TheWeatherPimp Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Looks like another heavy rain and flooding potential this coming weekend. Schools are closed around here due to the flooding. Here are a few of the pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Have lived here in Muncie for 30 year and have NEVER seen the flooding that is now present, and what is unique is that it is lowland non-creek/river flooding. The combination of 6-7" of snow on Friday, followed by the 4" of rain and frozen ground below the sub-surface has created a mess. My children's schools are on delay, with closing a real possibility, again, tomorrow. It is a very dynamic time, for certain. The 4 tornados, doppler indicated, last night are also a first - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Picture from downtown Portland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Have lived here in Muncie for 30 year and have NEVER seen the flooding that is now present, and what is unique is that it is lowland non-creek/river flooding. The combination of 6-7" of snow on Friday, followed by the 4" of rain and frozen ground below the sub-surface has created a mess. My children's schools are on delay, with closing a real possibility, again, tomorrow. It is a very dynamic time, for certain. The 4 tornados, doppler indicated, last night are also a first - I have only lived here since 2003, but same here. I have never seen this caliber of neighborhood flooding over here to your west! I moved here Labor Day 2003, to attend college. I skipped my first day of classes because I had spent the prior 14 hours sandbagging on the Anderson levy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 0z GFS total QPF with the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Forecast crest for the Wabash River at Lafayette raised to 17.8 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Forecast crest for the Wabash River at Lafayette raised to 17.8 feet. I hate drought and don't want one, but c'mon, can't we have a "normal" precipitation pattern for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I hate drought and don't want one, but c'mon, can't we have a "normal" precipitation pattern for once. This is a pretty classic Nina pattern now. It could and probably will get worse before it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 This is a pretty classic Nina pattern now. It could and probably will get worse before it gets better. Thanks for the encouragement...even though I know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Thanks for the encouragement...even though I know better. The GGEM clobbers us with the next event...looks like about 3" of qpf on there. Edit: make that well over 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 The GGEM clobbers us with the next event...looks like about 3" of qpf on there. I added up 3"+ for here off the color maps. Hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I added up 3"+ for here off the color maps. Hope it's wrong. Yeah I just edited my post. I had only started counting at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 That GGEM would be serious trouble. You put that much precip over that large of an area with the ground still frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 That GGEM would be serious trouble. You put that much precip over that large of an area with the ground still frozen... And with ongoing flooding issues present in some places right now. Not good...not good at all. Although I would think the GGEM is an "extreme QPF event" outlier at this point. But even 1-2" over a wide area will cause/intensify the flooding situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 And with ongoing flooding issues present in some places right now. Not good...not good at all. Although I would think the GGEM is an "extreme QPF event" outlier at this point. But even 1-2" over a wide area will cause/intensify the flooding situation. It's on the high side for sure but the Euro isn't that far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 It's on the high side for sure but the Euro isn't that far behind. Well it's a pretty well advertised high QPF event, but I like to take out the extremes in either direction at this point...which pretty much leads to a Euro-type solution. Eh, we'll see. This is a pretty complex system, still lots to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 A snippet from the IND Disco... HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT/S SYSTEM...THIS ONE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND TEMPS COULD FALL AS WARM FRONT RETREATS SOUTH BRIEFLY DURING THE BEST FORCING. SO...INSTABILITY COULD BE LACKING.... QPF VALUES DO NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWAT VALUES ARE UNDER AN INCH...BUT SOIL WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO RECOVER FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. SO...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 A snippet from the IND Disco... HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT/S SYSTEM...THIS ONE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND TEMPS COULD FALL AS WARM FRONT RETREATS SOUTH BRIEFLY DURING THE BEST FORCING. SO...INSTABILITY COULD BE LACKING.... QPF VALUES DO NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWAT VALUES ARE UNDER AN INCH...BUT SOIL WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO RECOVER FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. SO...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. That looks like a recycled long term disco. Clearly the latest runs support a wet solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 wow...12z canadian really deluges ohio friday thru sunday. In fact it really slows the front and allows the cold air to catch up with the moisture around 132hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Some of the 12z runs would present the interesting scenario of potential evacuations being necessitated in some areas but complicated by the possibility of getting snowed in by a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Some of the 12z runs would present the interesting scenario of potential evacuations being necessitated in some areas but complicated by the possibility of getting snowed in by a major snowstorm. I haven't had a chance to read up on the other threads and model runs, have been over at my mom's trying to assist on her flooding, almost into the house....what is the sense, or you impression, as I respect your "read", on the 4th-6th, is rain and then monster snow > 50% likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I haven't had a chance to read up on the other threads and model runs, have been over at my mom's trying to assist on her flooding, almost into the house....what is the sense, or you impression, as I respect your "read", on the 4th-6th, is rain and then monster snow > 50% likely? A big precip event looks increasingly likely but the question is what form it takes. What is being depicted on the Euro and one or two other runs is a pretty rare event but that doesn't mean it can't happen. The rain part is more certain but a significant snow can't be dismissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 A big precip event looks increasingly likely but the question is what form it takes. What is being depicted on the Euro and one or two other runs is a pretty rare event but that doesn't mean it can't happen. The rain part is more certain but a significant snow can't be dismissed. Thank you, appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Here is the scene from today looking north from downtown. This flood is Findlay's third flood in the last four years. Looking at the QPF forecast for the rest of the week, and it is just crazy the amount of rain forecasted for here (nearly 3 inches). This is starting to concern me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Here is the scene from today looking north from downtown. This flood is Findlay's third flood in the last four years. Looking at the QPF forecast for the rest of the week, and it is just crazy the amount of rain forecasted for here (nearly 3 inches). This is starting to concern me. Better start filling sandbags now... if the models are right, I'd imagine this could be a record flood for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I see CLE is already highlighting the potential for flooding in the HWO. Hopefully, they get flood watches posted early for this event so there's a good lead time for people to take action. Of course, it would probably be confusing to issue flood watches too early since essentially the whole area is under flood warnings already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Portland, Indiana is an absolute mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Do hydrologists have a method of determining snow melt rate? I know the snow is gone for alot of us, but I've never heard anything on those lines, just curious. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z NAM & GFS both indicate an ominous flooding situation for Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 12z NAM & GFS both indicate an ominous flooding situation for Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio! Add the GGEM to that list. From C. IN to C. OH looks to be in the bullseye for more heavy rain. From the 12z the heaviest looks to fall around Richmond to Dayton. Still a few days out but I dont think we will see much in the way of last minute trending. If we do it'll probably be a bit NW of what the models show now which would put the LAF guys under the heaviest rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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