Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 If the ECM cut-off doesn't verify, we may be looking at one of the worst Marches ever. Literally nothing is in our favor: raging +NAO with Bermuda high dominating, -PNA/GoA low, strong Niña holding its own, etc. Where did winter go? Hopefully ended... duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It just seems everyone was expecting this epic March and yet the pattern looks like sh*t. I wouldn't be surprised if I don't see another snowfall of consequence this winter. Your area will get something but the weekend storm looks like a rainer, the next system is a cutter through Iowa, etc. We really needed the Sunday cutter to bomb out to reset the -NAO, but it didn't happen. I doubt this will be like March 2010 since there's so much more cold air available in Canada, but the storm track hardly looks encouraging for the Northeast to see significant snows. Given that the first week seems to be garbage, chances are really going down because so much of our March snowfall average comes from the first ten days. Your problem is that you are relying too heavily on climo....we are due for an anomalous late-season bomb, the likes of which will not be able to be discerned via teleconnectors at long leads, so it's an exercise in futility to sweat it. You are correct that if we go by the climo chart, things are looking dire, especially for your latitude....however, if this season played by the rules, then this ubber Nina would not have produced one of the most epic winter months on record for the vast majority of the NE populous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 My fingers are crossed on the post frontal system. Otherwise I think it's a long ugly stretch. Two-three weeks ago many were convinced winter would return hard at the end of Feb/early March. About a two weeks or so ago that got pushed into the 3/1ish frame...last week we pushed it into the 2nd week of March and really....now where is it on any of these maps? DT was right once the pattern broke that was it for significant threats.....hopin we pull a miracle with a post frontal system. The post-frontal system really puts eastern areas in a much better positoin than anyone else right? 28.8/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Not really, having a -NAO usually increases the chance of getting a big cut-off low Nor'easter. It would also send some of the cold air in Canada towards our region. In a general sense, sure, but the correlation is meek compared to what it is in mid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Your problem is that you are relying too heavily on climo....we are due for an anomalous late-season bomb, the likes of which will not be able to be discerned via teleconnectors at long leads, so it's an exercise in futility to sweat it. You are correct that if we go by the climo chart, things are looking dire, especially for your latitude....however, if this season played by the rules, then this ubber Nina would not have produced one of the most epic winter months on record for the vast majority of the NE populous. Sadly, it is just playing with statistics to say that... You could play Russian Roulette 500 times in a row and it might never go off... ...but I still think we are getting the Ray Special in mid-March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I can't come up with a scientific reason why winter isn't done, but my anecdotal contribution is that it just isn't.....feel free to bash away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 My fingers are crossed on the post frontal system. Otherwise I think it's a long ugly stretch. Two-three weeks ago many were convinced winter would return hard at the end of Feb/early March. About a two weeks or so ago that got pushed into the 3/1ish frame...last week we pushed it into the 2nd week of March and really....now where is it on any of these maps? DT was right once the pattern broke that was it for significant threats.....hopin we pull a miracle with a post frontal system. There was no question the pattern was going to break for a while. Even the long range hinted at this around 2/2. The question at that point was if we could still rack up some decent snowfalls. It became more about getting the numbers from that point on because lets face it...we were not going to have a repeat of that 6 week stretch. It wasn't until mid Feb that the pattern started to look unfavorable because even Will and I, as well as a few other stated that we were a little worried, but it was too close to determine. A week later when models became too aggressive in breaking down the -PNA and retrograding the gulf ridge, it became apparent that March could be questionable. I admit this wasn't really what I thought would happen back even on 2/2, but I was always questionable about the epic March. March is one of those months where something like the d10 euro could happen, as wavelengths shorten. It's nice seeing the cold and confluence creating 1050 highs, so we at least have that going for us. It will just be a matter of timing and placement of troughs and teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Sadly, it is just playing with statistics to say that... You could play Russian Roulette 500 times in a row and it might never go off... ...but I still think we are getting the Ray Special in mid-March Exactly right...I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It's snowing again..winter pattern in full effect next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 My fingers are crossed on the post frontal system. Otherwise I think it's a long ugly stretch. Two-three weeks ago many were convinced winter would return hard at the end of Feb/early March. About a two weeks or so ago that got pushed into the 3/1ish frame...last week we pushed it into the 2nd week of March and really....now where is it on any of these maps? DT was right once the pattern broke that was it for significant threats.....hopin we pull a miracle with a post frontal system. I think we were all right - I remember putting my own thoughts for change back in the middle of January. Didn't go over too well with the usual hide-flame-behind-pleasant-rhetoric-smoke-screen replies I received. But, yea - otherwise agreed... The thing is, bowling season begins really around March 15 and ends around April 20th... anything after that is a fluke, anything prior is just winter refusing to quit. haha. Seriously though, as we get into this month these cut-off spring deals don't necessarily fit with teleconnectors too well. In fact, if the back ground PNA is negative, and the NAO fluctuates briefly negative and then pulls out, if there is a trough in the OV, that sudden lifting out of the westerly core might also effectively "strand" the OV trough and viola! Instant crawling bomb on the EC. That's more than less what the Euro is doing there.... As bad as the Euro has been this season, a blind folded dart thrower at a vertigo convention might do just as well at this kind of time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I think we were all right - I remember putting my own thoughts for change back in the middle of January. Didn't go over too well with the usual hide-flame-behind-pleasant-rhetoric-smoke-screen replies I received. But, yea - otherwise agreed... The thing is, bowling season begins really around March 15 and ends around April 20th... anything after that is a fluke, anything prior is just winter refusing to quit. haha. Seriously though, as we get into this month these cut-off spring deals don't necessarily fit with teleconnectors too well. In fact, if the back ground PNA is negative, and the NAO fluctuates briefly negative and then pulls out, if there is a trough in the OV, that sudden lifting out of the westerly core might also effectively "strand" the OV trough and viola! Instant crawling bomb on the EC. That's more than less what the Euro is doing there.... As bad as the Euro has been this season, a blind folded dart thrower at a vertigo convention might do just as well at this kind of time range. Exactly the message that I have been trying to convey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 My 20-35" call is going to bust, but I will go on record right now with a FINAL call of 10-20" more imby....no more ammending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 It's snowing again..winter pattern in full effect next 10 days Yep minus the 50F temps and 3" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Exactly the message that I have been trying to convey. Yeah you got it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yep minus the 50F temps and 3" of rain. Maybe he meant astronomically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yep minus the 50F temps and 3" of rain. Only day of 50 is Saturday and that's only for the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yeah I'll go down. :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 :o Maybe a sneaky hummah in the cah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Had a Ginx-worthy squall come through at about 1:00p.m. Last about 40 minutes, pretty impressive stuff. 30.8/19 Love those thanks for mentioning me you know my fetish well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Only day of 50 is Saturday and that's only for the coastal plain It's not exactly a super torch flow for anyone, but it should bring in some rather high td's. It will be warm Saturday through Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I think we were all right - I remember putting my own thoughts for change back in the middle of January. Didn't go over too well with the usual hide-flame-behind-pleasant-rhetoric-smoke-screen replies I received. But, yea - otherwise agreed... The thing is, bowling season begins really around March 15 and ends around April 20th... anything after that is a fluke, anything prior is just winter refusing to quit. haha. Seriously though, as we get into this month these cut-off spring deals don't necessarily fit with teleconnectors too well. In fact, if the back ground PNA is negative, and the NAO fluctuates briefly negative and then pulls out, if there is a trough in the OV, that sudden lifting out of the westerly core might also effectively "strand" the OV trough and viola! Instant crawling bomb on the EC. That's more than less what the Euro is doing there.... As bad as the Euro has been this season, a blind folded dart thrower at a vertigo convention might do just as well at this kind of time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Love those thanks for mentioning me you know my fetish well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 My 20-35" call is going to bust, but I will go on record right now with a FINAL call of 10-20" more imby....no more ammending. The way the dailies change its hard to say right now if all of a sudden some cutoff gets your original done in one fell swoop. All winter every permutation broke our way, since early Feb it has not. If I hear Tipp ever say again the NAO state change is the only reason we had intense storms I will vomit more violently than Kev on the back of an Explorer. Those who wished the NAO away from its deep neg state really did not understand the difference between last year and this year. Even quick rises still resulted in a neg state and delivered the goods, now any permutation puts the screws in faster than you and Forky post conference ever did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The way the dailies change its hard to say right now if all of a sudden some cutoff gets your original done in one fell swoop. All winter every permutation broke our way, since early Feb it has not. If I hear Tipp ever say again the NAO state change is the only reason we had intense storms I will vomit more violently than Kev on the back of an Explorer. Those who wished the NAO away from its deep neg state really did not understand the difference between last year and this year. Even quick rises still resulted in a neg state and delivered the goods, now any permutation puts the screws in faster than you and Forky post conference ever did. Did you read 'freak's posts this morning about Windex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Just got crushed with a squall... visibility was measured in feet, not miles. Just over 1" down and the squall line should be pushing in shortly. Riding the gondola with Weir Lundstedt and Tim Kelley... all three of us weenies are having a blast watching this progress. Winds ramping up, sky just started pouring half dollar sized flakes again. Weir was worried about relative humidity in the boundary level but it looks like we are making out ok. Ive got Weir's 1993 WINDEX paper on my lap, Tim's got his phone out, Weirs looking at on his phone at lightning strikes east of Lake Ontario and loving the instability... good stuff. For you Ginxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 For you Ginxy Steve passed out with a stinger, after reading that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 For you Ginxy Keep reading I responded how he lives the good life and I am super jealous, imagine that, skiing in a windex with a man who invented the term. I also saw your post about Ice, no way I was going to WAWA yesterday sick or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 18z GFS is very interesting with the second low, but there is not much cold above the surface. That's a great storm position normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 More for Steve... Almost over 1" of new snow for the day here. Absolutely pouring snow right now and falling toward the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS is an absolute flesh peeler for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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