skierinvermont Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Obviously raw correlations don't tell the whole story in terms of storm track but there does seem to be a good correlation between the NAO and temps even in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 That was the same argument you made against the NAO in Dec. You're contradicting yourself all over the place.. sometimes better just to admit we don't know all the answers. I agree.. let Will clear it up. FWIW the NAO appears to correlate well to air temperatures even in April. Not quite as well as Jan/Feb but better Dec. So that would tell me that the NAO still does have a big effect even in March and April. I don't ever remember making an argument against the NAO because of wavelengths...I always said having a -NAO was key for KU events and increased our chances for above average snowfall, but just that the Pacific was important early in the season as a cold air source and to allow energy to dig to our latitude. The -NAO can't provide cold air for a November snowstorm as the -EPO can. I think there is an issue of cold air source that needs to be discussed: early in the winter, Northwest Canada and the Prairies are the best cold air source, especially since Hudson Bay isn't frozen yet. Later in the season, it's easier for the Western Arctic/Western Canada to warm up, so the eastern areas like Hudson Bay and Greenland become more important, and that's why the NAO may be key to late-season snowfalls. It takes much much longer for the areas influenced by the NAO to warm up in springtime so we can sometimes get sneaky cold from the maritime polar regions even as continental arctic air is being eliminated from the map by sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The May 25-26, 1967 event was the most prolific event that late in the season for the area. This wasnt the first week of may. It was almost June. That is incredible to me. Didn't the White Mtns get smoked in that event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Obviously raw correlations don't tell the whole story in terms of storm track but there does seem to be a good correlation between the NAO and temps even in April. I ran a correlation maybe 2 years ago on April snow events over 3" and there was almost zero. Not that it means its true, but I think its hard to tell...because a majority of April events occur early on. So any NAO after that wouldn't mean anything. As said previously, and this is only one example...1997 was a huge vortex over S greenland and a big -PNA. Cutoffs are how it happens for the most part late in the year, but obviously there are exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Man it would be nice to get a taste of those late season storms. Nice disco. April '82 or bust. Nothing like a powder bomb in April with 850 temps starting at -10C..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Man it would be nice to get a taste of those late season storms. Nice disco. April '82 or bust. Nothing like a power bomb in April with 850 temps starting at -10C..lol. This has been a great discussion, I know we've tossed some snide remarks around but all in good fun. The April 1982 storm fascinates me, Central Park had 10" of powder with temps in the low-mid 20s. I know we've seen -10C 850s getting into the Deep South in April 2007, but that just seems extreme. I wonder if there's any truth to late season snowstorms being "warning shots" for Super El Niños, thinking of April 1982 and April 1997. The ECM and GFS both show some sort of troughing entering the East around Day 8-10; this may be the chance for our last major snowfall of the season. The teleconnections look more favorable with the Aleutian ridge sliding east into an AK block and a North Atlantic ridge developing. I'm not ready to give up yet as I do think March 10-20 could produce a couple decent snowfalls. Canada has been well below average for a while now, and that air may move south after the stalled front passes early next week, setting up a wintry regime for the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 This has been a great discussion, I know we've tossed some snide remarks around but all in good fun. The April 1982 storm fascinates me, Central Park had 10" of powder with temps in the low-mid 20s. I know we've seen -10C 850s getting into the Deep South in April 2007, but that just seems extreme. I wonder if there's any truth to late season snowstorms being "warning shots" for Super El Niños, thinking of April 1982 and April 1997. The ECM and GFS both show some sort of troughing entering the East around Day 8-10; this may be the chance for our last major snowfall of the season. The teleconnections look more favorable with the Aleutian ridge sliding east into an AK block and a North Atlantic ridge developing. I'm not ready to give up yet as I do think March 10-20 could produce a couple decent snowfalls. Canada has been well below average for a while now, and that air may move south after the stalled front passes early next week, setting up a wintry regime for the East Coast. Yeah it's getting close to that time of year, especially the final half of the month, where timing of these big ole bowling balls moving east will be more crucial than anything. Having Canada cold is important, especially for the airmass just aloft (from 950-850). That's the critical level for us low folk. We want that pretty darn cold. Those temps may support 40-45 or so during the day with sunshine, but will also provide temps near 30-32 in late season snowstorms...when you got precip falling..lift etc. I saw some hints that go along with what you're describing too, but obviously it's too early being March 3rd, to determine anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 We need to take a road trip to Ocean City. I swear I have gotten more girls there than any other location. It is literally like an infestation of incredibly hot, in shape, down to earth girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Man did Messenger derail this thread. The dude needs a break from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Man did Messenger derail this thread. The dude needs a break from here He should get out and interact more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 He should get out and interact more. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 -4/-10, Nothing screams early Spring like below zero cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Fooking freezing out there. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 What a long range disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 What a long range disaster. Scott, have you happened to notice what the outlook in AK is for later this month. Been cold and dry there. Looks like I'll be heading up at the end of the month. Hoping to hit it during a snow cycle. Alyeska is off pace with only 370" so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 What a long range disaster. Should make for some good board hostilities, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Should make for some good board hostilities, though. Just one big happy SNE family eating each other alive.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Scott, have you happened to notice what the outlook in AK is for later this month. Been cold and dry there. Looks like I'll be heading up at the end of the month. Hoping to hit it during a snow cycle. Alyeska is off pace with only 370" so far this season. I haven't noticed, but it looks like there should be a trough in the area so I'm sure they will have some snow. I think January sucked for them which is why they are behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Should make for some good board hostilities, though. Those are always fun. Nothing like a weather board domestic to make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Well it's not entirely bad upon further inspection, but we are getting near the time of year where things can pop out of nowhere..even in a sh*tty pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I haven't noticed, but it looks like there should be a trough in the area so I'm sure they will have some snow. I think January sucked for them which is why they are behind. Oh, they'll have snow.lol It's just a matter of will I get any 40+" new powder days. This was the view 2 days before Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Figured I'd pass this along, as Tim forwarded this to me and his NECN cohorts like Noyes... I should probably PM this to Steve/Ginx cause he loves WINDEX so much... this is Tim Kelley's 20 second clip of the conditions at 3,000ft during the WINDEX event yesterday. Weir Lundstedt enjoying the event he named... oh and by the way, conditions are as harsh as Weir looks uncomfortable. He's standing fully exposed at the top of the chute to brutal NNW winds. We clocked some 50mph gusts at the ski area with this squall line. http://surfskiweathe...index-at-stowe/ Temp this morning is -12F up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 -5 here and the sun just came up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 -6/-11, This is the kind off Spring warmth that really gets the tulips jumping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 -5 here and the sun just came up Nice Shot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Well it's not entirely bad upon further inspection, but we are getting near the time of year where things can pop out of nowhere..even in a sh*tty pattern. Sucks that we lost the snow/ice changeover for Monday.Probably will come back again on tomorrow's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 -5 here and the sun just came up Is this a metaphor for where we are with winter? A cold day in a waning season.....but maybe a few punches left.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Sucks that we lost the snow/ice changeover for Monday.Probably will come back again on tomorrow's runs The GFS ensembles and to some extent the euro ensembles have it, but it's sometimes difficult to do. It probably won't be sorted out for another 2-3 days, but can't say I'm terribly excited right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 LOL, I wonder how a local station's prediction from 2 days ago of 34, is going to work out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 8.3/-3 looks to be the temp outside and it feels very cold but I must be wrong because Messenger said winter's over. Seems a little too cold for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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