40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Everybody in this thread could use a nice snowstorm All great people, but this crap happens on here during slow times.....none of this ever goes on in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Let's just get some snow and we won't have to worry about these quibbles. Small problem: It never snows in March anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 All great people, but this crap happens on here during slow times.....none of this ever goes on in person. Of course, it's an internet message board...half the sh** that is talked on these forums wouldn't even leave peoples mouths in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Small problem: It never snows in March anymore. This wasn't your philosophy last year when you were telling me it would snow until April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 All great people, but this crap happens on here during slow times.....none of this ever goes on in person. Its going to get worse before it gets better too....This impending rainstorm will undoubtedly bring out troll comments from the usual suspects. I'm sure he will be posting a bunch of "this is a great winter pattern" type comments when he is 50F and raining even though most of us have said this will be ugly days ago.This isn't counting possible change to wintry precip on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 If that closed cut-off on the day 10 EURO actually exists and is a little further N (likely imo), then we may have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Its going to get worse before it gets better too....This impending rainstorm will undoubtedly bring out troll comments from the usual suspects. I'm sure he will be posting a bunch of "this is a great winter pattern" type comments when he is 50F and raining even though most of us have said this will be ugly days ago.This isn't counting possible change to wintry precip on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 This wasn't your philosophy last year when you were telling me it would snow until April It did....we had 3.5" on 4/27 in Middlebury. You should have been at your VT place, freaky to see white on green. Seriously though, March needs to man up. We are supposed to get more snow in March than December. What the hell is this crap pattern? Looking at the 0z GFS tonight made me vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 It did....we had 3.5" on 4/27 in Middlebury. You should have been at your VT place, freaky to see white on green. Seriously though, March needs to man up. We are supposed to get more snow in March than December. What the hell is this crap pattern? Looking at the 0z GFS tonight made me vomit. Winter is cooked there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 It did....we had 3.5" on 4/27 in Middlebury. You should have been at your VT place, freaky to see white on green. Seriously though, March needs to man up. We are supposed to get more snow in March than December. Time to come to the realization that it is over at this latitude..my 75+" is more than enough..I am done..bring on baseball and heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Winter is cooked there. I think that day 10 cut-off is a plausible threat; the fact that it has existed to some degree on consecutive runs piqued my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I think that day 10 cut-off is a plausible threat; the fact that it existed to some dgree on consecutive runs piqued my interest. Cutoff season is kicking off so its def plausible. We'll see as we get closer. Lets not confuse this though with me clamoring for a return to January 2011 winter pattern where we get 50" in 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Cutoff season is kicking off so its def plausible. We'll see as we get closer. Lets not confuse this though with me clamoring for a return to January 2011 winter pattern where we get 50" in 4 weeks. March 3 and I have 88.5" with a plausible, major threat on the charts and it's 13.3\-1, over a powdery refresher, as I type...life is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 March 3 and I have 88.5" with a plausible, major threat on the charts...life is good. You'll get 100" I think...might be sloppy, but you'll get it I think. Probably a slop April event to get it over the top. We are kind of due for one of those...obviously doesn't mean it will happen, but they do happen every so often and we are in a big April snow drought. I think we'll break it this year. Teleconnectors don't give a flip that time of year anyway. Same with the Mar 12-14 potential cutoff. Wavelength shortneing will make all forecasts beyond 5 days very tough because any shortwave has potential to cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 You'll get 100" I think...might be sloppy, but you'll get it I think. Probably a slop April event to get it over the top. We are kind of due for one of those...obviously doesn't mean it will happen, but they do happen every so often and we are in a big April snow drought. I think we'll break it this year. Teleconnectors don't give a flip that time of year anyway. Same with the Mar 12-14 potential cutoff. Wavelength shortneing will make all forecasts beyond 5 days very tough because any shortwave has potential to cut off. I have been saying exactly this for days, but it's always met with sobs from socks over the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Time to come to the realization that it is over at this latitude..my 75+" is more than enough..I am done..bring on baseball and heat. It shouldn't be...we're supposed to see at least half a foot of snow in March up here. I'm not saying we will this season but it would be almost unheard of for Westchester not to have a single accumulation all month. People are forgetting that we can only see out to like 3/12 on the models...there's been plenty of good storms after that in recent years such as the twin Nor'easters in late March 2004 and the April 2003 events...not to mention that one of the most famous March events of all, 1956, took place on the 18/19 of the month. I can't say I like the direction we're headed with the ugly vortex over the Atlantic and western trough but all it takes is a couple days of a favorable pattern to pop a big one. You were done on the January 27th rainstorm so not too worried about your spring fever. I think that day 10 cut-off is a plausible threat; the fact that it existed to some dgree on consecutive runs piqued my interest. Yeah that's the threat I'm looking at...the only problem is the northern stream low behind it would pump in a milder southerly flow. We are entering cut-off season, and the Day 10 ECM does show hints of a +PNA forming with the cold in Canada getting dragged towards the Northeast. This is the first Day 10 map that's looked decent in a while. Maybe we can get a couple of events in late March to save the winter from ending in disgraceful fashion. I just want to walk around town once more in the beautiful snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Time to come to the realization that it is over at this latitude..my 75+" is more than enough..I am done..bring on baseball and heat. I hope this summer won't be as hot. Last summer was absolutely miserable. I don't have AC and my Island location didn't seem to cool things much at all. Room temperatures in the upstairs of the house were at or above 80 for at least three weeks in a row and that had never happened before. We had that hot day in July where the temp flirted with 100 and from then on houses without AC just couldn't cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 It shouldn't be...we're supposed to see at least half a foot of snow in March up here. I'm not saying we will this season but it would be almost unheard of for Westchester not to have a single accumulation all month. People are forgetting that we can only see out to like 3/12 on the models...there's been plenty of good storms after that in recent years such as the twin Nor'easters in late March 2004 and the April 2003 events...not to mention that one of the most famous March events of all, 1956, took place on the 18/19 of the month. I can't say I like the direction we're headed with the ugly vortex over the Atlantic and western trough but all it takes is a couple days of a favorable pattern to pop a big one. You were done on the January 27th rainstorm so not too worried about your spring fever. Yeah that's the threat I'm looking at...the only problem is the northern stream low behind it would pump in a milder southerly flow. We are entering cut-off season, and the Day 10 ECM does show hints of a +PNA forming with the cold in Canada getting dragged towards the Northeast. This is the first Day 10 map that's looked decent in a while. Maybe we can get a couple of events in late March to save the winter from ending in disgraceful fashion. I just want to walk around town once more in the beautiful snow. Would you put the damn index chart down.....they don't matter with regard to late season cut-offs.....sure, it's cool to thave them working in your favor, but they aren't needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 We'll you put the damn index chart down.....they don't matter with regard to cut-offs.....sure, it's cool to thave them working in your favor, but they aren't needed. Of course anything can happen in any pattern, but we particularly want a -NAO in the late season. Having a ridge out west also makes it easier to avoid cutters and have energy amplify to our south. The teleconnections are less important later on but still matter. Just take a look at March 1960, a 30" snowstorm here: classic -EPO/-NAO. Textbook. We can forget about big snows, especially further down the coast, if that monster vortex sits over Greenland and we have the trough from hell rotting over San Francisco. We need a decent Pacific to provide the cold and a decent Atlantic to slow things down so energy can cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Would you put the damn index chart down.....they don't matter with regard to late season cut-offs.....sure, it's cool to thave them working in your favor, but they aren't needed. 1997 never happened....had a big +NAO and a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Of course anything can happen in any pattern, but we particularly want a -NAO in the late season. Having a ridge out west also makes it easier to avoid cutters and have energy amplify to our south. The teleconnections are less important later on but still matter. Just take a look at March 1960, a 30" snowstorm here: classic -EPO/-NAO. Textbook. We can forget about big snows, especially further down the coast, if that monster vortex sits over Greenland and we have the trough from hell rotting over San Francisco. We need a decent Pacific to provide the cold and a decent Atlantic to slow things down so energy can cut off. Mar 1960 happened on Mar 3, 1960. Big difference from even Mar 15 or Mar 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I have been saying exactly this for days, but it's always met with sobs from socks over the NAO. There's been a pretty dramatic contrast between what this winter was like during the -NAO period and what it is like now in a +NAO. No argument over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 There's been a pretty dramatic contrast between what this winter was like during the -NAO period and what it is like now in a +NAO. No argument over that. Mar 19, 2004 had a huge -PNA...ridging SW US, but huge trough far NW and W Canada and big ridge over the Aleutions and a vortex near S Greenland/Iceland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Of course anything can happen in any pattern, but we particularly want a -NAO in the late season. Having a ridge out west also makes it easier to avoid cutters and have energy amplify to our south. The teleconnections are less important later on but still matter. Just take a look at March 1960, a 30" snowstorm here: classic -EPO/-NAO. Textbook. We can forget about big snows, especially further down the coast, if that monster vortex sits over Greenland and we have the trough from hell rotting over San Francisco. We need a decent Pacific to provide the cold and a decent Atlantic to slow things down so energy can cut off. Dude, give it up...teleconnectors in the 2nd half of March are pretty trivial You get a fetish in your head and grab hold of it like a pit bull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I hope this summer won't be as hot. Last summer was absolutely miserable. I don't have AC and my Island location didn't seem to cool things much at all. Room temperatures in the upstairs of the house were at or above 80 for at least three weeks in a row and that had never happened before. We had that hot day in July where the temp flirted with 100 and from then on houses without AC just couldn't cool off. I can almost guarantee this summer wont be as hot as 2010. Almost. That was pretty anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I can almost guarantee this summer wont be as hot as 2010. Almost. That was pretty anomalous. Ha...was just thinking that, tonight. Summer 2000 redux, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Ha...was just thinking that, tonight. Summer 2000 redux, I hope. 2009 is fine by me. That was actually colder than summer 2000 here...but that was more anomalous because many of those summer 2000 records low high temps were under full sunshine. Summer 2009 was plagued by strataform rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 2009 is fine by me. That was actually colder than summer 2000 here...but that was more anomalous because many of those summer 2000 records low high temps were under full sunshine. Summer 2009 was plagued by strataform rain. Whatever....either is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Dude, give it up...teleconnectors in the 2nd half of March are pretty trivial You get a fetish in your head and grab hold of it like a pit bull. Winter ended Feb 2nd. Any storms that happen since will be considered "transient events within a non-wintry pattern". Because we should expect non-stop wintry snow events in March and late February without any temps above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Winter ended Feb 2nd. Any storms that happen since will be considered "transient events within a non-wintry pattern". Because we should expect non-stop wintry snow events in March and late February without any temps above freezing. I get that he disputes me, but when someone like you tells me that I'm wrong, I usually follow it up with a "my bad" in pretty short order. Tip even posted something to the same effect, today, yet socks marches on. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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