CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 no doubt....I just don't think the pattern as forecasted by the ensembles and the indices looks all the horrible for snow chances. I don't think it does either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Things like probability, and terms like once every 100yrs, get people confused I think. For instance some areas had a 100 yr flood in both 2006 and 2007, but they may not see it again for another 200yrs. I think you are right in that sample size plays a role. How do we know this is a 1 in 100yr flood??? Even Ginx can't dig up the Dead Sea Scrolls on the events prior to 1000AD. Highly anomalous events are inherently more difficult to properly guage the frequency of because obviouly the less frequently they occur, the less data we have and thus the more inferior the sample size. It's a two-pronged issue because not only is data relatively scarce, but it's quality erodes the further back in time it was gathered. Very short time period of quality data with which to work. Quite the conundrum because those highly anomalous events are the ones that society is most eager to guage, so we are always grasping at "short sample straws, so to speak.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I'd be shocked if we didn't see at least one more plowable event for the majority of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The 12z GFS will be out to hr 84 before the 12z NAM............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The 12z GFS will be out to hr 84 before the 12z NAM............ Who cares when the model comes out; it blows....I'd rather await the completion of the Rev's etch-a sketch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Who cares when the model comes out; it blows....I'd rather await the completion of the Rev's etch-a sketch. LOL I think he sketched out the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Who cares when the model comes out; it blows....I'd rather await the completion of the Rev's etch-a sketch. Sure it blows, For some, Still quite a bit of interest to what happens in the Western Maine mtns here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Sure it blows, For some, Still quite a bit of interest to what happens in the Western Maine mtns here. Amen - Sugarloaf is a second home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Who cares when the model comes out; it blows....I'd rather await the completion of the Rev's etch-a sketch. What??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I don't think the pattern looks that horrible going foward... The PNA is rising...the NAO is falling slightly towards nuetral... and there are a few marginal threats in the extended range. Any thoughts from others on this? I think the next storm is obviously a big rainer for SNE but hope is alive for the storm at Day 6/Day 7. We have a nice high pressure building in with very cold air over Eastern Canada/NNE. That could be a huge threat down to the Mid Atlantic as the 12z GFS shows. I really like how the super clipper brings the arctic air back. People are giving up too early in SNE...I live near NYC and I don't give up till the end of March. We had 20" of snow here in late March 1958 and 12" in late March 2004. Not time for surrender, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I'll be too busy enjoying every last second of Winter fun instead of crying "Winter's over" day after beautiful Winter day. Skiing will continue here at least through the end of April . Just to be sure my Winter continues unabated I'll be leaving for AK in a few weeks. Enjoy your brown grass and the return of biting insects, I'll enjoy more Winter. BTW, if you're going to quote me, at least get it right. Big Winter Incoming. Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Love your passion for winter...you know I love snow too. But its been a rough week for SNE. 3" of rain in your backyard too. Alaska is not here...winter continues into Alaska much later. But not here, and none of us could give two flips about how snowy it is in Alaska (except you since you might travel there)....give me some snow here or give me death of winter. I want to see one more huge storm. Maybe we have an elevation event left in us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 anyone know why Allan's model page is not linked anymore near the top of the forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 anyone know why Allan's model page is not linked anymore near the top of the forum? Replaced by the ads? I like the new ads...should help pay for the site. -- Some decent chances from 3/15 to about 3/24ish....that'll be the last best shot for many of us in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Sure it blows, For some, Still quite a bit of interest to what happens in the Western Maine mtns here. Not what I meant......the model just never verifies, is what I meant by it "blows"...not that it doesn't depict snow for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 What a beautiful send off the shuttle just gave us all, amazing watching the space station and shuttle streak thru the sky at 723 this evening, the end of an era, hope you all got to witness it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Not what I meant......the model just never verifies, is what I meant by it "blows"...not that it doesn't depict snow for sne. Gotcha, And on that yes, It does blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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