IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I'm normally one of the last people to throw the towel in on winter but I think after next week and the threat that follows the one on Monday were about done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 then again, we always have the hr 222 euro, cutoff snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 yeah this winter is on its last breath, but i dont even care, it was a great winter. I hope we get a cutoff noreaster or something like last march which had extreme winds, because this winter has already snowed itself out. its over. Whatever hope we had is toast with the pac flow and the NAO looking like the ninas of the past. Nina finally won out, but man, it took forever. Lets hope the waters in the pac continue to warm to a slightly negative nina or a slightly positive nino and that we keep the tri-pole in the north atlantic so next year we can pick up where we left off in January. If it goes to complete neutral, we could see a 2001-2002 redux where we can't find any vorts anywhere. RIP 2010-2011, you were loved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 then again, we always have the hr 222 euro, cutoff snowstorm LOL, just saw that, what a joke this model has become in the long range. Its worse than the gfs with weenie solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 LOL, just saw that, what a joke this model has become in the long range. Its worse than the gfs with weenie solutions. yeah lmao what a weird solution, primary to international falls with the southern wave to the 40/70 with no blocking/50/50 low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 its over. Whatever hope we had is toast with the pac flow and the NAO looking like the ninas of the past. Nina finally won out, but man, it took forever. Lets hope the waters in the pac continue to warm to a slightly negative nina or a slightly positive nino and that we keep the tri-pole in the north atlantic so next year we can pick up where we left off in January. If it goes to complete neutral, we could see a 2001-2002 redux where we can't find any vorts anywhere. RIP 2010-2011, you were loved! Agree, it's been over for a while in my opinion. Truly an epic winter though, now if only we can get some spring temps one of these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Agree, it's been over for a while in my opinion. Truly an epic winter though, now if only we can get some spring temps one of these days. March ninas, cold and wet. April's dont do much better. Going to be a much cooler summer than last year, so it may not be until June and July till we feel some heat, unlike last April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Agree, it's been over for a while in my opinion. Truly an epic winter though, now if only we can get some spring temps one of these days. NYC received a 3"-6" snow event less then 10 days ago. Over in terms of major storms but a 4" snow event is nothing to sneeze about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 NYC received a 3"-6" snow event less then 10 days ago. Over in terms of major storms but a 4" snow event is nothing to sneeze about. a choo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 People are really spoiled with all these mega storms. I will gladly take 4 inches, not looking for a HECS. I never ever ever turn down snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 New GEFS is actually quite wet for a low resolution means, probably a good indication that the higher QPF outputs are still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 NYC received a 3"-6" snow event less then 10 days ago. Over in terms of major storms but a 4" snow event is nothing to sneeze about. I received roughly an inch, so I guess I should have mentioned "for my area". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I received roughly an inch, so I guess I should have mentioned "for my area". Yeah forgot it was a small area of snow. For NYC and surrounding, 3"-6", less then 10 days ago. Very nice snowfall for late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yeah forgot it was a small area of snow. For NYC and surrounding, 3"-6", less then 10 days ago. Very nice snowfall for late February. I had 8"...really was a nice powdery snowfall.. Still not completely giving up, it's only March 2nd and who knows if we see a rogue event later in the month. The pattern isn't looking very favorable, however, as the Strong La Niña finally seems to have taken control. It's been a gradual process but the NAO/AO and PNA have all shifted to values more consistent with ENSO climatology. That being said, many La Niña years did have a solid stretch of wintry weather in March such as 1956, 1960, 1967, and 1996...whether that happens remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I had 8"...really was a nice powdery snowfall.. Still not completely giving up, it's only March 2nd and who knows if we see a rogue event later in the month. The pattern isn't looking very favorable, however, as the Strong La Niña finally seems to have taken control. It's been a gradual process but the NAO/AO and PNA have all shifted to values more consistent with ENSO climatology. That being said, many La Niña years did have a solid stretch of wintry weather in March such as 1956, 1960, 1967, and 1996...whether that happens remains to be seen. The funny thing is the nina seems to be weakening rapidly but it seems to be too late. What do we have to do to get decent winter weather around here now, put out the sun? Anyway, did you see that Seattle got its coldest February since February 1989? I wonder if they will be getting any snow in March-- its not very likely over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The funny thing is the nina seems to be weakening rapidly but it seems to be too late. What do we have to do to get decent winter weather around here now, put out the sun? Anyway, did you see that Seattle got its coldest February since February 1989? I wonder if they will be getting any snow in March-- its not very likely over there. The Niña has weakened some but is holding its own: Region 3.4 is at -1.2C and Region 4 is at -1.0C. We've seen an incursion of milder waters into the eastern regions, but that's pretty typical for a mature La Niña. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf I wouldn't be surprised if the Pacific NW got a bit more snow, as the 12z ECM shows a strong -PNA around Day 6. This may fade with the MJO moving into Phases 7/8 so that might be their last chance. The problem for us is that we've lost all the blocking that defined this winter. We have a very progressive flow across the North Atlantic which is preventing the cold anomalies in Canada from migrating southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The Niña has weakened some but is holding its own: Region 3.4 is at -1.2C and Region 4 is at -1.0C. We've seen an incursion of milder waters into the eastern regions, but that's pretty typical for a mature La Niña. http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf I wouldn't be surprised if the Pacific NW got a bit more snow, as the 12z ECM shows a strong -PNA around Day 6. This may fade with the MJO moving into Phases 7/8 so that might be their last chance. The problem for us is that we've lost all the blocking that defined this winter. We have a very progressive flow across the North Atlantic which is preventing the cold anomalies in Canada from migrating southward. Brian (Vawxman) was talking about the strongest cold anomalies in the CONUS being on the east coast for the last ten days of March, so we'll see what that can bring. Wouldn't it be funny if we got a snowstorm on March 26-27? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It's hard to tell but it looks like the 18z NAM would be a higher QPF solution than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Agree, it's been over for a while in my opinion. Truly an epic winter though, now if only we can get some spring temps one of these days. Maybe it's just me but how could winter be over awhile ago when some areas had 7''-8'' last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 How are the winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Brian (Vawxman) was talking about the strongest cold anomalies in the CONUS being on the east coast for the last ten days of March, so we'll see what that can bring. Wouldn't it be funny if we got a snowstorm on March 26-27? 1974 had a snowstorm on 3/29 and some snow in April...1959, 1970, 1974. 1984, 1996 all had snowfalls on 3/27-29... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 1974 had a snowstorm on 3/29 and some snow in April...1959, 1970, 1974. 1984, 1996 all had snowfalls on 3/27-29... Lets Not forget 2003 after a record snowfall in February March had only 3.5 and April 7th had 4 -7 inches region wide heaviest amounts in central NJ .... It is surprising how some folks are ending snowfall chances on March 2 - http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 No Real chance for snow on 3/7 per 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 12z NAM came in much wetter overall than 6z although measurable precip only begins to enter this region around hr 81 or so. Still a long way to go. I feel pretty confident that we won't see any significant snow out of this but an excessive rainfall event can not be ruled out. The differences have to do with the tilt of the trough. Here on 6z at 84hrs you can see the trough is still neutral to slightly positive. Now on 12z, the trough is already slightly negivitve at 78hrs and quite negitive at 84hrs below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 12z NAM came in much wetter overall than 6z although measurable precip only begins to enter this region around hr 81 or so. Still a long way to go. I feel pretty confident that we won't see any significant snow out of this but an excessive rainfall event can not be ruled out. 0z Euro has only .63" of rain for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 0z Euro has only .63" of rain for NYC. The Euro has been all over the place with this event, hard to trust its solution. The GFS has been pretty consistent since it backed off on the high QPF amounts. The Euro had a 2"+ rain event at 12z. I don't know why people still put so much stock in one model, it may have been the king in the past but this year it has scratches on its face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Maybe it's just me but how could winter be over awhile ago when some areas had 7''-8'' last week? Again, I forgot you guys got a good snowstorm last week. I got roughly an inch out of that storm, so its felt like winter has been over for a while in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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