Ed Lizard Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Meh. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Just me, if there is actually a 996 low in Kansas Tuesday, there ought to be some severe weather maybe into Oklahoma and Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Verbatim at 0Z the action is shifting further East than optimum U-Tube chase territory, but close enough for now... Oh, and just on 850 mb temps, maybe, just maybe, not a cap of forged steel for East Texas. 700 mb RH Not exactly happy locally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Just having a quick look at all the factors, I'd be a little surprised if there wasn't some severe weather about to be honest tomorrow eveing and into Saturday but we will have to wait and see as ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 There should be some severe weather tomorrow into Saturday. I begin my trek to Seattle to head to Alaska Monday, but I'm watching the Tuesday system more so then this weekend as I think there is a much higher potential if moisture return is sufficient. Wichita is already talking it up considering the forecast range....might have to divert south for a day........ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 611 PM CST THU MAR 3 2011 MON-NEXT FRI: PERIOD(S) DRAWING GREATEST ATTENTION ARE TUE & TUE NGT. A VERY INTENSE ALEUTIAN LOW GYRATING OVER THIS REGION WILL EJECT AN INTENSIFYING MID TO UPR WAVE SE THAT SHOULD REACH THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY TUE MORNING BY WHICH TIME THE FEATURE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS. BY TUE MORNING THE SFC-850MB CYCLONE WILL GET WOUND UP LIKE AN ALARM CLOCK AS IT MOVES E ACROSS KS. THIS WILL INDUCE STRONG WARM/MOIST SFC-850MB ADVECTION THAT WILL SURGE N FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO ERN KS. THE EXTREMELY DYNAMIC SYSTEM STRONG...DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT`LL PROMOTE SUPERCELLULAR TSRA OVER MOST OF CNTRL & ERN KS TUE AFTERNOON & EVENING FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN EWD SURGING SFC-850MB DRY LINE THAT SHOULD REACH KS TURNPIKE EARLY TUE EVENING. HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO ASSIGN ~50% TO ALL AREAS GENERALLY ALONG & E OF TURNPIKE TUE & SE KS TUE NGT. THESE PERIODS WILL REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AFTER THE CYCLONE VENTURES E/NE ACROSS NRN MO DRASTIC CHANGES WILL OCCUR AS BRISK NW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH SEND TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE MID 20S WED MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NGT AS THE MUCH COLDER AIR INVADES THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SE ACROSS KS TONIGHT & SHOULD EXIT SE KS FRI AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE N-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ~20MPH WITH SHRA & EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA OCCURRING OVER SE KS. A DRY WEEKEND AWAITS THE AREA...HOWEVER STRONG-SEVERE TSRA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE TUE & TUE NGT AS A VERY INTENSE CYCLONE MOVES E ACROSS KS. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Tuesday looks like a significant early season plains event if we can get the moisture there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Tuesday looks like a significant early season plains event if we can get the moisture there. I completely agree....Kansas could be the "sweet spot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Meh. http://www.spc.noaa....k/day2otlk.html I wouldn't wish that chase land on most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I completely agree....Kansas could be the "sweet spot". Tuesday is the Kansas tornado drill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 March 8 looks to be the primary threat during the window mentioned in the thread title. The new 04/00z GFS is a bit more optimistic on moisture return than today's 12z GFS and ECMWF, bringing the 60 F isodrosotherm up to near the OK/KS border: The CAPE output is somewhat meager, but this is largely due to unrealistically cool surface temperatures, just as was the case with last weekend's event. Right now I think it will be tough for quality moisture to return in time for a significant tornado event, but a significant severe event with a few tornadoes appears quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'm actually somewhat concerned with the system next week. Hodos are long and looping. Could see a few severe storms here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 We also have a very strong mid-level jet to work with between 70-90kts and a 50kt southerly LLJ, if we can somehow get better moisture, this would certainly be a more interesting setup than it looks now. There also looks to be a shot at a cold core play with the GFS showing a small pocket of instability directly under the ULL with H5 temps between -20 and -24 C. a zoomed in map of the dew points off the 0z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just pushed out 05Z SmartModel update, refreshed the severe weather graphic, mainly focused on the 5th right now. Still seeing slight potential for severe weather from Eastern Oklahoma through West to Central Arkansas, it has been zeroing in on this area the last 2 runs, so could see some potential there. Any new thoughts. Detailed city data has also been uploaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Looks like rain has reduced surface temps by 0Z in SE Kansas, but look at the wind fields... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Next Tuesday into Wednesday will be a bigger event, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIU Jeff Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 We also have a very strong mid-level jet to work with between 70-90kts and a 50kt southerly LLJ, if we can somehow get better moisture, this would certainly be a more interesting setup than it looks now. There also looks to be a shot at a cold core play with the GFS showing a small pocket of instability directly under the ULL with H5 temps between -20 and -24 C. a zoomed in map of the dew points off the 0z GFS run With that picture, its not very impressive. Like you mentioned, the moisture is definitely suspect. The area which I would concentrate on for any type of severe wx just doesn't have impressive Td's. I would venture to say that if the system panned out like this GFS run indicates, that the severe wx threat would be further east, somewhere around AR, MO, etc. I also would like to see better convergence/wind shear; but hey, its early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 With that picture, its not very impressive. Like you mentioned, the moisture is definitely suspect. The area which I would concentrate on for any type of severe wx just doesn't have impressive Td's. I would venture to say that if the system panned out like this GFS run indicates, that the severe wx threat would be further east, somewhere around AR, MO, etc. I also would like to see better convergence/wind shear; but hey, its early in the season. Actually, the 12z GFS slowed the system down even more, moving the instability axis (if you can even call it that) into W OK and NW TX. Every ingredient except for quality low-level moisture is forecast to be in place for a significant severe weather outbreak, and arguably a significant tornado outbreak. Pretty typical for March, I suppose. 04/12z GFS sounding for KLAW at H+108 If we can somehow get solid 60-62 F Td's up to this area by Tuesday evening, this would be a significant threat. That seems rather unlikely at this time, though. EDIT: I should mention that the 2m temps still look completely unreasonable ahead of the dryline. The GFS and NAM forecasts from even 1-2 days out for this past weekend's severe weather event were easily 6-10 F too cool. If you account for this, instability might be sufficient for significant severe even with the progged Td's; but, of course, LCL heights would still temper the tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Looks like some elevated hailers are now developing this Friday afternoon around the Kansas City area. SPC is monitoring for a possible watch southward near the Springfield area later this afternoon as surface based storms initiate. SPC meso page now has 1000 surface based CAPE in the Ozarks along I-44 from Springfield up to St. Louis as of 2 p.m. CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Looks like rain has reduced surface temps by 0Z in SE Kansas, but look at the wind fields... Slower and capped near peak heating. Looks more Dixie Alley, at least this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 334 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... CENTRAL CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 415 PM CST * AT 333 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF ASHLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FULTON...MONTGOMERY CITY...WILLIAMSBURG...SHAMROCK...MINEOLA...NEW FLORENCE...BUELL...BELLFLOWER...CARRINGTON...KINGDOM CITY... DANVILLE AND HIGH HILL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... CENTRAL CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 415 PM CST * AT 333 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF ASHLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FULTON...MONTGOMERY CITY...WILLIAMSBURG...SHAMROCK...MINEOLA...NEW FLORENCE...BUELL...BELLFLOWER...CARRINGTON...KINGDOM CITY... DANVILLE AND HIGH HILL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 349 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... WESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... SOUTHERN RALLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 445 PM CST * AT 346 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MEXICO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SANTA FE...VANDALIA...BOWLING GREEN...LADDONIA...FARBER...PERRY... SPENCERBURG...CURRYVILLE...FRANKFORD...BENTON CITY...RUSH HILL... ASHLEY...ST. CLEMENT AND CYRENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Radar scan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI This warning popped up a mile east of my house. Hefty straight line winds, 50+ mph no tornado. Sirens went off 10 minutes after the storm had passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 That cell in Audrain County has a surprisingly convincing signature...I wonder if there is some sort of boundary in that area...or looking on radar...perhaps a gravity wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Nice bow structure with comma head. Southern end looks to strike NW STL metro in a hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Nice bow structure with comma head. Southern end looks to strike NW STL metro in a hour or so SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 419 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN AUDRAIN...EASTERN CALLAWAY AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND WESTERN LINCOLN...MONTGOMERY...WARREN...GASCONADE AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 445 PM CST... AT 415 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARTINSBURG TO MONTGOMERY CITY TO MINEOLA TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HERMANN TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT STERLING...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...AT 400 PM 78 MPH WIND WAS REPORTED JUST EAST OF PORTLAND MISSOURI WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HERMANN...WARRENTON...NEW HAVEN...BIG SPRING...NEW FLORENCE... BUELL...BELLFLOWER...JONESBURG...NEW HARTFORD...HAWK POINT... TRUESDALE...TRELOAR...MCKITTRICK...HIGH HILL...MIDDLETOWN...BAY... SWISS...BERGER...TRUXTON AND OLNEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Ruh-roh raggy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Right on top of Johnsburg mid and upper level rotation is really good. Low level coming together Jonesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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