IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 It's been ten years to the day since the biggest snowstorm bust in my life time. I was still in school at the time and I can remember them closing the schools in advance for two days. We got about 2" of snow total IMBY. I can remember watching the weather channel in disbelief as Paul Kocin kept pushing the snows further and further northwest. Discuss your memories of the KU storm that never was and what went wrong with the modeling to cause such a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Kocin said northeastern New Jersey would see possibly over 30 inches of snow.... They were expecting it to surpass January Blizzard of '96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I believe the snow moved farther northeast, not northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I think you are about 5 days too early--but anyway--I knew something was off when round 1 changed to sleet and frz rain here on the Sun night before and that was not forecast....the next day (Mon)featured almost nothing but some drizzle and 33 degrees as the coastal took forever to get going which was what ended up screwing most people...we ended up on the western fridge of the good stuff which started around 5pm that evening, still got about 8 inches...still a huge bust from what they were hyping...CT highways were closed to trucks on a day when only drizzle was falling--schools closed, businesses closed...what a black eye to weather forecasters.... Eastern 1/2 of CT and most of New England did well. - I had just started reading JB back then-he busted hard too... - Anyone have any radar loops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I remember being on wright weather when that one busted. They called it there first and then we got to watch all the forecasters slowly backpeddle on something that everyone knew wasn't going to happen. I remember that Tuesday going to work and watching the light snow fall and melt on contact due to the sun angle and lack of intensity. We ended up with maybe 2 inches. Worst hyped storm/bust ever IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 My colleague and I hit this one on th head..wasn't a bust for Albany. As a matter of fact areas just to the NW through NE GOT HAMMERED. Many most locations had more SNOW from this storm than they got from the "Superstorm of Mar '93" widespread 25-35 inch totals. NOGAPS actually predicted it very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I think you are about 5 days too early--but anyway--I knew something was off when round 1 changed to sleet and frz rain here on the Sun night before and that was not forecast....the next day (Mon)featured almost nothing but some drizzle and 33 degrees as the coastal took forever to get going which was what ended up screwing most people...we ended up on the western fridge of the good stuff which started around 5pm that evening, still got about 8 inches...still a huge bust from what they were hyping...CT highways were closed to trucks on a day when only drizzle was falling--schools closed, businesses closed...what a black eye to weather forecasters.... Eastern 1/2 of CT and most of New England did well. - I had just started reading JB back then-he busted hard too... - Anyone have any radar loops? yeah, he is four days early http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2001/05-Mar-01-NationalRadarImagery.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 In Kocins' defense, he never actaully said NJ or SNY or NE was gaurenteed to get the bLizzard, he spacifically repeated, over and over that some where between DC and N NE was going top get a BEC's like storm and where the best potentials were for that given day. So at 2 days out NJ NJY were bulls eyed. It was the MSM (Main Stream Media) that whipped this one up as a gaurenteed hit for our area. 48hr out is NEVER a sure hit. Just look at the storms inverse - Dec 26th 2010, at 24 hrs out, NECP said the GFS was on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 the 500mb evolution looks pretty awesome with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I remember being on wright weather when that one busted. They called it there first and then we got to watch all the forecasters slowly backpeddle on something that everyone knew wasn't going to happen. I remember that Tuesday going to work and watching the light snow fall and melt on contact due to the sun angle and lack of intensity. We ended up with maybe 2 inches. Worst hyped storm/bust ever IMO. I recall that well. DT was adamant about it busting on WWBB. Bolaris got fired because of that storm if I recall correctly. If I am wrong I apologize ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 the 500mb evolution looks pretty awesome with this storm. never got its act together to be the true phase it was supposed to be. By the time the 500 mb energy got its act together, it was too late for the nyc area to see the amounts that were forecasted. I believe Rainshow from Mt. Holly speaks openly about that forecast and how he begged the office not to put out exact snow amounts 48 hours out but the office did anyway and it was all downhill from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 One of the best March storms of the past 40 years here. What bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 One of the best March storms of the past 40 years here. What bust? well, you are east of the immediate nyc area, it was a bust here for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 HPC hugging the avn (n/k/a GFS) was their first mistake. HPC Discussion, Friday, March 2, 2001</FONT> ZCZC NFDPMDEPD ALL TTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 05 THRU 09 MAR 2001 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NCEP...NWS...WASHINGTON DC 2:27 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2001...PRELIMINARY VERSION. POTENTIALLY SERIOUS E COAST STORM STARTING LATE ON DAY 3 (SUN). THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG COASTAL WINDS CONTINUES FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC.. ...MODEL OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION... WE NOW HAVE HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL INDEED BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST...MAYBE EVEN A BLIZZARD...IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD. THE VERY STRONG BLOCK NW OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAYS...BUT CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER NOAM THE ENTIRE TIME. CONCERNING THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO THREE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT. THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE AVN/MRF NOGAPS IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MIDDLE SCHOOL IS PORTRAYED BY THE CANADIAN WHICH DROPS A COLD VORTEX SOUTHWARD ACROSS WV INTO NC DAYS 3-4. WHILE IT STILL HAS ITS MAIN SURFACE STORM FAR OUT AT SEA...IT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AT 500 MILLIBARS TO THE LATEST AVN RUN THAT DOES INDEED SHOW AN INTENSIFYING STORM. LAST NIGHTS UKMET AND MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SCHOOL. THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A DEEP COLD VORTEX ACROSS THE ERN LAKES DAY 3. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUPPRESS STRONG SYS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT HEAVY PCPN DOES NOT GET INTO NYC AND NEW ENG SUN-TUE. UNTIL TODAY...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS MORE LIKE THE NOGAPS. WHEN WE PUT EVERYTHING TOGETHER...THE NEW AVN RUN HAS ACTUALLY REINFORCED THE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS SCENARIO. THE 60HOUR ETA HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE MID ATLANTIC SUN. WHAT COULD MAKE THIS A HISTORICAL STORM IS THAT THE VERY COLD DEEP VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE IS FORECAST BY THE MRF/AVN/ECMWF/NOGAPS TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THEN MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO DAY 3 WHILE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OCCURS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE CLOSEST ANALOG TO THIS IS AT 500 MILLIBARS IS THE BLIZZARD OF JAN 29-30 1966. THE FEB 6 1978 CASE...WHICH BURIED SOUTHERN NEW ENG/NYC/EASTERN PA...IS A CLOSE SECOND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 1978 AND THE 1966 CASES IS THAT THE MAIN VORT ENERGY ALOFT DROPPED SOUTHEAST AND CLOSED OFF OVER THE DELMARVA REGION IN 1978 RATHER THAN TURNING SOUTH AFTER A WESTWARD TREK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY(1966). THERE IS MINUS 40C AIR AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TREMENDOUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE CONUS. THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF HEAVY PCPN...COUPLED WITH DE- STABILIZATION AS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...COULD GENERATE A VERY POWERFUL STORM SUN NIGHT INTO TUE FOR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS. WE FEEL THAT THE AVN SCENARIO IS BASICALLY CORRECT. EAST COAST...WATCH OUT! ...EAST COAST STATES... USING THE AVN AS OUR MAIN TOOL...WE LOOK FOR HEAVY SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS. THERE MAY BE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ALONG WITH WINDS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER INLAND ..MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM VA THRU THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW WIND CHILLS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE HIGH TEENS TO MID 20'S. THERE COULD EVEN BE THUNDERSNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED A FOOT FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS. THE AVN HAS TARGETED NJ AS AN AREA WHERE AS MUCH AS TWO FEET COULD FALL. THE BACK EDGE OF SNOWFALL FROM WV INTO ERN OH WILL BE SHARP AND A FUNCTION OF WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS SETS UP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. FARTHER SOUTH...VERY COLD AND WINDY WITH HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND MUCH OF FL. FOR TUE (DAY 4)... SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER THE SRN NEW ENG/MID ATLANTIC AREAS. COLD AND WINDY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVEN INTO WED (DAY 5) AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. CONTINUED COLD WITH HARD FREEZES IN NRN FL AND THE GULF COAST REGION. ANOTHER STORM IS DEPICTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES DAYS 6-7 WITH THE EAST REMAINING VERY COLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Everybody was dreadfully slow reacting to the models trending towards a lesser event...very much like the slow reaction towards the trending upwards on the boxing day blizzard. I remember telling people I was suspicious of it 4 days out because the usual NW trend would of course cause the higher totals to be inland...as it turned out it was more of a NE trend as someone else said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I knew it was going to bust because temperatures were warmer than forecast and March 1962 was an analog at the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I remember the NOGAPS had a 942 low at the benchmark, and cold enough thickness for an all snow event. Then one run of the GFS had an 988mb low ready to bomb-out off of Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 One of the best March storms of the past 40 years here. What bust? Couldn't agree more. At the time I was working nights and left Port Jeff around 3:30 PM to get to my job on the South Shore. Just as I pulled out of my driveway the mixed precipitation was becoming mostly snow. I arrived at work roughly a half hour later, took care of some business, and around 7:00 PM decided not to fool around and take a chance on getting stuck. It was of course dark now and snow was coming down pretty decently...at least two inches had accumulated. I drove home quite slowy and there was probably close to 3" on the ground back home. Went in the house and put on the news and noted (per TWC radar) that the snow I was getting was a just-barely kind of set-up...the precip extended no more than 5 to 10 miles to my west and was quasi-stationary. Then, something that still stands out in my mind 10 years later played over Ch 2 news...they showed a live camera feed from a little Port Jefferson shopping area with snow and wind whipping...and the Ch 2 news announcer stating "an area that almost never sees snow is seeing snow"...referring to Port Jeff....what insight on his part! Anyway, the snow must have lasted for close to 40 hours and almost never fell at a clip more than moderate. Just under 14" accumulated out here...with the maximum amounts on L.I. closer to 16". The storm was the exclamation point to an excellent 2000-01 winter and the opening salvo to an unprecedented string of outstanding winters out here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The Euro/ETA had that one nailed at 72h out for the most part. Back then it was called the "ETA-X" since the operational run went to 60h and the extended version went to 84h. Problem was that the AVN had been performing well all winter and everyone believed it over the Euro and ETA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The Euro/ETA had that one nailed at 72h out for the most part. Back then it was called the "ETA-X" since the operational run went to 60h and the extended version went to 84h. Problem was that the AVN had been performing well all winter and everyone believed it over the Euro and ETA. You sure about that? HPC disco quotes the ETA at 60 hours "THE 60HOUR ETA HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE MID ATLANTIC SUN." It also talks about the Euro THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE AVN/MRF NOGAPS IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Jan 2008 is still the biggest bust that I can remember in my time tracking weather seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Jan 2008 is still the biggest bust that I can remember in my time tracking weather seriously. Let me tell you, March 2001 is Jan 08 times ten. I tracked that online, via NWS, and TWC (Don't laugh) and AccuWx, and of course, Joe Bastardi didn't help the cause by saying it had a chance to surpass every blizzard we have ever seen. and Kocin saying NE NJ could exceed 30 inches didn't help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 You sure about that? HPC disco quotes the ETA at 60 hours "THE 60HOUR ETA HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE MID ATLANTIC SUN." It also talks about the Euro THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE AVN/MRF NOGAPS IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. Well it might have still been a tad too far south at 60-72h...but you can see how they are mentioning huge snow for New England already, when the AVN was keeping it all south of here and crushing the DC to NYC corridor. Even they busted a bit at the end for NYC, I still think they were giving a foot of snow 24h out or so, but they had taken DC out of the game a couple days before then eventually Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Jan 2008 is still the biggest bust that I can remember in my time tracking weather seriously. oh man-you would have cried for days in 3/01...and the fact that it was march with nothing else on the table after that made it even worse and then we had the winter of 01-02 to deal with..... :axe: :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Forecasted to get 2 feet of snow and ended up with 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 then there are the good busts, terrible terrible analysis by HPC Looked over the wv right after the 12z gfs went nuts and it was clear the gfs had the right idea, the second vort coming down from canada was clearly on a path to phase, models couldn't see it for days because of its big brother out ahead of it and once it came into the data grid in the US the GFS went nuts NITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES… INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH…ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA…WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS…THE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION…WITH THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY…WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF…WITH ALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN (EXCEPT NOT THE 12Z VERSION)/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO CONSIDERED USEFUL TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. THIS APPROACH DISREGARDS THE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER AND WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 12Z GFS REGARDING THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD…AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z NAM WHICH LIES NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Well it might have still been a tad too far south at 60-72h...but you can see how they are mentioning huge snow for New England already, when the AVN was keeping it all south of here and crushing the DC to NYC corridor. Even they busted a bit at the end for NYC, I still think they were giving a foot of snow 24h out or so, but they had taken DC out of the game a couple days before then eventually Philly. Will, I think we've learned by experience down here not to be very optimistic about March snowstorms lol. Maybe if that storm had happened a month earlier, the block would have been stronger and the end result different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 oh man-you would have cried for days in 3/01...and the fact that it was march with nothing else on the table after that made it even worse and then we had the winter of 01-02 to deal with..... :axe: :axe: Well 02-03 made it all worth it..... snow from October to April, including an Xmas night surprise snowstorm, 28 inches on Presidents' Day here and 8 inches in April. I had about 60" that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Well 02-03 made it all worth it..... snow from October to April, including an Xmas night surprise snowstorm, 28 inches on Presidents' Day here and 8 inches in April. I had about 60" that winter. 30" near Howard Beach for PD II..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.