on_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 >> Live stream from STL << Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 37 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 455 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 455 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'm a little surprised at the tornado watch if only because the most recent SPC outlook doesn't even have a 2% in some of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'm a little surprised at the tornado watch if only because the most recent SPC outlook doesn't even have a 2% in some of that area. I see in the LSR's that there were reports of a low rotating wall cloud in the affected area for a time and SPC thinks the LLJ will increase this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 New svr t storm watch replaces former tornado watch and extends from sw Illinois to nw Arkansas until 2 am. Seems more logical given the current parameters. Still expecting this coming Tuesday to be a rather significant svr wx day particularly if this first system does not completely scour out the gulf and it has time to send back some quality moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just pushed out new smartmodel output, showing an area of marginal instability SW Arkansas through S. Arkansas. Thinking we will still continue to see strong thunderstorm development, with maybe some Isolated Severe within that area. Possible wind of 45kts and .75" hail within the storms. Most will just be strong thunderstorms, remaining below severe intensity. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just pushed out new smartmodel output, showing an area of marginal instability SW Arkansas through S. Arkansas. Thinking we will still continue to see strong thunderstorm development, with maybe some Isolated Severe within that area. Possible wind of 45kts and .75" hail within the storms. Most will just be strong thunderstorms, remaining below severe intensity. Thoughts? I'm going to be very honest. In order for your smartmodel to be taken seriously, you are going to have to inform us on how it works. I'm fairly certain none of us have ever heard about a smartmodel, and I know to some of us, it appears as though you are simply plotting areas using Paint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm going to be very honest. In order for your smartmodel to be taken seriously, you are going to have to inform us on how it works. I'm fairly certain none of us have ever heard about a smartmodel, and I know to some of us, it appears as though you are simply plotting areas using Paint. Lmao I was waiting haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm going to be very honest. In order for your smartmodel to be taken seriously, you are going to have to inform us on how it works. I'm fairly certain none of us have ever heard about a smartmodel, and I know to some of us, it appears as though you are simply plotting areas using Paint. Yeah it would be nice to know because with reasoning it could be another good tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Nothing exciting here just some thunder and ALOT of rain heading our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Rough day for Mardi Gras festivities in New Orleans... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...PARTS OF SRN MS AND SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 051440Z - 051545Z A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS...A STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD HAS BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...MAXIMIZED ALONG A BROAD COASTAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. COUPLED WITH A MODEST INFLOW OF MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES/...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AND AN EXPAND CLUSTER OF STORMS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE APPEARS TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND...IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW /30-40 KT/ AND SHEAR...THIS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR STRONG... POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY TRANSITION FROM A LOCALIZED TO BROADER SCALE AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA BY 17-19Z. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH...GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/HUMIDITIES...TO PROMOTE THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ..KERR.. 03/05/2011 ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 840 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES...MERMENTAU...IOTA...CROWLEY... NORTHEASTERN CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES KLONDIKE... SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES...LAKE ARTHUR...JENNINGS... NORTHWESTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES GUEYDAN... * UNTIL 930 AM CST * AT 839 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR THORNWELL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RICEVILLE...EVANGELINE...MORSE...EGAN...MOWATA...MAXIE AND LYONS POINT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Good Lord... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 855 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL 400 PM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS SCENTRAL LA AHEAD OF TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS TX. AIR MASS EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IS MOIST AND MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS EVIDENT BY THE STORMS E OF LCH CURRENTLY. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSCALE INTO A QLCS BY THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD SERN MS/SWRN AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 952 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES...OPELOUSAS...LEONVILLE...ARNAUDVILLE... NORTHERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES...SCOTT...LAFAYETTE...CARENCRO... NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES BREAUX BRIDGE... ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES...RAYNE...CROWLEY...CHURCH POINT... * UNTIL 1030 AM CST * AT 948 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CROWLEY... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RICHARD...BRANCH...DUSON...MIRE...CANKTON...LAWTELL...WASHINGTON... SUNSET...GRAND COTEAU AND CECILIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 cell ahead of the main cluster BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1004 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 1045 AM CST * AT 1001 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF WIGGINS...OR 9 MILES WEST OF AVENT STATION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... AVENT STATION AROUND 1025 AM CST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA/MS/AL AND THE FL PNHDL... AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS...A STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD HAS BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...MAXIMIZED ALONG A BROAD COASTAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING INFLOW OF MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES/...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AND AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE APPEARS TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND...IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW /30-40 KT/ AND SHEAR...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS THE STORMS DEVELOP EWD ALONG AND INLAND OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH...GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/HUMIDITIES...TO PROMOTE THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. MODELS ALL SUGGEST AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE INLAND AND SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES EWD ACROSS SERN MS/SWRN AL INTO WRN FL PANHANDLE...STORMS WILL DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO A MORE LINEAR MCS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT AS THE LINEAR MODE EVOLVES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1030 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1000 AM TSTM WND DMG RAYNE 30.24N 92.27W 03/05/2011 ACADIA LA TRAINED SPOTTER BUILDING DAMGE REPORTED BY LAFAYETTE SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK IN RAYNE. POSSIBLE TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 035 NWUS54 KLCH 051748 LSRLCH PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1148 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1000 AM TSTM WND DMG RAYNE 30.24N 92.27W 03/05/2011 ACADIA LA BROADCAST MEDIA *** 9 INJ *** KATC REPORTS 9 INJURIES INCLUDING 1 SERIOUS INJURY STEMMING FROM THE POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR RAYNE. THOSE INJURED ARE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE RAYNE CIVIC CENTER AND FIRE STATION FOR TREATMENT. DJONES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 *** 9 INJ *** KATC REPORTS 9 INJURIES INCLUDING 1 SERIOUS INJURY STEMMING FROM THE POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR RAYNE. THOSE INJURED ARE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE RAYNE CIVIC CENTER AND FIRE STATION FOR TREATMENT. DJONES I drew on the city limits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 looks like there is two areas to watch right now. 1. the storms/line west of New Orleans in the better instability which have tornado warnings right now that will continue to move eastward. 2. more semi-discrete cells in southeast MS in an area of high low-level shear of 0-1km SRH >300 but lesser instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Report of at least one home ripped off its foundation. http://www.katc.com/news/update-on-possible-tornadoes-in-acadia/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1222 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ASSUMPTION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... NORTHWESTERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THIBODAUX... SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... NORTH CENTRAL TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 1245 PM CST * AT 1218 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LABADIEVILLE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MORGAN CITY... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SCHRIEVER AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LABADIEVILLE BY 1230 PM CST... THIBODAUX BY 1235 PM CST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 radar presentation of the Baton Rouge tor warned storm reminds me of the Elkhart, IL storm/tornado on 8/19/09, not that tigh of rotation right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 That area just SW of the current warning will have to be watched. EDIT: They just warned on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 One critical injury per Acadia Parish sheriff's office on TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Tornado confirmed in Crowley just west of Rayne PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1244 PM CST SAT MAR 05 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0944 AM TORNADO 2 NNW CROWLEY 30.24N 92.39W 03/05/2011 ACADIA LA NWS STORM SURVEY *** 3 INJ *** NWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMS AN EF 0 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. THE TORNADO WAS 25 YARDS WIDE AND PRODUCED A DAMAGE PATH TWO MILES LONG. 3 INJURIES WERE CONFIRMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TORNADO. DAMAGE INCLUDES DEBRIS DROPPED ON I-10, DAMAGE TO WINDOWS AND SIGN OF A WAFFLE HOUSE, THE COLLAPSE OF A CAR WASH BUILDING AND MINOR DAMAGE TO RESIDENTIAL ROOVES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1247 PM CST SAT MAR 05 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1230 PM TORNADO 4 SE BATON ROUGE 30.41N 91.08W 03/05/2011 EAST BATON ROUGE LA TRAINED SPOTTER RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO SOUTH OF ANTIOCH AND TIGER BEND ROADS IN SHENANDOAH SUBDIVISION NEAR EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH AND ASCENSION PARISH LINE. And then... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1249 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THIBODAUX... NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAHNVILLE... SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAPLACE... * UNTIL 115 PM CST * AT 1245 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR SHRIEVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF THIBODAUX. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... EDGARD BY 100 PM CST... NORCO...HAHNVILLE...NEW SARPY AND LAPLACE BY 105 PM CST... DESTREHAN BY 110 PM CST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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