earthlight Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Wrote this a few minutes ago http://www.nymetrowx.blogspot.com/ Long Term Storm system moves east from the Central United States towards the Northeast US by Saturday with increasing chances of precipitation. Not completely sold on the higher precipitation amounts or severity of precipitation rates as the h5 signature on most guidance is extremely disjointed. Included 40% chance of precipitation Saturday and Sunday. Worth noting that guidance has attempted to warm sector our area Saturday with precipitation back to the west along the cold front--support for warmer temperatures without precipitation for a time period. As the front nears the area, guidance is hinting at a frontal wave developing along the boundary with a strengthening low level jet and support for heavier precipitation. If there were to be heavy synoptic precipitation with this event, it would likely be later Sunday into Monday with this feature developing near or just off the coastal plain. With cold air becoming entrained into the system as this wave develops, northwest locations may see a flip to frozen precipitation before it ends. That being said, not totally sold on this scenario yet, but it is wise to at least consider it given the general signal on the GEFS and ECMWF OP and means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Wrote this a few minutes ago http://www.nymetrowx.blogspot.com/ Long Term Storm system moves east from the Central United States towards the Northeast US by Saturday with increasing chances of precipitation. Not completely sold on the higher precipitation amounts or severity of precipitation rates as the h5 signature on most guidance is extremely disjointed. Included 40% chance of precipitation Saturday and Sunday. Worth noting that guidance has attempted to warm sector our area Saturday with precipitation back to the west along the cold front--support for warmer temperatures without precipitation for a time period. As the front nears the area, guidance is hinting at a frontal wave developing along the boundary with a strengthening low level jet and support for heavier precipitation. If there were to be heavy synoptic precipitation with this event, it would likely be later Sunday into Monday with this feature developing near or just off the coastal plain. With cold air becoming entrained into the system as this wave develops, northwest locations may see a flip to frozen precipitation before it ends. That being said, not totally sold on this scenario yet, but it is wise to at least consider it given the general signal on the GEFS and ECMWF OP and means. Very nice! Yea it sucks, wish the models would show a much more amplified low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Euro brings a coastal just off of LI. A few inches for our area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Regarding January 26-27th, there was a East based Negative NAO on its way out, and that is what it came down too. We also had a strong +PNA and amplified MJO signal moving through phases 8 and 1. It wasn't bad pattern overall, if you consider more than whether the NAO is just east or west based. These signals are currently forecast to be much weaker with the storm on 3/7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 6Z DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 That would be awesome, but I just don't think were going to get it done. Of course it had to be one of the worst models to be the first big model to show a major hit. Let's see what the 12z suite brings us. "Crosses finger" On a side note, look how all over the place the GFS has been even the last four runs, gives you the idea that the details still have a long way to go before being resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 6Z DGEX a lot of rain save the highest elevation, and I am not talking Mt. Zucker, 800+ feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 a lot of rain save the highest elevation, and I am not talking Mt. Zucker, 800+ feet really, I thought that looked pretty good, maybe I'm reading the temps wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 really, I thought that looked pretty good, maybe I'm reading the temps wrong? You are only looking at the surface. 850's are torching, actually its a big ice storm for the north even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 a lot of rain save the highest elevation, and I am not talking Mt. Zucker, 800+ feet zucker only has 350' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 zucker only has 350' i was saying it takes 800+ feet, zucker is no where near that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS continues the idea of keeping most of the heavy QPF to the west of us and then misses us to the east with the last wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z GFS continues with 6z. East with 2nd wave along the front and very weak coastal. Barely scrapes the coast with drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I sincerely hope the GFS is up to its usual BS of downplaying the event for one way or another five days out. I know alot of people don't want to see the heavy rain but if we cann't get frozen stuff I would much rather have a 5" rainstorm than a boring 1-2" job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Another GFS fantasy storm that wont happen. Right before truncation it has this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yeah, it is treating this second "fantasy storm" much differently than 6z. If we manage to get our big rain storm out of the event five days from now, this could add to the flooding problems. This would be quite the dissapointment in my eyes if all we ended up with was a bit of rain. I'm not giving up on this one five days out but you can see the models trending towards a less organized system in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS ensemble mean doesn't have anything particularly exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Since the DGEX was dismissed earlier as all rain/ice here is a graphic that would argue for lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The DGEX snow graphics have a bias of showing accumulating snow when temp profiles clearly indicate ZR. Do not use them. Look at the 850 temps on the DGEX, and you can clearly see it shows temps aloft too warm for snow in the entire NYC metro area for the entire event. However, sfc temps are cold enough for ZR in many areas. Since the DGEX was dismissed earlier as all rain/ice here is a graphic that would argue for lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 New CMC tracks the initial wave right over us and then passes whats leftover way out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 NOGAPS http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 i was at least looking forward to a decent rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 yes, and didn't realize it was yesterdays run either. I'm looking for a QPF bomb one way or another. Despite your comments yesterday, there are a lot of interesting weather things to track besides snow. New run is out and its a lot colder then last night. Thats for sure. 108: 120: 132: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Over 2" of rain on 12z euro for NYC area. Precip ends by 18z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 still not a QPF bomb on the euro but I like the track of the low, would definitly be significant but not enough rain to cause widespread flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 still not a QPF bomb on the euro but I like the track of the low, would definitly be significant but not enough rain to cause widespread flooding. Euro has over 2" of rain for LGA and NYC. Thats close to a qpf bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Euro has over 2" of rain for LGA and NYC. Thats close to a qpf bomb. lol it's all relative. If that was all frozen it would be a definite QPF bomb but beeing as most of it falls as rain it's not that out of the ordinary. 4" + like the GFS was showing yesterday is a real QPF bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The setup is terrible of an east coast snowstorm; if only we had a weak block, or a weak pna ridge, instead of big time + and - PNA.... Moisture is there no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The setup is terrible of an east coast snowstorm; if only we had a weak block, or a weak pna ridge, instead of big time + and - PNA.... Moisture is there no doubt. yeah this winter is on its last breath, but i dont even care, it was a great winter. I hope we get a cutoff noreaster or something like last march which had extreme winds, because this winter has already snowed itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 yeah this winter is on its last breath, but i dont even care, it was a great winter. I hope we get a cutoff noreaster or something like last march which had extreme winds, because this winter has already snowed itself out. that's a good way to put this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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