phlwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Meh. Chilly second wave of rain if the GFS is right. The Euro has been hinting at a slower frontal passage with a more wrapped up solution compared to the GFS, which separates two lows along the main frontal zone and gives us a couple of rounds of rain. Either way, as of now no snow looks likely on this storm around Philly...and it's doubtful we'll see anything for the next 10 days given what the models are showing. There *could* be some overrunning north of I-78 on Friday night/early Saturday if the GFS is right but temps are probably too warm south of that for any frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Still too early to say yet, at least it looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Starting a thread about a storm and having the first word in the post be "Meh" is making me wonder why you started a thread for it. As most are aware, the March 5-7 time frame has some bad history for our region. I'd be happy to not even have a threat during the 10 year anniversary of the biggest snowstorm bust in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethlehemBlizzard Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Pretty amazing amount of QPF being spit out by the 6z GFS. I know it is one run of the GFS, but it is still pretty wild. That scenario would surely bring some flooding with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 If it's not going to snow I think many in here would rather have record heat then cold rain. 80's and sun rather 40's and rain give me that anyday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12 Z GFS went back to being off the coast with no precipitation inland on the western side of the area of low pressure but with temperatures cold enough if there was.. however the coastal sections do pick up moisture.. and further NE as well. 6 Z GFS was more in the lines of an interior snow/ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Still lots of QPF although most of it misses just to the east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 What's funny is there's actually a High in a decent place. 12z GFS hr 144 has a 1037mb HIGH over SE Canada. What does the ECM have in terms of rainfall? Flooding is not so unlikely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 GFS individual Ensembles Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 JB's snow within ten days of a winter thunderstorm may just come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 JB's snow within ten days of a winter thunderstorm may just come true Broken clock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Broken clock? Even a blind squirrel finds his nuts once in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Where's tombo with my 12z Euro update? 12z GGEM cuts inland like the GFS, but doesn't develop a secondary on the front through 144 hours. Isn't a known GFS bias to want to develop lows on stalling frontal boundaries anyway? That's our only hope for snow, and even witha redeveloper we run the risk of the mid-levels screwing things up as that High slides east since there's no good blocking. The GFS is trying to bring in a little bit of a -NAO by the weekend (more pronounced on the 6z of course) but honestly it's probably not enough. Sorry for the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 4 of the 12z GEFS members actually bring accumulating snow into Philly. I'm still not buying it, but hey they're fun to look at: 2 more are close calls, brings nothing to Philly but a littlle bit just N&W. Like I said, I'm going to need to see the other models start to develop a coastal like the GFS is before I get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 EC is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 EC is all rain. How much? Flooding threat at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 How much? Flooding threat at all? No, heaviest well west I believe. I only gave it a cursory glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 No, heaviest well west I believe. I only gave it a cursory glance. Thunderstorms? We've got to end up with at least one of the three, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 FWIW eh.. its only tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Where's tombo with my 12z Euro update? 12z GGEM cuts inland like the GFS, but doesn't develop a secondary on the front through 144 hours. Isn't a known GFS bias to want to develop lows on stalling frontal boundaries anyway? That's our only hope for snow, and even witha redeveloper we run the risk of the mid-levels screwing things up as that High slides east since there's no good blocking. The GFS is trying to bring in a little bit of a -NAO by the weekend (more pronounced on the 6z of course) but honestly it's probably not enough. Sorry for the once past presidents day im done with snow....but the 12z euro is a cutter to cleveland...then it forms waves of low pressure along the front, it has temps in the 60s out ahead of it....it then sweeps a cold front through, we get cold for a couple days then another cutter comes in at the end of the period...total rain for the 10 days period 1-2 inches...a heck of a lot more in wpa and northern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 once past presidents day im done with snow....but the 12z euro is a cutter to cleveland...then it forms waves of low pressure along the front, it has temps in the 60s out ahead of it....it then sweeps a cold front through, we get cold for a couple days then another cutter comes in at the end of the period...total rain for the 10 days period 1-2 inches...a heck of a lot more in wpa and northern pa so basically, wash, rinse, repeat, ad infinitum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 so basically, wash, rinse, repeat, ad infinitum? That's the pattern these days more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 so basically, wash, rinse, repeat, ad infinitum? basically cold to warm then cutter, then cold to warm then cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 basically cold to warm then cutter, then cold to warm then cutter. that won't make people sick at all. I'll take the periodic 60s however. Even up this way the sun is strong enough to keep us above 40 on the cold days. We'll see how Thursday is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 that won't make people sick at all. I'll take the periodic 60s however. You realize that the only reason people get colds in the winter is because they're inside most of the time, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12z ECMWF Ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18 Z Total QPF If this were to come true prepare to row your boats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18 Z GFS QPF Flood anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18 Z GFS QPF Can you save that image instead of posting the link? It's sometimes fun to reminisce on old threads and see the actual maps people were discussing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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