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MEI

Jan/Feb : -1.523

closest actuals:

1971 : -1.526

1976 : -1.392

2008 : -1.378

1956 : -1.307

1989 : -1.294

Trends:

2011 -1.624 -1.523

1976 -1.617 -1.392

1956 -1.441 -1.307

1974 -1.94 -1.801

1962 -1.083 -.999

1999 -1.08 -1.126

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June 2009 was cool around here but you have to go a ways back for a really chilly November.

1995 and 1996 were both pretty cold though they were not in the top 10...both averaged under 44.0....the only other two Novembers after 1940 to average below 44 were 1951 and 1962.

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1995 and 1996 were both pretty cold though they were not in the top 10...both averaged under 44.0....the only other two Novembers after 1940 to average below 44 were 1951 and 1962.

November 1976 was just outside the top ten.

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I really hope this isn't true, I'd love a repeat of 2010 but I know that'd probably be impossible. That's like my ideal Summer right there, although July was bone dry. Summer is supposed to be hot, not like a 2009 (UGH).

I always thought El Nino's & La Nina's didn't have an effect on the East, and that explained why there's always an "equal chance" of things in long range forecasts.

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coldest Novembers since 1910...

41.6 in 1917...very cold winter...

41.7 in 1976...very cold winter...

41.8 in 1933...very cold winter...

42.3 in 1910...cold winter...

42.5 in 1967...very cold winter...

42.7 in 1936...mild winter...

42.7 in 1911...very cold winter...

43.0 in 1996...mild winter...

43.2 in 1962...very cold winter...

43.5 in 1951...mild winter...

43.6 in 1995...very cold winter...

43.9 in 1925...cold winter...

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I really hope this isn't true, I'd love a repeat of 2010 but I know that'd probably be impossible. That's like my ideal Summer right there, although July was bone dry. Summer is supposed to be hot, not like a 2009 (UGH).

I always thought El Nino's & La Nina's didn't have an effect on the East, and that explained why there's always an "equal chance" of things in long range forecasts.

While every summer isn't going to work out this way,the summer following an El Nino winter has a warmer signal in general than after a La Nina winter for our area.

You can see the exceptions with some cooler post Nino summers and hotter post Nina summers.

El Nino Composite

La Nina Composite

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If it never gets above 85 I'll be a happy camper. I'm pretty sure that won't happen but ...

My thinking goes like this - after the next 2-4 weeks most of the cold air should be dumped off the continent and then it warms up for the season. If that initial warmup dries out the surface and the soil moisture is down there's really not much to stop it from being an especially warm late spring early summer unless it stays wet.

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