Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 lucky here the epic snowpack has melted slowly over the last few weeks, now its all gone, and I was out in the yard, no mud, winds today really dried things out! speak for yourself, my yard is a swamp. (of course I am at the bottom of a hill, so that plays a role...all snow gone from my yard...even the biggest pile that hangs on the longest...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Big Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Obviously many have been beaten into submission by this Winter. Cryin' for Momma. Plenty of Winter left, you just need to get after it. Just another EPIC powder day in a long string of Powder days this season. MRG-Winning!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Changed that a couple years ago! Its going to be so nice on Sunday light out till 730!!!! Cant wait. Yeah, That parts great but waiting on the model runs with the Nam at 9:30, GFS at 11:35 and the Euro at 1:45 am sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Yeah, That parts great but waiting on the model runs with the Nam at 9:30, GFS at 11:35 and the Euro at 1:45 am sucks Thankfully there won;t be any more snow events to track, so we won't have to worry about staying up for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Big Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Obviously many have been beaten into submission by this Winter. Cryin' for Momma. Plenty of Winter left, you just need to get after it. Just another EPIC powder day in a long string of Powder days this season. MRG-Winning!! lol Your snowpack will be crying for mama when another 3" of rain comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Thankfully there won;t be any more snow events to track, so we won't have to worry about staying up for the models. Looks like most of SNE starts as snow, Thursday, however. I take it you're not too impressed with the pattern. I know March can be random, Will, but honestly things aren't looking too good with the Pacific in such a nasty strong Niña state and a huge vortex over the west NAO region. Very big +NAO pattern. Your snowpack will be crying for mama when another 3" of rain comes. 18z GFS shows over 2" rain for NW CT and W MA, ugly cut-off from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Looks like most of SNE starts as snow, Thursday, however. I take it you're not too impressed with the pattern. I know March can be random, Will, but honestly things aren't looking too good with the Pacific in such a nasty strong Niña state and a huge vortex over the west NAO region. Very big +NAO pattern. 18z GFS shows over 2" rain for NW CT and W MA, ugly cut-off from hell. I'm not impressed through about mid month, anything can happen after that, but you are racing against climo by that point. The CP is just about toast by the equinox...my area can maybe hang onto a legit threat of 6"+ for another 2 weeks. Obviously we have some spectacular exceptions like 1997, 1987, 1982 and 1984...but we've certainly seen a dearth of decent post-equinox storms in the past 13 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Looks like most of SNE starts as snow, Thursday, however. I take it you're not too impressed with the pattern. I know March can be random, Will, but honestly things aren't looking too good with the Pacific in such a nasty strong Niña state and a huge vortex over the west NAO region. Very big +NAO pattern. 18z GFS shows over 2" rain for NW CT and W MA, ugly cut-off from hell. It might not mean much, as models have trended much warmer as we closer to the date, but at least there are signs of a -NAO trying to develop. I know it starts to mean less as far as correlations go, but it still can be enough to drive confluence and eventual cold air into the northeast. Models have been trying to develop a trough west of Portugal and ridging into eastern and northern Canada at the end of the 11-15 day. If we can see this persist for another day or two, perhaps there's something to it. Otherwise, we're at the mercy of random bowling balls moving through and amplifying in the flow. At this point, we are later into March so it becomes more difficult as the days go by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Thankfully there won;t be any more snow events to track, so we won't have to worry about staying up for the models. Still some chances next couple of weeks, After that bring on spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 May very well be totally done, but I'm over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 we'll all be here tracking potential snow events until mid-april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 we'll all be here tracking potential snow events until mid-april. Yup, As long as there is still a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 we'll all be here tracking potential snow events until mid-april. A lot of us are here in the summer too. But you can already see a lot of the mid-winter crowd is thinning out. I look for snow events until late April on models, but the realstic period generally ends sometime around April 10-15 here. There is a very sharp cutoff on record daily snowfall after April 13th here. Only a few rogue events produced anything over 4" past that date and its reflected in the daily snowfall records with many of the dates past April 10th having records in the 1-2" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 A lot of us are here in the summer too. But you can already see a lot of the mid-winter crowd is thinning out. I look for snow events until late April on models, but the realstic period generally ends sometime around April 10-15 here. There is a very sharp cutoff on record daily snowfall after April 13th here. Only a few rogue events produced anything over 4" past that date and its reflected in the daily snowfall records with many of the dates past April 10th having records in the 1-2" range. I'm here in the summer for the cane threads, sports forum and just because I enjoy the daily banter amongst friends, but it's defintely not as exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Your snowpack will be crying for mama when another 3" of rain comes. His snowpack may be crying...but I doubt he will. He'll be too busy screaming "Big, big winter incoming. Big winter incoming." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I'm here in the summer for the cane threads, sports forum and just because I enjoy the daily banter amongst friends, but it's defintely not as exciting. From a meteorological perspective all other 3 seasons combined blow chunks compared to winter here. We get pretty good snowstorms in the winter...we get crap for tropical cyclones except once in a blue moon and we generally get garbage for severe wx outside of Litchfield county CT where hardly anyone lives anyway. Spring has nothing remotely exciting unless you love backdoor fronts with 40F and drizzle. 70F and sun is nice for throwing the baseball outside, but meteorologically its about as boring as it gets. I spend most of the summer discussing the Red Sox and looking forward to the next winter. Maybe a rogue weather event (usually a strong thunderstorm) gets mildly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 shift the 0z gfs 50 miles east and we have serious flood issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 From a meteorological perspective all other 3 seasons combined blow chunks compared to winter here. We get pretty good snowstorms in the winter...we get crap for tropical cyclones except once in a blue moon and we generally get garbage for severe wx outside of Litchfield county CT where hardly anyone lives anyway. Spring has nothing remotely exciting unless you love backdoor fronts with 40F and drizzle. 70F and sun is nice for throwing the baseball outside, but meteorologically its about as boring as it gets. I spend most of the summer discussing the Red Sox and looking forward to the next winter. Maybe a rogue weather event (usually a strong thunderstorm) gets mildly interesting. I'm more interested in the tropics than you, but not quite as interested as I used to be.....the good thing about it is that I'm not an "IMBY" tropical weenie.....just a US weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I don't post much if any in the summer as i spend all my time outdoors either at the beach, golf course or fishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I'm here in the summer for the cane threads, sports forum and just because I enjoy the daily banter amongst friends, but it's defintely not as exciting. It's been a long 20 years. Were there any legitimate threats/brushes other than Belle between Donna in 1960 and Gloria in 1985? Gloria is what got me interested in weather when I was 8 and it was a huge disappointment. I only had a trace a rain and although I have never seen any official wind gusts out of Newport I'm not even sure Newport gusted to hurricane force. I was 15 miles too far west to experience the absolute worst of Bob but I gusted to 100-105 for up to 90 minutes and although I barely had an inch of rain it was still a great storm to experience. Has anyone from the SNE crew ever considered heading down south to chase a Gulf or Florida hurricane? Picture it...it's 10pm and a CAT 4 is heading out of the Bahamas headed toward Fort Lauderdale. The SNE weenines are the only non-media people still in the hotel on A1A. Wiz is more concerned about the tornado threat 40 miles west of I95....Messenger's complaining about the models, saying it's heading toward Daytona...Ginx, Jerry, Will, Ray, and Scooter are busy checking out Stephanie Abrams, MRG is ranting and raving about this big winter that's incoming and even Jim Cantore thinks he's nuts...Geraldo's doing everything in his power to make himself the center of attention...and of course..since it's 10pm...even with a CAT 4 barreling toward the wealthiest strip of coastline in America's hurricane zone....RevKev heads up to his hotel room and goes to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I'm not impressed through about mid month, anything can happen after that, but you are racing against climo by that point. The CP is just about toast by the equinox...my area can maybe hang onto a legit threat of 6"+ for another 2 weeks. Obviously we have some spectacular exceptions like 1997, 1987, 1982 and 1984...but we've certainly seen a dearth of decent post-equinox storms in the past 13 years. The equinox is about the cut-off for meaningful snows down here, as well, except for rogue events like April 1996, April 1997, and April 2003 which were all decent down here (3"+). I remember the 6" of paste we got in the April Fool's Day storm, very fun but total concrete. If it had bombed out a bit earlier, NYC would have gotten the 20"+ amounts that SNE had, as temperatures weren't really a problem once the storm got going. Did you get anything from the twin Nor'easters in late March 2004? I believe those were both around the equinox, each one was a 6" snow event or so for Southern Westchester. Not a bad winter in 03-04 with the blockbuster in December down here and then the active pattern in the 2nd half of March. How did ORH do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The equinox is about the cut-off for meaningful snows down here, as well, except for rogue events like April 1996, April 1997, and April 2003 which were all decent down here (3"+). I remember the 6" of paste we got in the April Fool's Day storm, very fun but total concrete. If it had bombed out a bit earlier, NYC would have gotten the 20"+ amounts that SNE had, as temperatures weren't really a problem once the storm got going. Did you get anything from the twin Nor'easters in late March 2004? I believe those were both around the equinox, each one was a 6" snow event or so for Southern Westchester. Not a bad winter in 03-04 with the blockbuster in December down here and then the active pattern in the 2nd half of March. How did ORH do? The Mar '04 events were kind of a bust here...still decent, but they were supposed to be more. We got about 9-10" total from the two systems and it was cold powdery snow. The 2nd one ended up further SE than it was supposed to and actually got the Cape and ACK much better. The first one was actually a bit SE too...probably why you did so well. We were supposed to get more here but it got compressed a bit. It was the story of that winter....everything was south while we were frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The Mar '04 events were kind of a bust here...still decent, but they were supposed to be more. We got about 9-10" total from the two systems and it was cold powdery snow. The 2nd one ended up further SE than it was supposed to and actually got the Cape and ACK much better. The first one was actually a bit SE too...probably why you did so well. We were supposed to get more here but it got compressed a bit. It was the story of that winter....everything was south while we were frigid. Nantucket picked up a good 7 inches from that second event that occurred on a Friday in mid March of that year while most areas only had 1-4 if they were even that lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The Mar '04 events were kind of a bust here...still decent, but they were supposed to be more. We got about 9-10" total from the two systems and it was cold powdery snow. The 2nd one ended up further SE than it was supposed to and actually got the Cape and ACK much better. The first one was actually a bit SE too...probably why you did so well. We were supposed to get more here but it got compressed a bit. It was the story of that winter....everything was south while we were frigid. Yeah 03-04 was a classic NYC winter...I had about 55" here, a bit less than 02-03 but on par with 04-05. We did really well on the December 2003 storm and then scored like 14" in the 2nd half of March. I remember the snow from one of those Nor'easters was vaporized in a single day; it fell overnight and temperatures rose into the mid 40s with bright March sunshine the day after, destroying the snow except for heavily shaded areas. I went into the city and was amazed to see it gone by the time I returned in the early evening. Those were still great late-season events, however. March 2005 also had a number of smaller events here, that was really the last good March unless you count the one 10" storm on March 2, 2009. March 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2010 were all virtually snowless in Westchester. It seems that December and March have traded places lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Euro still has an interesting event around 144 hours. But I'm still skeptical at the setup. But who knows, maybe it will actually last long enough to follow it. I'm fully expecting it to disappear next run or the one after. I expected it to be gone this run but it wasn't which is the only reason I mention it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 His snowpack may be crying...but I doubt he will. He'll be too busy screaming "Big, big winter incoming. Big winter incoming." I'll be too busy enjoying every last second of Winter fun instead of crying "Winter's over" day after beautiful Winter day. Skiing will continue here at least through the end of April . Just to be sure my Winter continues unabated I'll be leaving for AK in a few weeks. Enjoy your brown grass and the return of biting insects, I'll enjoy more Winter. BTW, if you're going to quote me, at least get it right. Big Winter Incoming. Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Your snowpack will be crying for mama when another 3" of rain comes. Kevin? Is that you? Whatever, snowpack made it through this last assault, it will live through the next one as well. It's been an awesome Winter and it's not over yet despite the calls to the contrary. This is the time of the year that the true snow lovers carry the torch. All the pretenders start playing frisbee and talking baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I'll be too busy enjoying every last second of Winter fun instead of crying "Winter's over" day after beautiful Winter day. Skiing will continue here at least through the end of April . Just to be sure my Winter continues unabated I'll be leaving for AK in a few weeks. Enjoy your brown grass and the return of biting insects, I'll enjoy more Winter. BTW, if you're going to quote me, at least get it right. Big Winter Incoming. Big Big Winter. Love your passion for winter...you know I love snow too. But its been a rough week for SNE. 3" of rain in your backyard too. Alaska is not here...winter continues into Alaska much later. But not here, and none of us could give two flips about how snowy it is in Alaska (except you since you might travel there)....give me some snow here or give me death of winter. I want to see one more huge storm. Maybe we have an elevation event left in us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Love your passion for winter...you know I love snow too. But its been a rough week for SNE. 3" of rain in your backyard too. Alaska is not here...winter continues into Alaska much later. But not here, and none of us could give two flips about how snowy it is in Alaska (except you since you might travel there)....give me some snow here or give me death of winter. I want to see one more huge storm. Maybe we have an elevation event left in us. No doubt a tough week. Had to console my daughter about the roof collapse of our snow fort.lol I've been around long enough to not give up this early. Lots can still happen. Had an awesome day yesterday at MRG, still have snow in my ears, which is a stroke of good luck as it keeps me from hearing all the "winter's over" calls. Fortunately, while taking a hit, the snowpack here endures. BTW, hasn't been a snowy Winter in AK by their standards, hoping they get into the storm cycle by month's end. Cold high pressure has been the rule most of the Winter there. I jut find it funny how people can sit a a computer day after day saying Winter is done while there are so many Winter sports still going strong. You see what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 No doubt a tough week. Had to console my daughter about the roof collapse of our snow fort.lol I've been around long enough to not give up this early. Lots can still happen. Had an awesome day yesterday at MRG, still have snow in my ears, which is a stroke of good luck as it keeps me from hearing all the "winter's over" calls. Fortunately, while taking a hit, the snowpack here endures. BTW, hasn't been a snowy Winter in AK by their standards, hoping they get into the storm cycle by month's end. Cold high pressure has been the rule most of the Winter there. I jut find it funny how people can sit a a computer day after day saying Winter is done while there are so many Winter sports still going strong. You see what you want to see. We are obscenely overdue for a big late March or early April event...hopefully this year breaks that streak. We said March has been a dud for years, but its continuing this year...so this is a great example of showing that just because we are "due", it doesn't mean jack. March is due, but the weather doesn't give a flip....it will give us another 10 terrible Marches in a row if it wants to. Mother nature can be cruel like that. But hopefully climo can try to even it out with a monster this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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