A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 30" near Howard Beach for PD II..... Haha, you know Noreaster measured that and he usually downplays it a little, it could have been 60" for all we know jk man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Chris I stayed up all night watching that storm and JFK was recording FIVE INCHES PER HOUR -- sort of like some of the events this winter lol, but that one lasted longer. Sugar was literally pouring down from the skies in solid sheets all night long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Chris I stayed up all night watching that storm and JFK was recording FIVE INCHES PER HOUR -- sort of like some of the events this winter lol, but that one lasted longer. Feb '83 had 5" per hour at JFK.... OFC, Jan 96 had probably 4" per nhour rates at its peak and Dec 26 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Feb '83 had 5" per hour at JFK.... OFC, Jan 96 had probably 4" per nhour rates at its peak and Dec 26 also. Feb 83 was awesome and might have been the KING for thundersnow. That was the first really big one for here. I remember we got like 22-24 inches here. Same with Jan 96 which btw was undermeasured. Dec 26 dont get me started lol-- I mean they had 15.5 or so at JFK but it was more like 18.5 The really bad measurement was Jan 26 which was measured at 10.5 or so but was more like 16.5 LOL And then there was one event they skipped measuring altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Feb 83 was awesome and might have been the KING for thundersnow. That was the first really big one for here. I remember we got like 22-24 inches here. Same with Jan 96 which btw was undermeasured. Dec 26 dont get me started lol-- I mean they had 15.5 or so at JFK but it was more like 18.5 The really bad measurement was Jan 26 which was measured at 10.5 or so but was more like 16.5 LOL And then there was one event they skipped measuring altogether. Absolutely..... Jan 96 and Dec '10 were probably undermeasured due to massive winds and drifting. For example, I measured 24" (and surrounding towns got 24") but it truly looked like 30" fell on December 26th... and Jan 1996, you know where we both stand.... Brooklyn had 30" easily.....Radar clearly showed it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I remember the March 2001 debacle like it was yesterday. Friday evening before the storm was to hit on Sunday, QPF amounts on the AVN and Eta were over 2 inches. However, if folks remember correctly, the excessive QPF was not due to a single 6 HR period of heavy precip, but instead, 48-54 HR of persistent 0.15-0.2 in. 6 HR amounts. That issue made me a bit skeptical from the start. However, it did not help when Bastardi's daily discussion headline (which was free at that time) stated "What do you get when you mix the Blizzard of 66 with the 1992 Noreaster" or something to that extent. What was also impressive about that system was how the surface low made a complete stop in its path and began heading SW for a period, sending light snow into the NYC area for much of Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 To this day, my dad still talks about when Kocin was on the TWC saying we were going to get 2 feet and we ended up with 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 To this day, my dad still talks about when Kocin was on the TWC saying we were going to get 2 feet and we ended up with 2 inches. I have it on tape somewhere. I believe his exact quote was "And when all of this is said and done, somewhere in northern NJ could end up with 2 feet of snow." That storm was over-the-top hyped. I don't think we'll ever see such hype again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I have it on tape somewhere. I believe his exact quote was "And when all of this is said and done, somewhere in northern NJ could end up with 2 feet of snow." That storm was over-the-top hyped. I don't think we'll ever see such hype again. He actually said 30" or more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES… Quote of the year, not even close, I will remember these words forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Quote of the year, not even close, I will remember these words forever. the GFS' initialization that morning over the CONUS was perfect. Fact of the matter is, HPC gave up on the storm when the Euro did, and they FREAKED out when they saw the storm the gfs spun that morning and decided to just pray that the gfs was up to its usual stupidness. They should have looked at the SREFS which made a huge jump at 9Z and thought twice about just throwing out the gfs. They almost guessed right as the ukmet was still tossing turds but then the ggem came way west and you could just smell it coming. Even with the euro being stupid at 12z you could just feel it coming. What gets me even more was HPC trying to throw out the 15z srefs and 18z runs because of the same "errors". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 What gets me even more was HPC trying to throw out the 15z srefs and 18z runs because of the same "errors". The 15z SREFs I guess I can partially understand because of their dependence on the "bad" 12z data. But the 18z runs were still trending west dramatically and there is no excuse for tossing them as well. Basically you're saying you might have the worst initialization scheme in all of meteorology...if the 12 and 18z initialization of your associations weather models can both be so dreadfully wrong as to produce a solution that wild within 60 hours. The whole thing was a joke and I suspect we will never know the true meaning behind the entire thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The 15z SREFs I guess I can partially understand because of their dependence on the "bad" 12z data. But the 18z runs were still trending west dramatically and there is no excuse for tossing them as well. Basically you're saying you might have the worst initialization scheme in all of meteorology...if the 12 and 18z initialization of your associations weather models can both be so dreadfully wrong as to produce a solution that wild within 60 hours. The whole thing was a joke and I suspect we will never know the true meaning behind the entire thing. data and initialization are different things. The 12z data was never deemed to be faulty, it was the initialization and the interpretation of the gfs and to some extent the NAM at 12z. The 15z srefs using the 12z data and going insane like they did was a HUGE sign the GFS was on to something, regardless if some of them use the gfs global parameters at initialzation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 March 6 2001 http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/projects/snowstorm/ Is this the storm you folks are looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 March 6 2001 http://apollo.lsc.vs...ects/snowstorm/ Is this the storm you folks are looking at? yes, all those insance amounts to the north were supposed to be in the nyc area and at one point philly and dc too. They were also hyping the winds and tides which never materialized either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The 15z SREFs I guess I can partially understand because of their dependence on the "bad" 12z data. But the 18z runs were still trending west dramatically and there is no excuse for tossing them as well. Basically you're saying you might have the worst initialization scheme in all of meteorology...if the 12 and 18z initialization of your associations weather models can both be so dreadfully wrong as to produce a solution that wild within 60 hours. The whole thing was a joke and I suspect we will never know the true meaning behind the entire thing. The only real error that day was human error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Quote of the year, not even close, I will remember these words forever. They should have used that excuse for their long range winter forecast too Hell, most of the people on this board should have LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Dec 26, 2010 was the antidote to March 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Dec 26, 2010 was the antidote to March 2001. No.... that would be Feb 03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 No.... that would be Feb 03. That too lol-- we had quite a few of them. But I dont think any of them had as widespread area of 20"+ snowfalls as March 2001 was supposed to have. We havent really seen that since January 1996. When was the last time there was a 20"+ snowfall from Sussex, NJ to Montauk Point, NY; from Poughkeepsie, NY to Toms River, NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 That too lol-- we had quite a few of them. But I dont think any of them had as widespread area of 20"+ snowfalls as March 2001 was supposed to have. We havent really seen that since January 1996. When was the last time there was a 20"+ snowfall from Sussex, NJ to Montauk Point, NY; from Poughkeepsie, NY to Toms River, NJ? The January Blizzard of 1996. It really shows us how rare that blizzard was. BUT, IMO, DEC 2010 beat Jan 1996 in terms of winds and snow rates, its shocking, if Dec 2010 had slowed a bit longer say 4 more hours of 2-3" per hour rates for NYC metro, Newark NJ would have easily hit 30"+ John's location easily 36+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The January Blizzard of 1996. It really shows us how rare that blizzard was. Yeah, that was it I think-- it exceeded Feb 1983, PD2 and pretty much everything else for sheer east coast coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yeah, that was it I think-- it exceeded Feb 1983, PD2 and pretty much everything else for sheer east coast coverage. Feb 1899 likely beat Jan 1996, IMO.... 33" at Elizabeth NJ, 34" at Cape May, and I am SURE widespread 30" all over NJ and NYC metro. so, Feb 1899 is the greatest storm of all time for New Jersey or tied with Jan 96 and Dec '10 and Feb 6 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 The two biggest KU storms in my life time are 96 and PDII. Everything else is not even close. Unfortuantly, I was in FL at the Daytona 500 during PDII. I spent the day in Disney World so I really can not complain, other than the fact that these HECS only come around about once every 10+ years or so. With the Boxing Day event, the severe wind really hurt the accumutlations and it had such a sharp cuttoff on the western side that the difference between major snows and nothing was less than a half hour drive. Last winter, DC got two major KU events and our area got in on several of them as well, but.....again none of them had impacts like 96 or PDII over such a wide area. I cann't really recall 96 because I was only 10 at the time, but PDII had a very long duration. March 01 could have been another one of those storms. Had the 8 day out bomb verified a few weeks ago, we could have had another Boxing Day event on our hands. Even if the low bombed out severely as some runs indicated, it was too fast a mover. The historic ones have the cold high pressure locked in and awesome blocking. Hopefully next winter we can have plenty of threats show up in the medium range that actually materialize instead of hoping the models trend one way or another even in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 No.... that would be Feb 03. Disagree... The modeling turnaround with Dec 26 2010 made it the exact opposite of March 2001...literally it's counterpart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Disagree... The modeling turnaround with Dec 26 2010 made it the exact opposite of March 2001...literally it's counterpart. John, I was referring to the whole east coast for that storm. But I do see your point about how it all came together at the last minute; which December 2010 did, unlike March 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Disagree... The modeling turnaround with Dec 26 2010 made it the exact opposite of March 2001...literally it's counterpart. Yeah, this is what I meant by antidote lol. Of course for it to be a perfect antidote it would have hit DC, BWI also and screwed Boston, but we had enough of that last winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 John, I was referring to the whole east coast for that storm. But I do see your point about how it all came together at the last minute; which December 2010 did, unlike March 2001. Yeah, for me I look more at our local area...and March 2001 fell apart in the 9th inning leaving us with nothing, while Dec 26 was basically a 6 run 9th inning comeback with a walkoff win. I remember posting a weathertap WV satellite imagery on Dec 25 early morning--and somebody quoted it and said "it's like watching a walkoff home run in slow motion". I had the biggest, dork-like smile on my face. Awesome storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 LOL, John. I bet all of us did who were right here. A better analog would be.... you want the college homecoming queen, who's a genius and can be incredible to look at, she's probably great as f uck in the bedroom. March 2001 said, "F uck you, NYC, let me go f uck SNE instead." Dec 2010.... the queen comes back, as good as says, "honey, sorry about 2001, let's make up now and make it hard and memorable." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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