NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 6Z GFS shows strong HP in Southeast Canada slow moving LP to the south - something to keep an eye on at least for any interaction with cold enough air getting involved especially in the suburbs.... HP is even strengthining from 144 - 150 - that 0 850 is suspect IMO ..... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06144.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06150.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Didn't see 00Z GFS Ensembles anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 the control, along with a few other ensembles continue to bark at 6z. The difference is in the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 New GFS looks like it has backed off some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Hour 138 GFS surface: Hour 144 Surface: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 strange precip field--probably wont even come close to verifying.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 GFS continues to push this idea of a wave coming up the front. In the other march thread (again, why do we need two threads on March?), this has been talked about for several days. Actually, I think this trends closer to the coast as the H5 field is definately negative enough to bring the surface low up into boston, not east of it, which would give us more precip and still take advantage of the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 i have a question... does that show snow?? : 850's and surface look below zero... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 i have a question... does that show snow?? : 850's and surface look below zero... Verbatim, surface is colder then upper levels due to high pressure up north. I would think this is rain to heavy sleet and a little snow for the last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 i have a question... does that show snow?? : 850's and surface look below zero... show snow for where? soundings are just coming, out, give me a sounding station, and i will tell you. Earliest it would show snow is 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 KLGA soundings: Hour 138 and hour 144 MON 06Z 07-MAR 0.0 1.3 1013 95 99 0.55 554 543 MON 12Z 07-MAR -2.2 -0.7 1012 95 90 0.38 550 540 1st bold is surface temp 2nd bold is 850's 3rd bold is 6 hour precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 that's pretty good for this type of event this time of year. Windy as balls too in the 850 and 900 mb layer which should have no problem mixing down. Hopefully the gefs, ggem, and euro show something like this or at least a nod to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 KLGA soundings: Hour 138 and hour 144 MON 06Z 07-MAR 0.0 1.3 1013 95 99 0.55 554 543 MON 12Z 07-MAR -2.2 -0.7 1012 95 90 0.38 550 540 1st bold is surface temp 2nd bold is 850's 3rd bold is 6 hour precip still some precip at 144, not much but some places still snowing. Love that its right in the middle of the morning commute, mayhem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 still some precip at 144, not much but some places still snowing. Love that its right in the middle of the morning commute, mayhem! Only .01" falls after hour 144, so I left that out. Regardless, soundings show a good period of sleet to snow for LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 earthlight, can we merge this thread with the euro/gfs discussion from yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Verbatim, surface is colder then upper levels due to high pressure up north. I would think this is rain to heavy sleet and a little snow for the last 2 hours. show snow for where? soundings are just coming, out, give me a sounding station, and i will tell you. Earliest it would show snow is 138. thanks... mine's KISP... probably the same thing as KLGA, if not warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 thanks... mine's KISP... probably the same thing as KLGA, if not warmer... ISP is warmer then LGA by a good amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 this storm is going to be tough for eastern areas and western areas because you have the best precip and the worst temps or the best temps and worst precip. You have to be right in the middle as it is progged now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Looks like the GEFS mean has trended colder and closer to the coast, good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 GEFS says the first two weeks of march are very :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 appears UKIE is slower and closer to the coast could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 not surprising, CMC is fully phased with not trailing wave. CMC has been over phasing all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 How much rain for us on the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 How much rain for us on the CMC? who cares, its not snow, and CMC is terrible this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 P10 says its the boxing day blizzard in March GEFS have some pretty intense members and still a big spread. Control continues to be wetter but also warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2005/08-Mar-05-SeaLevelPressure.html Good analogue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 http://www.njfreeway...elPressure.html Good analogue Agreed. Things are nearly perfect the way they are right now....tug over the vort a bit and we get into the heavy stuff instead of SNE. But its going to be marginal. A ton depends on the strength of the, now 2, vorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Still potential here. At this range, that's pretty much all you can ask for. Sure, it looks to be marginal but that's to be expected heading into march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 With a strong HP in southeast canada pushing in with a slow mover LP up the coast - colder and frozen 2nd half to this event - here is EWR 12Z GFS output: this is heavy rain to heavy sleet and a few inches snow on top - frozen starts hours after midnight monday ...what a recipe for a trecherous monday morning commute.... http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kewr.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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