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Severe Weather Thread: 03/03/2011 - 03/06/2011


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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 37

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

455 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 455 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

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I'm a little surprised at the tornado watch if only because the most recent SPC outlook doesn't even have a 2% in some of that area.

I see in the LSR's that there were reports of a low rotating wall cloud in the affected area for a time and SPC thinks the LLJ will increase this evening.

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New svr t storm watch replaces former tornado watch and extends from sw Illinois to nw Arkansas until 2 am. Seems more logical given the current parameters. Still expecting this coming Tuesday to be a rather significant svr wx day particularly if this first system does not completely scour out the gulf and it has time to send back some quality moisture.

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Just pushed out new smartmodel output, showing an area of marginal instability SW Arkansas through S. Arkansas. Thinking we will still continue to see strong thunderstorm development, with maybe some Isolated Severe within that area. Possible wind of 45kts and .75" hail within the storms. Most will just be strong thunderstorms, remaining below severe intensity. Thoughts?

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Just pushed out new smartmodel output, showing an area of marginal instability SW Arkansas through S. Arkansas. Thinking we will still continue to see strong thunderstorm development, with maybe some Isolated Severe within that area. Possible wind of 45kts and .75" hail within the storms. Most will just be strong thunderstorms, remaining below severe intensity. Thoughts?

I'm going to be very honest. In order for your smartmodel to be taken seriously, you are going to have to inform us on how it works. I'm fairly certain none of us have ever heard about a smartmodel, and I know to some of us, it appears as though you are simply plotting areas using Paint.

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I'm going to be very honest. In order for your smartmodel to be taken seriously, you are going to have to inform us on how it works. I'm fairly certain none of us have ever heard about a smartmodel, and I know to some of us, it appears as though you are simply plotting areas using Paint.

Lmao I was waiting haha

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I'm going to be very honest. In order for your smartmodel to be taken seriously, you are going to have to inform us on how it works. I'm fairly certain none of us have ever heard about a smartmodel, and I know to some of us, it appears as though you are simply plotting areas using Paint.

Yeah it would be nice to know because with reasoning it could be another good tool.

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Rough day for Mardi Gras festivities in New Orleans...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0840 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...PARTS OF SRN MS AND SWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051440Z - 051545Z

A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS

TEXAS...A STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD HAS BECOME FOCUSED

ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...MAXIMIZED ALONG A BROAD

COASTAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. COUPLED WITH A

MODEST INFLOW OF MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO /CHARACTERIZED BY

UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5

INCHES/...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AND AN EXPAND

CLUSTER OF STORMS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE APPEARS TO BE IN EXCESS OF

1000 J/KG...AND...IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP LAYER

MEAN FLOW /30-40 KT/ AND SHEAR...THIS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO

SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL

HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR STRONG... POTENTIALLY DAMAGING

WIND GUSTS MAY TRANSITION FROM A LOCALIZED TO BROADER SCALE AS

ACTIVITY APPROACHES LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE NEW ORLEANS

METROPOLITAN AREA BY 17-19Z. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT

PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH...GIVEN HIGH

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/HUMIDITIES...TO PROMOTE THE RISK FOR AN

ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

..KERR.. 03/05/2011

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

840 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES...MERMENTAU...IOTA...CROWLEY...

NORTHEASTERN CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES KLONDIKE...

SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES...LAKE ARTHUR...JENNINGS...

NORTHWESTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES GUEYDAN...

* UNTIL 930 AM CST

* AT 839 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR

THORNWELL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

RICEVILLE...EVANGELINE...MORSE...EGAN...MOWATA...MAXIE AND LYONS

POINT

post-277-0-50716800-1299336729.png

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

855 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA

LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL

400 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS SCENTRAL LA AHEAD

OF TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS TX. AIR MASS EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA

IS MOIST AND MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG. SHEAR

PROFILES WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND

CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS EVIDENT BY THE

STORMS E OF LCH CURRENTLY. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED

WITH ANY SUPERCELL WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSCALE INTO A QLCS BY

THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD SERN MS/SWRN AL.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

952 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES...OPELOUSAS...LEONVILLE...ARNAUDVILLE...

NORTHERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES...SCOTT...LAFAYETTE...CARENCRO...

NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES BREAUX BRIDGE...

ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES...RAYNE...CROWLEY...CHURCH POINT...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CST

* AT 948 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CROWLEY...

MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

RICHARD...BRANCH...DUSON...MIRE...CANKTON...LAWTELL...WASHINGTON...

SUNSET...GRAND COTEAU AND CECILIA

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cell ahead of the main cluster

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

1004 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CST

* AT 1001 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES

NORTHEAST OF WIGGINS...OR 9 MILES WEST OF AVENT STATION...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

AVENT STATION AROUND 1025 AM CST...

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1009 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA/MS/AL AND THE

FL PNHDL...

AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS...A STRONG UPWARD

VERTICAL MOTION FIELD HAS BECOME FOCUSED

ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...MAXIMIZED ALONG A BROAD

COASTAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. COUPLED WITH AN

INCREASING INFLOW OF MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO /CHARACTERIZED

BY UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF

1.5 INCHES/...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AND AN

EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE APPEARS TO BE IN

EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND...IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE

DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW /30-40 KT/ AND SHEAR...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO

SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS THE STORMS DEVELOP EWD

ALONG AND INLAND OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT SHEAR IS

STRONG ENOUGH...GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/HUMIDITIES...TO

PROMOTE THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE INLAND AND

SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES EWD ACROSS SERN MS/SWRN AL INTO WRN FL

PANHANDLE...STORMS WILL DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO A MORE LINEAR MCS

DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR

ISOLATED TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT AS THE

LINEAR MODE EVOLVES.

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030511radar2.png

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

1030 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1000 AM TSTM WND DMG RAYNE 30.24N 92.27W

03/05/2011 ACADIA LA TRAINED SPOTTER

BUILDING DAMGE REPORTED BY LAFAYETTE SKYWARN SPOTTER

NETWORK IN RAYNE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

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035

NWUS54 KLCH 051748

LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

1148 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

1000 AM TSTM WND DMG RAYNE 30.24N 92.27W

03/05/2011 ACADIA LA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 9 INJ *** KATC REPORTS 9 INJURIES INCLUDING 1 SERIOUS

INJURY STEMMING FROM THE POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR

RAYNE. THOSE INJURED ARE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE RAYNE

CIVIC CENTER AND FIRE STATION FOR TREATMENT.

DJONES

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*** 9 INJ *** KATC REPORTS 9 INJURIES INCLUDING 1 SERIOUS

INJURY STEMMING FROM THE POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR

RAYNE. THOSE INJURED ARE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE RAYNE

CIVIC CENTER AND FIRE STATION FOR TREATMENT.

DJONES

I drew on the city limits

post-277-0-68200100-1299348128.png

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looks like there is two areas to watch right now.

1. the storms/line west of New Orleans in the better instability which have tornado warnings right now that will continue to move eastward.

2. more semi-discrete cells in southeast MS in an area of high low-level shear of 0-1km SRH >300 but lesser instability.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1222 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN ASSUMPTION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

NORTHWESTERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THIBODAUX...

SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

NORTH CENTRAL TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1218 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF LABADIEVILLE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MORGAN CITY...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

SCHRIEVER AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LABADIEVILLE BY 1230 PM CST...

THIBODAUX BY 1235 PM CST...

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Tornado confirmed in Crowley just west of Rayne

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

1244 PM CST SAT MAR 05 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0944 AM TORNADO 2 NNW CROWLEY 30.24N 92.39W

03/05/2011 ACADIA LA NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 3 INJ *** NWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMS AN EF 0 TORNADO

TOUCHDOWN. THE TORNADO WAS 25 YARDS WIDE AND PRODUCED A

DAMAGE PATH TWO MILES LONG. 3 INJURIES WERE CONFIRMED IN

ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TORNADO. DAMAGE INCLUDES DEBRIS

DROPPED ON I-10, DAMAGE TO WINDOWS AND SIGN OF A WAFFLE

HOUSE, THE COLLAPSE OF A CAR WASH BUILDING AND MINOR

DAMAGE TO RESIDENTIAL ROOVES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1247 PM CST SAT MAR 05 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1230 PM TORNADO 4 SE BATON ROUGE 30.41N 91.08W

03/05/2011 EAST BATON ROUGE LA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO SOUTH OF ANTIOCH AND TIGER BEND

ROADS IN SHENANDOAH SUBDIVISION NEAR EAST BATON ROUGE

PARISH AND ASCENSION PARISH LINE.

And then...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1249 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THIBODAUX...

NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAHNVILLE...

SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

SOUTHERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAPLACE...

* UNTIL 115 PM CST

* AT 1245 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO

NEAR SHRIEVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS TORNADO WAS

LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF THIBODAUX.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

EDGARD BY 100 PM CST...

NORCO...HAHNVILLE...NEW SARPY AND LAPLACE BY 105 PM CST...

DESTREHAN BY 110 PM CST...

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