Next storm on the list, March 6-7

[weathafella]

Did we time warp ahead one year?

I suspect 2011-12 will be a very "un" snowy winter.

[Organizing Low]

I think I got stuck in that one.....slept under some rich guys porch...

[Ginx snewx]

I suspect 2011-12 will be a very "un" snowy winter.

Neutral Nina and all?

[powderfreak]

That's an awesome snowpack... no serious crusts and just lots of solid storm snow. The pack up here is now a bunch of frozen, dirty-ish looking snow, with another 18-20" of fresh white on top of that. Its definitely a March snowpack... used and abused but deep with a good top layer.

[weathafella]

Neutral Nina and all?

I'm expecting a refiring of this Nina and a positive NAO. Worse combination you can get.

[nzucker]

I remember the 1958 event. It was a good snow but very wet. Now the 1956 event was a much better blizzard for the area (I was in Bergen Cty..Teaneck). This winter (2011-12) is finishing like 1960-61. Epic storm after storm and then the rubber band snapped and poof...winter ended right after the 2/3-4,61 event.

Dobbs Ferry had about 12" from March 1958...there was another snowfall besides the big one on the 18-21st...

60-61 had the classic pattern reversal from brutal cold and snow to warmth after the 2/4/61 blizzard. That was a really classic winter though here, we had 10 days consecutive with lows in the single digits in late January 1961, not easy to do 7 miles from NYC, and then the 24" blizzard on 2/4 that brought snow depth around 35" in Westchester. Rubber band really did snap after that event though, believe there was one more moderate storm in March however. Still got to 90" with the three 18"+ events here.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm expecting a refiring of this Nina and a positive NAO. Worse combination you can get.

I don't think we'll have a raging +NAO next winter, but who knows for sure this far out. February 2011 was the first month to post a +NAO since September 2009. I don't think the +NAOs are all of the sudden going to become more dominant again.

[CoastalWx]

I'm expecting a refiring of this Nina and a positive NAO. Worse combination you can get.

I think Nina will be weak to neutral perhaps. Even with a +NAO, I think it will be ok, so long the se ridge doesn't fire up big time.

[Ginx snewx]

That's an awesome snowpack... no serious crusts and just lots of solid storm snow. The pack up here is now a bunch of frozen, dirty-ish looking snow, with another 18-20" of fresh white on top of that. Its definitely a March snowpack... used and abused but deep with a good top layer.

Dude man awesome storm for you guys. Got to hope Thursday somehow gets colder for you hefty QPF again

[weathafella]

Dobbs Ferry had about 12" from March 1958...there was another snowfall besides the big one on the 18-21st...

60-61 had the classic pattern reversal from brutal cold and snow to warmth after the 2/4/61 blizzard. That was a really classic winter though here, we had 10 days consecutive with lows in the single digits in late January 1961, not easy to do 7 miles from NYC, and then the 24" blizzard on 2/4 that brought snow depth around 35" in Westchester. Rubber band really did snap after that event though, believe there was one more moderate storm in March however. Still got to 90" with the three 18"+ events here.

I was in 8th grade during 1960-61. My 8th grade science project was a weather station. I made a barometer, thermometer, and hygrometer. Not sure how I pulled off the RH meter but the thermo was easy. My father was a pharmacist and had a store. He brought home a container of mercury....legal in those days. We bent a glass rod for the barometer. But how to grade the temperature? It was easy. The night before bringing it into school, the temperature at KNYC hit -2F. I rounded it to 0 and had the indoor temp at 70. Graded it in between. 2 days later, a fabulous blizzard but 2 days after it passed, already a progged cold snap was verifying 10F warmer. I knew then we were done.

[nzucker]

I'm expecting a refiring of this Nina and a positive NAO. Worse combination you can get.

We'll be OK as long as it doesn't get to moderate/strong again. That could happen though as the Pacific looks to be in a very cold ENSO configuration with strong trade winds, a pronounced Aleutian ridge/NW trough, and cold anomalies along the West Coast to the Baja. The Niña is still being fed with cold waters immediately along the Peruvian coast as well as below average SSTs in the Humboldt Current near Southern Chile. I think it's unlikely to die although some mets like Chuck disagree, and he's far more skilled than I.

A weak Niña would be great, however. Three of the snowiest winters for our area, 60-61, 66-67, and 95-96, were weak Niña/cold neutral. We also have the coldest global temperatures in a long time, AMSU Channel 5 now running well below 2008, so we should get some cold in Canada with a weak Niña and that factor.

[nzucker]

I was in 8th grade during 1960-61. My 8th grade science project was a weather station. I made a barometer, thermometer, and hygrometer. Not sure how I pulled off the RH meter but the thermo was easy. My father was a pharmacist and had a store. He brought home a container of mercury....legal in those days. We bent a glass rod for the barometer. But how to grade the temperature? It was easy. The night before bringing it into school, the temperature at KNYC hit -2F. I rounded it to 0 and had the indoor temp at 70. Graded it in between. 2 days later, a fabulous blizzard but 2 days after it passed, already a progged cold snap was verifying 10F warmer. I knew then we were done.

Wow, awesome story Jerry. 60-61 was bitter with that -2F reading before the storm and the long streak of below average temperatures in late January 1961. NYC really lost out in the January 1961 storm with only like 9" but had about 18.5" up here I think. I'm really jealous you can remember that winter. Do you know how much snowfall you had in NJ? I know Tamarack said his area in NNJ had over 100" in both 60-61 and 66-67 at like 700' elevation. Were you up high?

[Ginx snewx]

I think Nina will be weak to neutral perhaps. Even with a +NAO, I think it will be ok, so long the se ridge doesn't fire up big time.

I will keep a close eye on NAO this summer, if it returns NEg, good signs that it might average Neg again. Somehow I think Jerry might change his mind. Just seems an overall cold decadal regime is back.

[CoastalWx]

I will keep a close eye on NAO this summer, if it returns NEg, good signs that it might average Neg again. Somehow I think Jerry might change his mind. Just seems an overall cold decadal regime is back.

Nate could be right, in that it may be a multi-year Nina.

[weathafella]

Wow, awesome story Jerry. 60-61 was bitter with that -2F reading before the storm and the long streak of below average temperatures in late January 1961. NYC really lost out in the January 1961 storm with only like 9" but had about 18.5" up here I think. I'm really jealous you can remember that winter. Do you know how much snowfall you had in NJ? I know Tamarack said his area in NNJ had over 100" in both 60-61 and 66-67 at like 700' elevation. Were you up high?

Teaneck is not as elevated but I bet we had close to 85-95 inches. It was unreal. The 12/11-12,60 storm dumped 2 feet on us and we got about 15 inches during the JFK storm. But the 2/3-4 storm took the cake. I remember watching the huge flakes pile up before your very eyes. The December storm was the biggest since the 12/26/47 snow but it was only a 13 year difference and people still were alive who went through 1888 so that was the benchmark.

[CoastalWx]

I just wish we could have a decent March. March is one of those months that will painfully drag by, if we don't see much action. Nothing is worse than cold windy conditions with bare ground. Sure you get into the 50s, but whoopee.

March is also a time for the big dogs to come out and play, because storms become very moisture laden. It would be nice to get some of these famed storms, that we've been discussing.

[nzucker]

Nate could be right, in that it may be a multi-year Nina.

Almost all the years that transitioned from moderate/strong El Niño to moderate/strong La Niña were multi-year cold ENSO events...thinking of 73-74/74-75/75-76, 98-99/99-00/00-01, 07-08/08-09, at least looking at recent history. La Niña is inherently a more stable global state than El Niño due to the lack of ozone destruction, among other factors (don't really understand this), so it's hard to get rid of once the atmosphere wants to balance itself out.

[nzucker]

Teaneck is not as elevated but I bet we had close to 85-95 inches. It was unreal. The 12/11-12,60 storm dumped 2 feet on us and we got about 15 inches during the JFK storm. But the 2/3-4 storm took the cake. I remember watching the huge flakes pile up before your very eyes. The December storm was the biggest since the 12/26/47 snow but it was only a 13 year difference and people still were alive who went through 1888 so that was the benchmark.

Yeah we had 18" with the first two events in Southern Westchester and then 24" in Feb 61, great storms. No other winter has three 18"+ events here, that's just unheard of. I'm not even sure there are any with two LOL.

12/26/47 dumped 27" here...your area must have gotten screwed in March 1960 since here, the 60-61 weren't as big as the 32" that fell during that tempest. That was equal to Southern Westchester's total in the March 1888 blizzard, although who knows about measuring techniques at that juncture, may have been more.

[weathafella]

Yeah we had 18" with the first two events in Southern Westchester and then 24" in Feb 61, great storms. No other winter has three 18"+ events here, that's just unheard of. I'm not even sure there are any with two LOL.

12/26/47 dumped 27" here...your area must have gotten screwed in March 1960 since here, the 60-61 weren't as big as the 32" that fell during that tempest. That was equal to Southern Westchester's total in the March 1888 blizzard, although who knows about measuring techniques at that juncture, may have been more.

I think we must have had close to 16 in March of 1960. That was a bona fide blizzard in a sub par winter...opened a pattern for a year that was pretty amazing as you pointed out. Not to mention the Yankees acquiring Roger Maris before the 1960 season, losing in 7 games to the Pirates. I was in 8th grade yet I cried all the way home when Mazeroski hit it out to win the WS after the Yankees came back in the top of the 9th.

[nzucker]

I think we must have had close to 16 in March of 1960. That was a bona fide blizzard in a sub par winter...opened a pattern for a year that was pretty amazing as you pointed out. Not to mention the Yankees acquiring Roger Maris before the 1960 season, losing in 7 games to the Pirates. I was in 8th grade yet I cried all the way home when Mazeroski hit it out to win the WS after the Yankees came back in the top of the 9th.

I think December 1959 had one 8" storm here. Do you remember that, Jerry?

59-60 only finished with like 50" of snow in Dobbs Ferry despite the March 1960 storm dumping 30"...wasn't a very cold winter either, I don't believe, except March of course. March 1960 is a very famous month for record cold in the Apps/SE.

[Cold Miser]

Crap.

I'm going to assume that commuting to NYC on this line will be put on hold for a while?

[Ginx snewx]

Almost all the years that transitioned from moderate/strong El Niño to moderate/strong La Niña were multi-year cold ENSO events...thinking of 73-74/74-75/75-76, 98-99/99-00/00-01, 07-08/08-09, at least looking at recent history. La Niña is inherently a more stable global state than El Niño due to the lack of ozone destruction, among other factors (don't really understand this), so it's hard to get rid of once the atmosphere wants to balance itself out.

Very true but not a bad thing if we are on the good side of the NAO/AO mode. I am still thinking a pattern change is in the works starting third week of March, Spring is going to be just awful, elevations and NNE might be Epically wet and sometimes white.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah we had 18" with the first two events in Southern Westchester and then 24" in Feb 61, great storms. No other winter has three 18"+ events here, that's just unheard of. I'm not even sure there are any with two LOL.

12/26/47 dumped 27" here...your area must have gotten screwed in March 1960 since here, the 60-61 weren't as big as the 32" that fell during that tempest. That was equal to Southern Westchester's total in the March 1888 blizzard, although who knows about measuring techniques at that juncture, may have been more.

You got 32" in that March 1960 blizzard? Impressive. That storm also gave ACK 31" of snow, if you can believe that..lol.

[weathafella]

I think December 1959 had one 8" storm here. Do you remember that, Jerry?

59-60 only finished with like 50" of snow in Dobbs Ferry despite the March 1960 storm dumping 30"...wasn't a very cold winter either, I don't believe, except March of course. March 1960 is a very famous month for record cold in the Apps/SE.

The only thing I remember about the 1959-60 winter is the fact that it was a lousy snow winter until March...and the evolution of the pattern to the March blizzard. I recall a rainer with fropa late in the PM and classic post frontal cumulus with dropping temps. The forecast was cold but the next day had highs solidly 10+ subnormal and all of a sudden the possibility of snow Friday. Friday morning dawns with temps in the 20s and overcast. Snow begins at 7am and it's the kind that blows across the road...dry snow. 9AM in school it's snowing very hard. We get out of school early amid chaos.

[nzucker]

You got 32" in that March 1960 blizzard? Impressive. That storm also gave ACK 31" of snow, if you can believe that..lol.

I think Dobbs Ferry/Ardsley co-op reported 28" or so and White Plains had 32". I assume I was on the higher end given I am at nearly 400' unlike the downtown co-op, but obviously it's a long time ago. I wonder how measurement techniques were back then and if it could have been even slightly more with the 6-hour method. It was a huge storm here, Scott, just unreal...March 1960 had a massive gradient between NYC and Westchester, way more in the suburbs. It was the biggest storm since the 1888 blizzard for Westchester, and nothing has beaten it since despite epic storms like Jan 1996 and the 2/25 Snowicane that dropped 25-30" in higher areas of the County. I thought I might push March 1960 totals last year when I was home on 2/25 but didn't quite get there.

Yes, I do believe that...the storm was slow moving with a great NAO blocking pattern, would have been great on the Cape. Very classic pattern...

[ORH_wxman]

You got 32" in that March 1960 blizzard? Impressive. That storm also gave ACK 31" of snow, if you can believe that..lol.

I think it was 27"...maybe 32" on the month?

Highest total in the Kocin book in that area is 27".

[nzucker]

I think it was 27"...maybe 32" on the month?

Highest total in the Kocin book in that area is 27".

I thought White Plains got 32"?

It's hard to know around here though since there's such elevation discrepancies and discrepancies with stations close to the warm Hudson River. For example, downtown Dobbs Ferry probably had like 19-20" with the 2/25 Snowicane last year but my house had 26"...I know March 1960 was a relatively cold storm but there may have been some marginal events that winter, too. It's quite amazing how differently events play out at 425' in the nature preserve from 100' on the Hudson in the paved downtown that's so busy with traffic. I always wondered why I seemed to be averaging more than the town's 36"/year but I found out the elevation here is 350' which definitely explains some of the difference.

[CoastalWx]

I think Dobbs Ferry/Ardsley co-op reported 28" or so and White Plains had 32". I assume I was on the higher end given I am at nearly 400' unlike the downtown co-op, but obviously it's a long time ago. I wonder how measurement techniques were back then and if it could have been even slightly more with the 6-hour method. It was a huge storm here, Scott, just unreal...March 1960 had a massive gradient between NYC and Westchester, way more in the suburbs. It was the biggest storm since the 1888 blizzard for Westchester, and nothing has beaten it since despite epic storms like Jan 1996 and the 2/25 Snowicane that dropped 25-30" in higher areas of the County. I thought I might push March 1960 totals last year when I was home on 2/25 but didn't quite get there.

Yes, I do believe that...the storm was slow moving with a great NAO blocking pattern, would have been great on the Cape. Very classic pattern...

That gradient was probably from some sort of banding..maybe deformation banding perhaps. It looks like any dryslot would have been south based on the mid level features, but maybe NYC dryslotted briefly? The obs would tell it.

[CoastalWx]

I thought White Plains got 32"?

It's hard to know around here though since there's such elevation discrepancies and discrepancies with stations close to the warm Hudson River. For example, downtown Dobbs Ferry probably had like 19-20" with the 2/25 Snowicane last year but my house had 26"...I know March 1960 was a relatively cold storm but there may have been some marginal events that winter, too. It's quite amazing how differently events play out at 425' in the nature preserve from 100' on the Hudson in the paved downtown that's so busy with traffic.

Not a big difference either way...that's one hell of a storm. If it were a cold storm, I would think elevation probably didn't play too much of a difference.

[ORH_wxman]

I thought White Plains got 32"?

No, they had 20" on the nose it looks like. The 27" total is actually much higher than any total around it, so I don't think anyone got 30". Mostly 17-20" totals in all the surrounding coops.