weatherMA Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I know it's still a long shot for anything note worthy but it would be funny if it worked out to be some decent ice or snow at the end after 7 news puts out a torch 7 day forecast like this. Why do they have Monday with such a high temp??? Most other stations/NWS/TWC all have low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I know it's still a long shot for anything note worthy but it would be funny if it worked out to be some decent ice or snow at the end after 7 news puts out a torch 7 day forecast like this. That quite honestly might be one of the worst forecasts issued in the history of meteorology. They can't even get day 1 right..31 tomorrow lol..Hills stay in upper teens and BOS is prob 22 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 That quite honestly might be one of the worst forecasts issued in meteorology. They can't even get day 1 right..31 tomorrow lol..Hills stay in upper teens and BOS is prob 22 or so See my edit about Monday...56?? TWC: 40 NWS: 40 WBZ: 42 WCVB: 40 and tomorrow with their 31... TWC: 22 NWS: 21 WCVB: 22 WBZ: 27 Just horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Just noticed that all six forecast periods in my zfp with precip from Saturday-Monday night have a frozen/freezing element to them. Not to torchlike. 23.8./9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Joe, I'm just trying to keep things in perspective for you guys! lol Don't be offended. Just good natured ribbing. If you guys want to say " Winter is over here at the coast." fine. Although, I disagree because i think there will be more significant snow even to the coast. Cold temps, wind, and snow are still very much a part of life here, Winter lives. 1.5" new @2k, just under an 1" here at the house. We are fully aware of climo lol, and I am glad and jealous that you are still enjoying mid winter conditions, trust me, you dont want a pic of my landscape, although soon enough I will be hitting the beach and you the rivers and lakes, no matter what good times for all!! I would love a snowbomb in March, always fun to get plastered and then its gone (down here) just as fast as it fell, lets just hope flooding is kept to a minimum! Enjoy the snow Pete, enjoy it for all of us, it got damn cold out the last few hours looking forward to a bitter 24 hours courtesy of nw winds blowing over your snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It will be nice to have a winter chill tomorrow morning. Maybe...haha, this type of cold will start getting old soon. This is the point forecast for Stowe village at only 800ft... Blustery and -9F.. -30F wind chills. The mountain will be even colder... fun. Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around -9. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 14 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 February finals...clear gradient pattern. Final: DCA: +3.6 NYC: +1.4 BOS: -1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Thx for the heads up. We had some good ones earlier but i'll take some more. This talk of ice has me thinking I may neat to excavate my generator. 24.4/10 Probably a good idea to always have it at the ready. Big winter incoming..big winter incoming I kid around a lot but I really think that this Winter will be taking a few more swipes at us. I guess Winter is probably over for guys like Forky, then again they don't really get real Winter down there typically. For people to be declaring the month of March a total loss on 3/2 seems foolish. I couldn't care less what the models are indicating beyond 3-4 days. Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 There was no question the pattern was going to break for a while. Even the long range hinted at this around 2/2. The question at that point was if we could still rack up some decent snowfalls. It became more about getting the numbers from that point on because lets face it...we were not going to have a repeat of that 6 week stretch. It wasn't until mid Feb that the pattern started to look unfavorable because even Will and I, as well as a few other stated that we were a little worried, but it was too close to determine. A week later when models became too aggressive in breaking down the -PNA and retrograding the gulf ridge, it became apparent that March could be questionable. I admit this wasn't really what I thought would happen back even on 2/2, but I was always questionable about the epic March. March is one of those months where something like the d10 euro could happen, as wavelengths shorten. It's nice seeing the cold and confluence creating 1050 highs, so we at least have that going for us. It will just be a matter of timing and placement of troughs and teleconnections. Yeah but aside of one or two events it's been what DT said...over. We're now looking 7-10 days ahead again for the next threat....in 7 days we'll still be looking 7-10 days ahead and eventually it'll be April. I hope the post frontal works out and think it will...after that.... I think we were all right - I remember putting my own thoughts for change back in the middle of January. Didn't go over too well with the usual hide-flame-behind-pleasant-rhetoric-smoke-screen replies I received. But, yea - otherwise agreed... The thing is, bowling season begins really around March 15 and ends around April 20th... anything after that is a fluke, anything prior is just winter refusing to quit. haha. Seriously though, as we get into this month these cut-off spring deals don't necessarily fit with teleconnectors too well. In fact, if the back ground PNA is negative, and the NAO fluctuates briefly negative and then pulls out, if there is a trough in the OV, that sudden lifting out of the westerly core might also effectively "strand" the OV trough and viola! Instant crawling bomb on the EC. That's more than less what the Euro is doing there.... As bad as the Euro has been this season, a blind folded dart thrower at a vertigo convention might do just as well at this kind of time range. Your sentiments although not well received by the snow humpers were largely right on the money. I know it's still a long shot for anything note worthy but it would be funny if it worked out to be some decent ice or snow at the end after 7 news puts out a torch 7 day forecast like this. Why do they have Monday with such a high temp??? Most other stations/NWS/TWC all have low 40s That screams big big winter incoming. I get a ton of snow when it's 50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yeah but aside of one or two events it's been what DT said...over. We're now looking 7-10 days ahead again for the next threat....in 7 days we'll still be looking 7-10 days ahead and eventually it'll be April. I hope the post frontal works out and think it will...after that.... If we don't count the wintry events in the final 3 weeks of February, then it was over before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I can't come up with a scientific reason why winter isn't done, but my anecdotal contribution is that it just isn't.....feel free to bash away. There's not really a great reason to say its done either...at least for our areas. Somewhere like Messenger's BY where flowers are already blooming, then yeah, might be able to stick a fork in accumulating snow events over 2 or 3"...but for Boston metro and all points NW, I'm sure we'll have more chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 If we don't count the wintry events in the final 3 weeks of February, then it was over before that. If we don't count Jan 12 and Jan 27 then it really wasn't an epic winter at all. Kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 33/4 very, very impressive CAA into my backyard at least, fireplace is thumpin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 If we don't count Jan 12 and Jan 27 then it really wasn't an epic winter at all. Kind of meh. Yeah good point. We should just throw out events at random...they only count if they support what we're trying to say. That's why I think its funny when its claimed that we somehow went into this brutally snow-less and/or mild pattern the final 3 weeks of February. Numbers are a b**ch sometimes...they pretty much say it was a dead average final 3 weeks of the month for both snow and temps. It is what it is. We shouldn't make it out to be a great winter period for us because it wasn't, but it also wasn't a terrible one either. It was about exactly what you'd expect for the final 3 weeks of February....a couple milder spells mixed with some still quite nasty cold shots and a few light to occasionally moderate snow events in there. It would have been nice to see sustained at or below average temps, but a roller coaster happens at some point almost every winter. Obviously in far SE areas and the S coast it was a bit worse and up into SW NH and CNE it was better than average...but a large majority of the posting population in these threads had a pretty average final 21 days of the month. As Bill Parcells always said "You are what your record says you are" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Why even count any of the snowfall this whole winter..Toss all storms and all amounts.. Everyone is at 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yeah good point. We should just throw out events at random...they only count if they support what we're trying to say. That's why I think its funny when its claimed that we somehow went into this brutally snow-less and/or mild pattern the final 3 weeks of February. Numbers are a b**ch sometimes...they pretty much say it was a dead average final 3 weeks of the month for both snow and temps. It is what it is. We shouldn't make it out to be a great winter period for us because it wasn't, but it also wasn't a terrible one either. It was about exactly what you'd expect for the final 3 weeks of February....a couple milder spells mixed with some still quite nasty cold shots and a few light to occasionally moderate snow events in there. Obviously in far SE areas and the S coast it was a bit worse and up into SW NH and CNE it was better than average...but a large majority of the posting population in these threads had a pretty average final 21 days of the month. As Bill Parcells always said "You are what your record says you are" 100% agree here Will. If you thought Feb 10-Feb 28 sucked...then you should probably move. If by "winter ended" they mean "winter went back to normal after an epic period", they are correct. Climo is a b*tch. People need to stop spinning random torches as well, 47F for messenger on March 2nd is like 4-5 above normal...so not a torch. This week will average below average to around normal. If you think "winter ended", fine, but that's climo. Winter becomes on average "less cold and snowy" in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 If we don't count the wintry events in the final 3 weeks of February, then it was over before that. Yeah good point. We should just throw out events at random...they only count if they support what we're trying to say. That's why I think its funny when its claimed that we somehow went into this brutally snow-less and/or mild pattern the final 3 weeks of February. Numbers are a b**ch sometimes...they pretty much say it was a dead average final 3 weeks of the month for both snow and temps. It is what it is. We shouldn't make it out to be a great winter period for us because it wasn't, but it also wasn't a terrible one either. It was about exactly what you'd expect for the final 3 weeks of February....a couple milder spells mixed with some still quite nasty cold shots and a few light to occasionally moderate snow events in there. It would have been nice to see sustained at or below average temps, but a roller coaster happens at some point almost every winter. Obviously in far SE areas and the S coast it was a bit worse and up into SW NH and CNE it was better than average...but a large majority of the posting population in these threads had a pretty average final 21 days of the month. As Bill Parcells always said "You are what your record says you are" how much snow did Providence, Hartford and say Plymouth/Falmouth get compared to Climo after 2/9? How much QPF? How about KTAN? Will you've been talking about a return to winter since the first day it got warm. I've had more days over 50 than I've had days with snow...it's always a few days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 I dont understand this whole snow "issue" Fact, BDR had only 4.7 inches of snow in Feb but yet we are top 3 snowiest winters overall, and with one march nor'easter, which is not hard to get, 95-96 goes to #2. This has been an epic winter for the south coast, but climo is starting to take hold, big deal, it DOES not erase what happened from Xmas to Feb 7, I mean jesus christ we had continous snowpack for 60 days west of the ct river, ON the shore. Time to watch Pete play in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Why even count any of the snowfall this whole winter..Toss all storms and all amounts.. Everyone is at 0 Yeah I mean really it was only 6-8 major snowfalls. Take all those out..along with the cold, also take away the epic snow pack, it was a horrible torch winter. I hope next winter is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 If we don't count the wintry events in the final 3 weeks of February, then it was over before that. lol. Advisory level snow and ice a couple times over the weekend, snow squalls today, high winds and heading below zero again tonight, teens tomorrow. Yup, the Daffodils will be pushing up through the couple of feet of snow anyday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 how much snow did Providence, Hartford and say Plymouth/Falmouth get compared to Climo after 2/9? How much QPF? How about KTAN? Will you've been talking about a return to winter since the first day it got warm. I've had more days over 50 than I've had days with snow...it's always a few days away. Im sorry but WTH does this have to do with anything? In mid-winter you average around 40F. Do you think the cape in late Feb averages more days of 50F or more days of snow? I'd be willing to bet its days of 50F. There's no disputing the facts, IMO, its been an average winter period from Feb10 on. If it sucked snow wise, that's climo, move. Again, you might have been a little worse-off relative to climo snow wise, but nothing outstanding. It wasn't "an early spring for most" as you seem to deem it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I still wanna know how I have exactly the same total as last year Ray, you better send me some of your CP snow darnit!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 how much snow did Providence, Hartford and say Plymouth/Falmouth get compared to Climo after 2/9? How much QPF? How about KTAN? Will you've been talking about a return to winter since the first day it got warm. I've had more days over 50 than I've had days with snow...it's always a few days away. Actually I started a thread about a possible huge warmup in mid February over a week out...but thanks for trying. We said gradient pattern and we'd be riding the line for a good hcunk of the 2nd half of the month...that's pretty much exactly what we got. BOS/ORH were average, north of there was above avg snow, and south of there was below avg snow. Your BY had the warmest weather of just about anywhere during that stretch, so yeah, you had an early spring. Which is why I used the geographic locations like "Far SE area and S coast" vs "BOS metro and points N and W". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yeah I mean really it was only 6-8 major snowfalls. Take all those out..along with the cold, also take away the epic snow pack, it was a horrible torch winter. I hope next winter is better. Yeah just toss anything and everything. Summer year round. Our climate is Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 This March has sucked vs climo so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Actually I started a thread about a possible huge warmup in mid February over a week out...but thanks for trying. We said gradient pattern and we'd be riding the line for a good hcunk of the 2nd half of the month...that's pretty much exactly what we got. BOS/ORH were average, north of there was above avg snow, and south of there was below avg snow. Your BY had the warmest weather of just about anywhere during that stretch, so yeah, you had an early spring. Which is why I used the geographic locations like "Far SE area and S coast" vs "BOS metro and points N and W". But you still try to spin that the pattern didn't break and that DT was wrong. Fact is he schooled most of you with his bold prediction. He was right, the pattern broke. He called it early too, he didn't sit around and wait until weeks passed. I've said since early February we'd be in an up and down pattern..some cold, some warm, some snow some rain. Yet there's been repeated calls for a return to solid winter which just hasn't happened...nor will it this winter for all the reasons DT outlines in his PPT. Give him credit, he was bold enough to call it like it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Messenger's turn now... Oh he is postin. This is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Will now... Like watching tennis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 But you still try to spin that the pattern didn't break and that DT was wrong. Fact is he schooled most of you with his bold prediction. He was right, the pattern broke. He called it early too, he didn't sit around and wait until weeks passed. I've said since early February we'd be in an up and down pattern..some cold, some warm, some snow some rain. Yet there's been repeated calls for a return to solid winter which just hasn't happened...nor will it this winter for all the reasons DT outlines in his PPT. Give him credit, he was bold enough to call it like it was. First off, Will didn't say this. Will said it went from epic to average, as it did. In regards to the rest, you're mostly right, but its becoming a climo debate really. We had up and downs of warmth/cold but it ended up below normal. We don't live in the NNE mountains or Greenland, I don't think return to winter means we won't get some warm days. Climo says we go up and down temp wise. Outside of Will/MRG its not common that people go 60+ days with >12" snow pack. Granted, it hasn't bee epic like some thought, but for the majority its been average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Actually I started a thread about a possible huge warmup in mid February over a week out...but thanks for trying. We said gradient pattern and we'd be riding the line for a good hcunk of the 2nd half of the month...that's pretty much exactly what we got. BOS/ORH were average, north of there was above avg snow, and south of there was below avg snow. Your BY had the warmest weather of just about anywhere during that stretch, so yeah, you had an early spring. Which is why I used the geographic locations like "Far SE area and S coast" vs "BOS metro and points N and W". I think the feeling of winter ending has been accelerated by the fact that we had a few days in the 60F range; it's natural for it to warm up in late February, but there was a sudden turnaround from persistently below average temperatures to near beach weather. It would be much different psychologically if every day had been 40-45F, but the sudden appearance of spring-time temperatures and bare ground threw people who believed the epic winter was going to continue. I really do think this was an average February, however, even down here. I had 10" of snow, some cold weather, some mild weather....nothing really to complain about... March is looking a bit worrisome, however. The change towards an unfavorable pattern that began after 2/2 seems to be accelerating with the Pacific ridge totally broken down and a monster +NAO/Baffin Island vortex. We are rapidly approaching a point where we need to get lucky in an unfavorable regime rather than actually enjoying a solid March jet configuration like we had for classic storms such as '58 and '60. That's not to say we can't get lucky, but I think many see February as the point when we spiraled away from such an anomalous and gorgeous blocking pattern. The extreme -NAO/-AO is dead in the water, let's face it, that's not coming back for Winter 10-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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