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MARCH


Mr Torchey

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For BOS..or all?

For many people say CT river on east to you and ORH or so. It's a narrow area between rain and snow. I just think this setup would imply rain and then maybe brief ZR but probably a wider area of IP, and then snow. It's not worth fussing over at this stage, but a wintry end to the storm is in the cards for some, esp NNE.

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For many people say CT river on east to you and ORH or so. It's a narrow area between rain and snow. I just think this setup would imply rain and then maybe brief ZR but probably a wider area of IP, and then snow. It's not worth fussing over at this stage, but a wintry end to the storm is in the cards for some, esp NNE.

So we go from 45 and rain to 30 and sleet in a few hrs?

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I don't ever remember making an argument against the NAO because of wavelengths...I always said having a -NAO was key for KU events and increased our chances for above average snowfall, but just that the Pacific was important early in the season as a cold air source and to allow energy to dig to our latitude. The -NAO can't provide cold air for a November snowstorm as the -EPO can.

I think there is an issue of cold air source that needs to be discussed: early in the winter, Northwest Canada and the Prairies are the best cold air source, especially since Hudson Bay isn't frozen yet. Later in the season, it's easier for the Western Arctic/Western Canada to warm up, so the eastern areas like Hudson Bay and Greenland become more important, and that's why the NAO may be key to late-season snowfalls. It takes much much longer for the areas influenced by the NAO to warm up in springtime so we can sometimes get sneaky cold from the maritime polar regions even as continental arctic air is being eliminated from the map by sun angle.

Would you like me to quote you saying the NAO is less important in December because of the wavelengths?

That's a wonderfully complex theory you have invented, unfortunately it's all irrelevant since the NAO correlates to northeast temps just as well in December as in March, indicating that the NAO is just as an effective cold air source in December as March.

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MOS again overdoing the cold. NAM MOS had a high of 22F at BOS and 18F at ORH. At 2PM - it's 27F at BOS and 23F at ORH.

A bit strange how it's only 1F colder in BOS than in parts of the North Shore of Long Island and coastal southern CT. I'd have thought there would be more latitudinal differences in this type of cold shot.

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MOS again overdoing the cold. NAM MOS had a high of 22F at BOS and 18F at ORH. At 2PM - it's 27F at BOS and 23F at ORH.

A bit strange how it's only 1F colder in BOS than in parts of the North Shore of Long Island.

Evapo cooling from n-nw winds perhaps. P-town is actually colder than BOS.

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Does big icing even occur much in New England in March? Not saying it can't, but have there been big ice events this month?

I though Scott mentioned one day when Boston streets were ice covered, but can't remember if it was March or Feb

2/28/95. I actually had ice on my street in Brockton. We had some light snow on the 27, but the temp warmed up to 34 during the early evening. As the wave of low pressure moved by, winds came back to the north and the temp plummeted to the lower 20s until mid morning in the 28th. It wasn't all that bad, but there were a few limbs down. It's the most ice I ever seen.

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2/28/95. I actually had ice on my street in Brockton. We had some light snow on the 27, but the temp warmed up to 34 during the early evening. As the wave of low pressure moved by, winds came back to the north and the temp plummeted to the lower 20s until mid morning in the 28th. It wasn't all that bad, but there were a few limbs down. It's the most ice I ever seen.

Was it an actual ice storm? Or was it snow melting onto the branches?

What month was the big 1998 NNE/Canadian ice event?

Never mind... January- that pesky internets thingy

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Scott or Will, does that pattern over the east look somewhat similar at 500mb to the dec. 2008 ice storm on the 12z Euro? I only see 24 hour increments...but it doesn't look too dissimilar.

I don't think it's all that different. The disturbance across the deep south was stronger in '08, but the big pieces of the puzzle are all there. I think the difference here (well at least for now) is that the system on Monday is slowly tracking eastward, as the low moves north. Back in '08, the low intensifies and moves right over se mass.

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it's around 28 here...27 at SFZ...BOX had a high of 22 in the forecast this morning. I didn' t look at MOS for the area, though.

it was pretty poor.

Want to see some god awful MOS? look at 12z MAV around the area. terrible!

the 12z mav says it should be 17F at FMH and 9F(!!) at ORH at 18z

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I don't think it's all that different. The disturbance across the deep south was stronger in '08, but the big pieces of the puzzle are all there. I think the difference here (well at least for now) is that the system on Monday is slowly tracking eastward, as the low moves north. Back in '08, the low intensifies and moves right over se mass.

Hmm..yeah good point. The west is definitely different...but the east is similar. Also, I actually think the high pressure poised in this event is even more favorable. That intensifying low could have kept a north isallobaric flow over central Mass I'm guessing?

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it was pretty poor.

Want to see some god awful MOS? look at 12z MAV around the area. terrible!

the 12z mav says it should be 17F at FMH and 9F(!!) at ORH at 18z

lol that is pretty bad...surprising too since climo is worked into the numbers. I've noticed that we tend to have bigger diurnal swings than BOX forecasts, here. It will be warmer in the day, but cooler at night. I'm imagining that GFE is not quite good enough to pinpoint meso/microscale temperature variations in the middle of a small valley.

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Hmm..yeah good point. The west is definitely different...but the east is similar. Also, I actually think the high pressure poised in this event is even more favorable. That intensifying low could have kept a north isallobaric flow over central Mass I'm guessing?

Yeah there was a good high to the north with a pretty darn cold airmass in Maine. The intensifying low kept the flow nne-ne and brought the cold in a perfect trajectory down from Maine, and then turning west towards the ORH hills. The east side of the ORH hills and even Berks got the worst ice because the air upsloped and cooled on those slopes. The other area that got hit hard was the Merrimack Valley and especially srn NH. They were closer to the source region and had 0.5" to 1" ice, but I think the ORH hills got the ice just a bit worse. I know Will could tell you much more, as he witnessed it first hand.

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Yeah there was a good high to the north with a pretty darn cold airmass in Maine. The intensifying low kept the flow nne-ne and brought the cold in a perfect trajectory down from Maine, and then turning west towards the ORH hills. The east side of the ORH hills and even Berks got the worst ice because the air upsloped and cooled on those slopes. The other area that got hit hard was the Merrimack Valley and especially srn NH. They were closer to the source region and had 0.5" to 1" ice, but I think the ORH hills got the ice just a bit worse. I know Will could tell you much more, as he witnessed it first hand.

Cool...Amy mentioned there was decent ice here, but nothing like what we seen in Worcester.

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