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Next storm on the list, March 6-7


Typhoon Tip

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If you can get a steady replenishment of lower dewpoints, then it could get pretty bad...the December 2008 ice storm here happened mostly in the 30-31F temp range but we had steady advection of lower dewpoints to offset the latent heat release with evap cooling.

There's plenty of lower dews to the north, so it will definitely have to be watched. The Dec '08 storm also had very heavy precip rates too. They weren't enough to prevent massive ice.

Thanks, Will--that was not what I was hoping to hear. I guess the lower dews are further away than I was looking.

But at least the stove's cranking.

33.4/32

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Def don't see snow happening with this big qpf burst.....snow line seems to have been backing a bit west (over in the alb area) and NW near rutland last few hours.

as far as icing goes ...i wonder if the coldest nose is around 1K or lower or higher ?

some spots in NW CT are 31-32 now on meso site. prolly also over extreme western areas of mass.

also some 31-32 SEast of poughipsee showing up.

Already down in the mid 30s in NNJ so plenty of cold air moving in behind the front. Ridiculous temp contrast across the Hudson, still 54/54 with +RN here...

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People are starting to report some pretty good icing such as this in the immediate CD:

"It is difficult to estimate the ice accretion here in Cohoes. The ice accretion is fairly moderate with the trees bending over quite a bit and the wind gusting to what I estimate at least 20 MPH (anemometer frozen). I've not witnessed this much ice accretion since the major ice storm several years ago. This seems to be a potentially dangerous situation"

30 where he is....

Best snow growth is west of here ...Cooperstown and parts of Schoharie County already at 6 inches.

Def don't see snow happening with this big qpf burst.....snow line seems to have been backing a bit west (over in the alb area) and NW near rutland last few hours.

as far as icing goes ...i wonder if the coldest nose is around 1K or lower or higher ?

some spots in NW CT are 31-32 now on meso site. prolly also over extreme western areas of mass.

also some 31-32 SEast of poughipsee showing up.

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Central/Eastern PA has towns approaching 7" now with still several hours of snow to go. 3-5" was predicted after the rain there...nice little bust out there.

Western PA only get 1-2" when they were orignally forecasted to get the advisory amounts, everything moved east.

Heaviest amounts are going to be along the I-88 corridor in central NY through Central VT and into Quebec's Eastern Townships...some areas will approach 2'. Awesome storm to watch unfold despite what's happening herethumbsdownsmileyanim.gif

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If you can get a steady replenishment of lower dewpoints, then it could get pretty bad...the December 2008 ice storm here happened mostly in the 30-31F temp range but we had steady advection of lower dewpoints to offset the latent heat release with evap cooling.

There's plenty of lower dews to the north, so it will definitely have to be watched. The Dec '08 storm also had very heavy precip rates too. They weren't enough to prevent massive ice.

and along those lines ....any areas look to be a higher shot of bad icing as of current thinking and seeing the way this is unfolding

heavy precip has moved steadily NNE thru NJ and it looks like there is a bit of a dry slot already from ABE-PNE.....with a 2'nd shot behind that with whatever energy hanging back

so it woud appear to me at least that the monads and CNH may have a much bigger shot at ice as there are obs in the monads down around 32.5 or so already with more time to fall ....and more time to heavy precip shuts off.

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The intellicast winter wx radar is off a little... Look at that radar and I am located between the A for ALB and the X for ENX... It has me barely into pink, but it is all very nice snow now. 29.8F. But it does a pretty remarkable job overall I think.

and along those lines ....any areas look to be a higher shot of bad icing as of current thinking and seeing the way this is unfolding

heavy precip has moved steadily NNE thru NJ and it looks like there is a bit of a dry slot already from ABE-PNE.....with a 2'nd shot behind that with whatever energy hanging back

so it woud appear to me at least that the monads and CNH may have a much bigger shot at ice as there are obs in the monads down around 32.5 or so already with more time to fall ....and more time to heavy precip shuts off.

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34.7 and heavy, drenching rain here. Absolutely horrible! :gun_bandana: I thought March was supposed to be a month of blue snow bombs and general fun here in SNE, or at least the first half of it anyway. Whatever happened to some of those good Marches in the past? I tend to be in denial about the seasons changing until at least March 15th-20th.

Anyway, I think we slowly tick toward freezing by midnight around here and transition to ZR. Maybe a little sleet or snow early tomorrow morning before precip ends, but probably less than an inch as it probably won't happen until the low passes our longitude.

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how much are you up to there?

i was strategically in ottawa for the changeover and we picked up 7 inches after an inch of rain with fresh drifts to 2 feet, one of the best changeovers ive ever been a part of with falling temps and instant rainwater freeze and strong N winds.....one hour before the snow started it was raining and snow eating fog and i was very concerned its was going to be a bust when i saw the fog thicken.

today when i left, midwinter snowbanks with huge chunks of ice in them from the frozen rain in the bottom layer.

across the montreal metro, anywhere from 2-6 inches of snow from N to S after nearly 1.5 inches of rain.

i'm back here now, and its just overcast.....hopefully 3 or 4 more inches tonight/tomororw from the coastal NW edge. its going to be close though.

eastern townships should pick up a couple feet down in sherbrooke. your relatives should get pounded.:snowman:

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34.7 and heavy, drenching rain here. Absolutely horrible! :gun_bandana: I thought March was supposed to be a month of blue snow bombs and general fun here in SNE, or at least the first half of it anyway. Whatever happened to some of those good Marches in the past? I tend to be in denial about the seasons changing until at least March 15th-20th.

Anyway, I think we slowly tick toward freezing by midnight around here and transition to ZR. Maybe a little sleet or snow early tomorrow morning before precip ends, but probably less than an inch as it probably won't happen until the low passes our longitude.

March has sucked recently...hopefully we cash in later in the month. You might see a couple inches tomorrow AM. I'll just be happy to see some scenic glaze tomorrow morning...we missed this one by a hundred miles. (you missed it by less than half that)

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