nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Dude, give it up...teleconnectors in the 2nd half of March are pretty trivial I'd still bet there's a correlation between March snowfall and the NAO for most places in the East. But as long as it's snowing outside, I'm content with a -PNA/+NAO. Those twin storms in 2004 were awesome, best March here in ages. Day 10 map on the ECM looks sweet. Cut-off snowstorm with -3C 850s then a burst of cold from a northern stream front. Would still be only March 13th so plenty of time for 1-2 more events, even down here, if we get that brutal cold vortex from Central Canada in. Canada is cold...that's a plus. Some people like Earthlight give up early and easy. But then there are diehards like me, or at least those who sex life doesn't depend on whether it's warm enough for the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I'd still bet there's a correlation between March snowfall and the NAO for most places in the East. But as long as it's snowing outside, I'm content with a -PNA/+NAO. Those twin storms in 2004 were awesome, best March here in ages. Day 10 map on the ECM looks sweet. Cut-off snowstorm with -3C 850s then a burst of cold from a northern stream front. Would still be only March 13th so plenty of time for 1-2 more events, even down here, if we get that brutal cold vortex from Central Canada in. Canada is cold...that's a plus. Some people like Earthlight give up early and easy. But then there are diehards like me, or at least those who sex life doesn't depend on whether it's warm enough for the beach. I'm sure that there is, too because climo dictates that most snowfall occurs in the 1st half of the month, when the NAO is still very relevant. We know that you're sex life must be raging, socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I get that he disputes me, but when someone like you tells me that I'm wrong, I usually follow it up with a "my bad" in pretty short order. Tip even posted something to the same effect, today, yet socks marches on. lol Dude you need to get a life...posting about March snow events in March on a weather board on a Wednesday night mean you have none. Make sure you don't take pics of your snow pack tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I'm sure that there is, too because climo dictates that most snowfall occurs in the 1st half of the month, when the NAO is still very relevant. We know that you're sex life must be raging, socks. Yes, it would be interesting to find the NAO correlation after March 15th or so...I bet it goes way down to almost nothing because its zero in April...only an extreme west based block does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Dude you need to get a life...posting about March snow events in March on a weather board on a Wednesday night mean you have none. Make sure you don't take pics of your snow pack tonight. He pissed you off....you've gone on a trolling bender. It's not like we're 21, anyway......I'm 30 and you're about to be.......I'll gladly forego the social scene, should a good threat coincide with a wknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 He pissed you off....you've gone on a trolling bender. It's not like we're 21, anyway......I'm 30 and you're about to be.......I'll gladly forego the social scene, should a good threat coincide with a wknd. I never brought up the personal life thing once. You'll never see me do that. That was bush league and an immature response to a post that had plenty of hard meteorological data...just what he wants right? He wants good meteorological discussion and no silly personal fights?...unless it doesn't match his point, then its time to get into the personal life of a 29 year old meteorologist posting on a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I never brought up the personal life thing once. You'll never see me do that. That was bush league and an immature response to a post that had plenty of hard meteorological data...just what he wants right? He wants good meteorological discussion and no silly personal fights?...unless it doesn't match his point, then its time to get into the personal life of a 29 year old meteorologist posting on a weather board. I agree...very BIrving like, only more brazen and referencing a less sensitive issue. We all have our days...I can be a d*ck, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I agree...very BIrving like, only more brazen and referencing a less sensitive issue. We all have our days...I can be a d*ck, too. It only remains non-personal and cordial discussion until the said offender brings up your personal life completely unprovoked, that is why I am responding the way I am. He brought it up when I asked to prove what he claimed I said and then I posted examples proving his "early spring in February" wrong. Yeah it "seems" like spring because we just endured a -3F month in January with 3-4 feet of snow for the majority of our posters...so a merely "average" final 3 weeks of February with nickle and dime events and slightly below avg temps feels like spring time...but guess what, that is climo. January wasn't climo....January 7 to Feb 2, 2011 was a 4 week taste of the Green Mountains. Of course that wasn't going to continue. February was a taste of SNE climo in roller coaster fashion....yeah we would have preferred the 36-37F high every day to preserve our snow pack, but that didn't happen...a roller coaster was bound to happen eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Some people like Earthlight give up early and easy. But then there are diehards like me, or at least those who sex life doesn't depend on whether it's warm enough for the beach. Atrocious post...I root harder for snow than anybody. But I know when its time to call it a day, and that is now. Apparently you dont, because last April you kept talking about how we were going to see more snow...I didnt see a flake after Feb 26. My sex life hardly depends on the beach, either...but summer to me means girls in bikinis, beer, the beach, and baseball. Im sorry if it doesnt mean the same to you, i apologize in advance for your sweaty mountain hikes with your backpack on before your return to one of your twelve vacation houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Atrocious post...I root harder for snow than anybody. But I know when its time to call it a day, and that is now. Apparently you dont, because last April you kept talking about how we were going to see more snow...I didnt see a flake after Feb 26. My sex life hardly depends on the beach, either...but summer to me means girls in bikinis, beer, the beach, and baseball. Im sorry if it doesnt mean the same to you, i apologize in advance for your sweaty mountain hikes with your backpack on before your return to one of your twelve vacation houses. To be fair its impossible to tell whether Mar 15-Apr 10 will deliver snow. You can throw in the towal now which is fine...esp down there since your late Mar and early Apr climo is pretty bad for snow, but nothing on the charts will show either direction what you will see in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Atrocious post...I root harder for snow than anybody. But I know when its time to call it a day, and that is now. Apparently you dont, because last April you kept talking about how we were going to see more snow...I didnt see a flake after Feb 26. My sex life hardly depends on the beach, either...but summer to me means girls in bikinis, beer, the beach, and baseball. Im sorry if it doesnt mean the same to you, i apologize in advance for your sweaty mountain hikes with your backpack on before your return to one of your twelve vacation houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I can't wait to go to the conference and bang Baltimore chicks with confederate accents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I can't wait to go to the conference and bang Baltimore chicks with confederate accents. We need to take a road trip to Ocean City. I swear I have gotten more girls there than any other location. It is literally like an infestation of incredibly hot, in shape, down to earth girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Its funny Ray...you made a comment many days ago about how cold air Canada doesn't mean sh** unless it gets down here and said "welcome to the 1980s"....the 1980s had a ton of late season events while sucking balls in the DJF timeframe. Maybe, just maybe, all this late season cold in Canada is priming us for a 1980s late season event. It seems we always found a way (esp in NE) to tap into that late season Canadian cold for a late event that was pretty substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 We need to take a road trip to Ocean City. I swear I have gotten more girls there than any other location. It is literally like an infestation of incredibly hot, in shape, down to earth girls. Get down there on Thursday and maybe we can hit that up on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Its funny Ray...you made a comment many days ago about how cold air Canada doesn't mean sh** unless it gets down here and said "welcome to the 1980s"....the 1980s had a ton of late season events while sucking balls in the DJF timeframe. Maybe, just maybe, all this late season cold in Canada is priming us for a 1980s late season event. It seems we always found a way (esp in NE) to tap into that late season Canadian cold for a late event that was pretty substantial. Exactly what I meant. Those Nina winters of the 80's, especially were cold, dry-cutter-cold,dry...rinse, repeat... The tulips will be torunced, me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Exactly what I meant. Those Nina winters of the 80's, especially were cold, dry-cutter-cold,dry...rinse, repeat. The tulips will be torunced, me thinks. Some of the greatest late season events in SNE have occurred in the the 1980s....March 29 1984 was epic...thundersnow in YBY with winds gusting over 60 knots and over 80 knots near ORH (literally hurricane force with +SN). April '82 of course we all know about and my first pic ever taken in the snow as a baby. April '87 with OVER 2 feet in Princeton MA and 17" in ORH...and even 9"+ in your BY...that was Apr 28, 1987. Not early April. April 1989 had 4" here with up to 7" in Princeton. April '83 also had a decent event that actually changed to rain unfortunately but was close to being much bigger. 2-4" before the 34F rain but could have been a foot plus. And it was late again too...like Apr 19 or something. Apr '87 also had an event EARLIER that month that dumped 4" in ORH and 2-3" int he KGAY region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Some of the greatest late season events in SNE have occurred in the the 1980s....March 29 1984 was epic...thundersnow in YBY with winds gusting over 60 knots and over 80 knots near ORH (literally hurricane force with +SN). April '82 of course we all know about and my first pic ever taken in the snow as a baby. April '87 with OVER 2 feet in Princeton MA and 17" in ORH...and even 9"+ in your BY...that was Apr 28, 1987. Not early April. April 1989 had 4" here with up to 7" in Princeton. April '83 also had a decent event that actually changed to rain unfortunately but was close to being much bigger. 2-4" before the 34F rain but could have been a foot plus. And it was late again too...like Apr 19 or something. Apr '87 also had an event EARLIER that month that dumped 4" in ORH and 2-3" int he KGAY region. My first wx memory and exactly the one that I had in mind. Gotta crash....these late night DISCOs rock....can't wait to have them in person this July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Noreaster, how's England! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 This is actually the longest stretch in ORH recorded history (since new airport site in 1947) they have gone without 6" after Apr 1st. Last time was 1997. Earlier occurrences were 1996, 1987, 1982, 1977, 1972, 1971, 1967, 1965, 1961, 1958, 1957, 1956, You can see there has never been anything close to the current 14 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 1997 wont be repeated in our life times...that is one thing I think we can bank on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Atrocious post...I root harder for snow than anybody. But I know when its time to call it a day, and that is now. Apparently you dont, because last April you kept talking about how we were going to see more snow...I didnt see a flake after Feb 26. My sex life hardly depends on the beach, either...but summer to me means girls in bikinis, beer, the beach, and baseball. Im sorry if it doesnt mean the same to you, i apologize in advance for your sweaty mountain hikes with your backpack on before your return to one of your twelve vacation houses. This area averages more snow in March than December, that's simply a fact. "Climo is a b**ch" goes both ways: at some point, we're going to make up for the low snowfall totals we've seen recently in March, and it would probably occur in a La Niña given historical analogs like 1956, 1960, and 1967. Why do you think it's time to give up on March 2nd when we're in a La Niña and the best model, the ECM, is showing a cut-off Nor'easter in the longer range? I don't think the pattern is extremely favorable right now, but that doesn't mean we can't get a couple moderate events over the course of the month. And again, models are only really worth looking at out to Day 7-10. We might be fairly confident that it won't snow on March 6th this year, but how do we know we aren't getting a March 1960 redux on the 20th? So it's not quite time to call it a day, especially where I live. March has had some of history's most exciting snowstorms; it's the month where you expect things to wind down, but have the best chance of seeing a huge blizzard. Storms like March 1888, March 1914, March 1960, and March 1993 are among the most powerful known to meteorologists, and that's worth studying and getting excited about. I love the contrasting airmasses and potential for cut-offs that March brings, it's unique in that we have springtime moisture along with well-developed arctic air. And almost all other weather in March is boring anyway...if we don't get snow, we're getting 50F and rain with chilly east winds. Considering how close we are to making history, why not keep tracking? Its funny Ray...you made a comment many days ago about how cold air Canada doesn't mean sh** unless it gets down here and said "welcome to the 1980s"....the 1980s had a ton of late season events while sucking balls in the DJF timeframe. Maybe, just maybe, all this late season cold in Canada is priming us for a 1980s late season event. It seems we always found a way (esp in NE) to tap into that late season Canadian cold for a late event that was pretty substantial. There seems to be a confusion about what factors are important for a late-season snowfall. Do you believe the cold Canadian airmass is the key factor that makes you figure March will produce this season? Is it your belief that Don Sutherland is correct about a return to -NAO/-AO blocking? Is it because of the active Pacific pattern we have right now with systems tracking through the country frequently? What factors should we be looking at if the usual teleconnectors don't really apply now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 You get a fetish in your head and grab hold of it like a pit bull. Wasn't he going on and on about how important the PNA was and how we couldn't get waves to "enter the country at the right angle" or something without a +PNA and how useless the NAO early in the season? Now he's got an NAO fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 There seems to be a confusion about what factors are important for a late-season snowfall. Do you believe the cold Canadian airmass is the key factor that makes you figure March will produce this season? Is it your belief that Don Sutherland is correct about a return to -NAO/-AO blocking? Is it because of the active Pacific pattern we have right now with systems tracking through the country frequently? What factors should we be looking at if the usual teleconnectors don't really apply now? Teleconnectors become pretty moot after Mar 15th...they still matter but much much less than typical winter time climo. Once into April, they have basically zero correlation here. I haven'y looked it for your area, but its probably similar, maybe your area still relies on blocking a bit more. But I think its more climo. Blocking will still produce cold there so it might be more correlated to late Mar events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 April '83 also had a decent event that actually changed to rain unfortunately but was close to being much bigger. 2-4" before the 34F rain but could have been a foot plus. And it was late again too...like Apr 19 or something. April 19, 1983 was the latest accumulating snowfall at JFK; a bit over 1" fell, I believe. Do you know what the synoptics looked like? The latest snowfall I can find here in Dobbs Ferry was April 24, 1967 with about 0.4" ? Did that affect SNE as well? There was another event on April 27, 1967 which may have hit you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Seems like he has replaced his early season PNA fetish and trashing of the NAO for a late season NAO fetish. I believe the NAO is more important later in the season because of the tendency for cut-offs and the shorter wavelengths. PNA seems less important in late March, April. Perhaps Will can clarify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 April 19, 1983 was the latest accumulating snowfall at JFK; a bit over 1" fell, I believe. Do you know what the synoptics looked like? The latest snowfall I can find here in Dobbs Ferry was April 24, 1967 with about 0.4" ? Did that affect SNE as well? There was another event on April 27, 1967 which may have hit you? April 24, 1967 produced 3.4" at ORH...amazingly there was two more events in May...both a trace but the May 25-26, 1967 produced 2-4" just N of ORH...probably even an inch at my place. It gave over 6" to the mondanocks N of here. The coop of Fitzwilliam NH in the monadnocks got 6" but that was measured at 7am after it had ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I believe the NAO is more important later in the season because of the tendency for cut-offs and the shorter wavelengths. That was the same argument you made against the NAO in Dec. You're contradicting yourself all over the place.. sometimes better just to admit we don't know all the answers. I agree.. let Will clear it up. FWIW the NAO appears to correlate well to air temperatures even in April. Not quite as well as Jan/Feb but better Dec. So that would tell me that the NAO still does have a big effect even in March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The May 25-26, 1967 event was the most prolific event that late in the season for the area. This wasnt the first week of may. It was almost June. That is incredible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I believe the NAO is more important later in the season because of the tendency for cut-offs and the shorter wavelengths. PNA seems less important in late March, April. Perhaps Will can clarify? NAO loses its punch late in the season...in can cause cutoffs more frequently....but it doesnt "force" systems south like it does in Jan and Feb and sometimes Dec...at least to the point of being big snow events. Its weird relationship for snow here...if the NAO block is too "good", it prevents good arctic cold getting ingested into the system and it ends up as a 35F rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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