ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The weenie RSM model shows a huge squall line over SE MA later today. I remember it nailed the windex event last year on Jan 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Radar scene over the northeast is really neat! You can see the stratiform shield of light snow in central NY and also from southern VT through central NH and ME, all streaming SSE, ahead of the low level cold front. Meanwhile, over upstate NY we see more showery higher topped precip that is streaming eastward with the upper level flow. This is the stuff to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The weenie RSM model shows a huge squall line over SE MA later today. I remember it nailed the windex event last year on Jan 28th. I think we see a squall line move through all of New England this afternoon... WINDEX situation with brief 1/4sm vis with coating up to 1", localized 2" of fluffy snow for the higher terrain spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The weenie RSM model shows a huge squall line over SE MA later today. I remember it nailed the windex event last year on Jan 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Radar scene over the northeast is really neat! You can see the stratiform shield of light snow in central NY and also from southern VT through central NH and ME, all streaming SSE, ahead of the low level cold front. Meanwhile, over upstate NY we see more showery higher topped precip that is streaming eastward with the upper level flow. This is the stuff to keep an eye on. We got only about 5 minutes of very, very light snow which left nary a flake on the cars when I headed out of the house about 25 minutes later witth that first line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 nam must be running late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Radar scene over the northeast is really neat! You can see the stratiform shield of light snow in central NY and also from southern VT through central NH and ME, all streaming SSE, ahead of the low level cold front. Meanwhile, over upstate NY we see more showery higher topped precip that is streaming eastward with the upper level flow. This is the stuff to keep an eye on. Looks like the squall line with the front just entered NNY near MSS. What we want to see is a lot of that Lake Ontario moisture picked up and pulled NEward on the deep WSW flow ahead of the front. That should lead to some moisture pooling just upstream of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Euro looks good for mid month storm threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Should be an interesting day... we will be watching for WINDEX today. And interestingly enough, I'll be skiing with Weir Lundstedt who authored the WINDEX paper titled "A method to forecast wintertime instability and non-lake effect snow squalls across NNE" way back in 1993. Weir also wrote the book on Norlun trough instability as well... if you really are interested google Lundstedt and Norlun and WINDEX... fascinating stuff. Tim Kelley, Weir, and I have been arguing about the weekend storm... Tim thinks colder, Weir says heavy rainer. I like rain to snow. We all could win. But if I could say one more thing... it is that skiers love the weather. Or is it that meteorologists love skiing? Eitherway, Weir was Jim Cantore's roommate at Lyndon State and both of them are about as passionate skiers as you can get. Same goes for Tim. Here's the WINDEX and NORLUN man enjoying some powder in the Stowe woods a couple weeks ago: That is so awesome! You are living the dream. Full on winter, skiing every day, weenieing out with some of the major and minor weather deities... I hope you realize that not everyone gets to live that sort of life WINDEX's for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 BOX (4:40AM) seems to not favor the squalls... If this comes to fruition, score one for Barry Burbank mentioning it last Friday night DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF S NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS FROPA...AND THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROMOTES A LOT OF NEAR SFC DRYING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 We got only about 5 minutes of very, very light snow which left nary a flake on the cars when I headed out of the house about 25 minutes later witth that first line. Same here with that first band... didn't do much of anything but flurry. What we've seen since then has whitened the ground (up to half inch) at 1,500ft and nearing an inch at 3,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Large increase in low level LR with clearing behind the front combined with deep cold advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 That is so awesome! You are living the dream. Full on winter, skiing every day, weenieing out with some of the major and minor weather deities... I hope you realize that not everyone gets to live that sort of life I am not getting rich, but I'm having fun Anyway, good luck on the squalls, I think this over-performs for most (something instead of nothing). Time to go meet up with those guys. I'll see what Weir is thinking... Kelley and I were discussing T1 temp changes, old-school NGM FOUS, and low level lapse rates yesterday... Weir hurried up here yesterday afternoon cause he wanted to watch his WINDEX in action. Enjoy the flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Large increase in low level LR with clearing behind the front combined with deep cold advection Those are very accurate... we currently are seeing some steep lapse rates here with 6-7F change per 1,000ft of elevation up to the summit wx station at 4,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Euro looks good for mid month storm threat ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 ?? He was extrapolating it out to 350 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 He was extrapolating it out to 350 hours. Looks like a HECS to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Aligned well with the gradient in 3hr theta-e change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 ?? Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 nothing falling out of the echoes passing over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 nothing falling out of the echoes passing over me. We've had flurries for the last hour in Plymouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Nam must be transitioning to DST early....lol, Its going to blow in another week when all the model rums are 1 hr later again........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Nam must be transitioning to DST early....lol, Its going to blow in another week when all the model rums are 1 hr later again........... Ahhh ... late nights cuddled up with the 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 ?? He's delusional... There's a big white box truck with two burly dudes clad in white heading to his place right now for intervention - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Ahhh ... late nights dreaming about the 00z Euro fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Day 10 That's as bad as saying the grass is greening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 He's delusional... There's a big white box truck with two burly dudes clad in white heading to his place right now for intervention - haha As delusional as early spring coming this year right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 As delusional as early spring coming this year right? I don't know what THAT is refering to - you trying to pin some fellonious claim that I said something again? No no, I know exacty what you are thinking there and that thread/post said nothing of the sort. The question was posed whether it would be an early spring or not - nothing more. you do this a lot Kevin. Aside from the fact that losing accumulating snow over the last 2 to 3 weeks combined with a net loss in regional snow pack is a pretty strong argument for anyone sane that regardless of what the calendar says, the seasonal change is underway. Some rational types out there have accepted that reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 0F near Lake Nipissing now. Arctic air incoming soon. Front seems to be near SYR I guess. Same here with that first band... didn't do much of anything but flurry. What we've seen since then has whitened the ground (up to half inch) at 1,500ft and nearing an inch at 3,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The more significant storm on the 00z Euro regards that post I made that was ignored regarding how the 00z went toward the GFS's scenario of a 2ndary wave forming down the coast and clipping the area. Here is the MOS output from the Euro: SAT 12Z 05-MAR 2.3 -1.7 1030 91 87 0.02 566 542 SAT 18Z 05-MAR 7.8 0.4 1026 77 89 0.02 566 545 SUN 00Z 06-MAR 6.4 2.0 1024 90 88 0.03 567 547 SUN 06Z 06-MAR 6.9 3.4 1020 93 59 0.05 565 548 SUN 12Z 06-MAR 8.1 4.6 1017 93 90 0.03 564 550 SUN 18Z 06-MAR 9.7 5.6 1012 91 95 0.20 562 552 MON 00Z 07-MAR 9.0 6.9 1009 97 98 0.43 560 553 MON 06Z 07-MAR 4.6 4.3 1010 97 98 0.67 559 550 MON 12Z 07-MAR 0.9 2.4 1012 96 97 0.82 557 548 MON 18Z 07-MAR 0.0 -0.2 1011 94 96 0.86 553 544 TUE 00Z 08-MAR -1.4 -3.6 1013 86 94 0.30 548 537 TUE 06Z 08-MAR -4.1 -4.1 1021 76 53 0.09 549 532 Not sure if the formatting will be captured... but in this editor window this has flooding rain scenario of 2.25" liquid going over to a blue snow thump with 1.30" ~ falling from said 2ndary wave as the column is decidely and dynamically cooled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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