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MARCH

Mr Torchey

By Mr Torchey,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

But you still try to spin that the pattern didn't break and that DT was wrong. Fact is he schooled most of you with his bold prediction. He was right, the pattern broke. He called it early too, he didn't sit around and wait until weeks passed.

I've said since early February we'd be in an up and down pattern..some cold, some warm, some snow some rain. Yet there's been repeated calls for a return to solid winter which just hasn't happened...nor will it this winter for all the reasons DT outlines in his PPT.

Give him credit, he was bold enough to call it like it was.

What in the blue fook are you talking about? I never said a single thing about DT's call being wrong. Go find me a quote otherwise don't say ridiculous statements like that.

You have this preconceived notion that I was saying we'd see the January pattern continue, lol. I'm not sure where you are getting it from. Maybe you have me confused with someone else. I probably would not have made a thread on February 5th about a big torch coming in mid-month if I thought the January pattern would continue. Your argument makes zero sense to me.

It was a warm finish to the month there in your BY. It was average to even below average temps in most other areas. Final 21 days at BDL was -1.6F and at PVD it was -0.9F with slightly below avg snow at BDL and solidly below average snow at PVD. BOS/ORH were slightly below avg temps and average snow the final 21 days of the month. You are what your record says you are...you can believe what you want though.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

But you still try to spin that the pattern didn't break and that DT was wrong. Fact is he schooled most of you with his bold prediction. He was right, the pattern broke. He called it early too, he didn't sit around and wait until weeks passed.

I've said since early February we'd be in an up and down pattern..some cold, some warm, some snow some rain. Yet there's been repeated calls for a return to solid winter which just hasn't happened...nor will it this winter for all the reasons DT outlines in his PPT.

Give him credit, he was bold enough to call it like it was.

Scott, solid Winter never left here. You've seen the pics I post. Does it look like Winter has been on hiatus? Working/playing outside from sun-up to sun down everyday (sometimes at night) I can tell you for sure it hasn't been. Above average snowfall here and nights with double digit negatives for February, even BOS came in -1.0 for the month. How much would you wager on New England not seeing another Major snowfall before the season is out? Personally I wouldn't bet a dime because the odds aren't that good.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

First off, Will didn't say this. Will said it went from epic to average, as it did.

In regards to the rest, you're mostly right, but its becoming a climo debate really. We had up and downs of warmth/cold but it ended up below normal. We don't live in the NNE mountains or Greenland, I don't think return to winter means we won't get some warm days. Climo says we go up and down temp wise. Outside of Will/MRG its not common that people go 60+ days with >12" snow pack. Granted, it hasn't bee epic like some thought, but for the majority its been average.

What in the blue fook are you talking about? I never said a single thing about DT's call being wrong. Go find me a quote otherwise don't say ridiculous statements like that.

You have this preconceived notion that I was saying we'd see the January pattern continue, lol. I'm not sure where you are getting it from. Maybe you have me confused with someone else. I probably would not have made a thread on February 5th about a big torch coming in mid-month if I thought the January pattern would continue. Your argument makes zero sense to me.

It was a warm finish to the month there in your BY. It was average in most other areas. Final 21 days at BDL was -1.6F and at PVD it was -0.9F with slightly below avg snow at BDL and solidly below average snow at PVD. BOS/ORH were slightly below avg temps and average snow the final 21 days of the month. You are what your record says you are...you can believe what you want though.

AWT

BTW, 27/14 here, chilly for spring

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wokeupthisam

wokeupthisam

Posted
Posted

Too early to call Lamb or Lion here, but the previous posts about winter being over - definitely latitude-dependent 2nd half of Feb. When SNE was getting the 20+ events and I got 8 or 9", the angst from NNE'ers was palpable, and SNE'ers were saying "you'll get your chances - things shift north with climo as we get toward march". That's exactly what happened. Still a deep snowpack here, the (relatively) warmer sunny days only succeeeded in clearing the roofs. I'm selfishly hoping winter dies quick for me: my snowblower gearcase is shot trying to munch on friday night's icy 4", :angry: and I got to experience shoveling my 200' drive by hand after sunday's 6.5" of new. :axe:

NOT something i want to do again this season (the gearcase part I need is backordered from the manufacturer til mid-month).

Still, I'm not betting against winter here until April 15th or so, no matter what the teleconnectors show

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Great squall line just passed south through here - perhaps it will reach to MA.... 10 minute total white out. :) 15F now....

Hey Rick, I've been watching that thin line. Looks like it's running right down the NYS Thruway and sinking South. That line is already south of me but perhaps more can pop up.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

I think the feeling of winter ending has been accelerated by the fact that we had a few days in the 60F range; it's natural for it to warm up in late February, but there was a sudden turnaround from persistently below average temperatures to near beach weather. It would be much different psychologically if every day had been 40-45F, but the sudden appearance of spring-time temperatures and bare ground threw people who believed the epic winter was going to continue. I really do think this was an average February, however, even down here. I had 10" of snow, some cold weather, some mild weather....nothing really to complain about...

March is looking a bit worrisome, however. The change towards an unfavorable pattern that began after 2/2 seems to be accelerating with the Pacific ridge totally broken down and a monster +NAO/Baffin Island vortex. We are rapidly approaching a point where we need to get lucky in an unfavorable regime rather than actually enjoying a solid March jet configuration like we had for classic storms such as '58 and '60. That's not to say we can't get lucky, but I think many see February as the point when we spiraled away from such an anomalous and gorgeous blocking pattern. The extreme -NAO/-AO is dead in the water, let's face it, that's not coming back for Winter 10-11.

There's also the fact that February is known for big snowstorms and we're just not really used to this kind of month-- especially over the last decade. Certainly down around here it does feel like spring has sprung, but that's a function of the gradient pattern we're in.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

There's also the fact that February is known for big snowstorms and we're just not really used to this kind of month-- especially over the last decade. Certainly down around here it does feel like spring has sprung, but that's a function of the gradient pattern we're in.

Yeah, it's such a severe gradient, Alex...parts of Canada have been running 20-30F below normal while DC finished February +3.6. I was in Vermont this weekend: the Champlain Valley had about 10" on the ground with over 30" snow pack at 2000' where we were hiking and sledding (fun times). Even Albany had about a foot on the ground, but you drive 20 minutes south of there on I-87 and there's literally just patches as we have in Westchester. The -EPO/Alaska block is sending strong northerly flow into Canada with below average temperatures there, but the zonal pattern is keeping much of the CONUS milder, a bit like happened in 07-08. This map shows it all:

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Nice little snow shower here...not heavy enough that I'd call it a "squall"...but still another little batch to move in.

Nice fire hose line again this year hitting the Berks, we have seen several of these type of squalls this year, owes to the cold that lurks just to our North. It will not take much.

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