say that I will only hypothesize on this event. Severe wx is another story, and the GFS isn't setup for such Mesoscale features. Therefore, I am waiting till the higher resolution models (NAM, SREF, etc) come into focus before even mentioning anything about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z GFS, and CMC are about on par with each other. GFS seems to strengthen the Sfc-Low west of the Mississippi River valley, yet it has a large Polar Vort over Hudson Bay, so the run it throws out doesn't exactly make sense. Where as the ECMWF, and CMC both have the Polar Vort much further north. CMC has a massive dryslot into Iowa with a probable TROWAL across NW Iowa, S Minnesota, and Central Wisconsin. If a run like that verifies, likely frontogensis would occur, and there would be a very intense band of snow across Central Wisconsin as noted by the 500mb height spread over that area. Overall, the model agree moderately on a track, but given that this event is nearly a week out, and given spread on actual timing of the event (18hr difference between 12z GFS and 0z ECMWF), its safe to say that I will only hypothesize on this event. Severe wx is another story, and the GFS isn't setup for such Mesoscale features. Therefore, I am waiting till the higher resolution models (NAM, SREF, etc) come into focus before even mentioning anything about it. With the AO coming down as of late ( was well into the + zone ) i would go with the farther south PV. JMHO Usually the PV hangs in the Artic and not Canada when it is well into the positive side. This ofcourse can change. Just keep a eye on the AO because the more into the + side it is the farther north the PV is typically and when it goes south ( negative ) so does the PV. Models have struggled a bit with this lately too. Thus why models are still struggling with this next system a few days out. basically don't get too comfortable yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 MPX MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR THIS EXPECTED COLORADO LOW TYPE STORM...THE EC CONTINUES TO BE TO THE NORTHWEST...IN FACT EVEN SHIFTING FURTHER THAT DIRECTION WITH ITS 12Z RUN. ITS ENSEMBLE ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWEST. THE EC IS FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT GEFS MEMBERS...AND THAT ENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION TRENDED SOUTHEAST WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS. THIS PROVIDES MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS...BUT IN GENERAL...A STILL WET PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN FOR DAYS IN THE MARCH 7TH- 9TH FRAME. THE OVERLAP ON THE GUIDANCE IS THE MN FORECAST AREA. OVER 50 PERCENT OF THE 00Z AND 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVE AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN 24 HOURS TO THE TWIN CITIES...WITH NEARLY 30 PERCENT PRODUCING AN INCH. THE MAGNITUDES OF MOISTURE...AND HEIGHT AND SURFACE PRESSURE DEPTHS...CONTINUE TO EXCEED THOSE OF THE MAGNITUDES OF WINTER STORM COLORADO LOWS FOR THE AREA. SO WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN A LARGER PRECIPITATION MAKER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...HAVE ALREADY PLACED LIKELY WORDING FOR THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FURTHER NORTHWEST EC...BUT GENERALLY HAVE TREATED THAT AS AN OUTLIER. Edit: So basically, I give this until Saturday. If King Euro still has the northern track, congrats Grand Forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 This storm is the first truly legitimate classic Colorado Low of the winter across the plains and into the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 This storm is the first truly legitimate classic Colorado Low of the winter across the plains and into the Great Lakes. I know.... I hope it goes bonkers . 12z euro kinda reminds me of april 6th-7th 1997 for up here except colder. Track is similar h500 is a bit different but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 This storm is the first truly legitimate classic Colorado Low of the winter across the plains and into the Great Lakes. GFS says welcome to LBF, baro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 As soon as I saw that 988 pop up on a frame I knew this sucker would be raining on me, silver lining is it looks like a few inches of backend snow. Can't get my goldilocks storm, 4-6 too weak and south, this one is looking to strong and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I know.... I hope it goes bonkers . 12z euro kinda reminds me of april 6th-7th 1997 for up here except colder. Track is similar h500 is a bit different but not by much. The record breaking spring that was 1997 up there. What an amazing run they had--perhaps too amazing. Some similarities but that event had a much beefier GOM fetch and stronger diabatic heat release in the low levels--plus a good phase with the northern polar vortex. Still some similarities on the surface low track once it headed north through the plains. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1997/us0406j3.php I am excited about this storm threat though for the plains whether it goes more Euro or GFS. GFS says welcome to LBF, baro One of us three will do well with this storm--we can at least say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The record breaking spring that was 1997 up there. What an amazing run they had--perhaps too amazing. Some similarities but that event had a much beefier GOM fetch and stronger diabatic heat release in the low levels--plus a good phase with the northern polar vortex. Still some similarities on the surface low track once it headed north through the plains. http://www.meteo.psu...97/us0406j3.php I am excited about this storm threat though for the plains whether it goes more Euro or GFS. One of us three will do well with this storm--we can at least say that Ya i'm super pumped either way even if it stays south fargo should get a decent amount of snow. How about that cold on the gfs, another arctic discharge right on top of the northern plains probably would end up 30-40 degrees below average. The cold just doesn't want to let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I'll take the prospects of storms with this if it isnt going to snow, a 35 and rain can hit the bricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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