moneypitmike Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 It's not going to be a very gradual cool down. The warm sector is running warmer than guidance and the cold sector is running a bit colder. The key will be the timing of the sfc fropa. The front just went through Whitling, VT (about halfway up the state along the NY border in the Champlain Vly). Take a look at this temp drop over 20 or so minutes. http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KVTWHITI1 That's impressive. i guess I should be focused more on timing based on that. What's a good site to follow the progression of the front? Temp ticked back to 45.6/45 with light rain continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Temps are falling quickly here now... I'm down in town (not up at the ski area) and it was 38F when I got home 45 min ago, and now its 32.5F If it follows the pattern of what I saw in the Champlain Valley early this morning, we should go to a period of ZR, then sleet, then snow as the cold air deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Hopefully yesterday's melt has allowed the storm drains to clear, otherwise lots of street flooding tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 That's impressive. i guess I should be focused more on timing based on that. What's a good site to follow the progression of the front? Temp ticked back to 45.6/45 with light rain continuing. Well it will probably look more impressive in the Champlain Valley since the cold can easily drain southward between the higher elevations on those N winds.I've been using Scott's mesomap site...kinda like how you guys use Paul/Milford's. http://weirsonline.com/mesomap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The fact that we're seeing 15F plunges from the mid-upper 40s to low 30s in an hour or less from central NY through northern/central VT makes me think ice is a very real concern just behind the front over western MA and central NH. It's not going to be a very gradual cool down. The warm sector is running warmer than guidance and the cold sector is running a bit colder. The key will be the timing of the sfc fropa. The front just went through Whitling, VT (about halfway up the state along the NY border in the Champlain Vly). Take a look at this temp drop over 20 or so minutes. http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KVTWHITI1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Well it will probably look more impressive in the Champlain Valley since the cold can easily drain southward between the higher elevations on those N winds. I've been using Scott's mesomap site...kinda like how you guys use Paul/Milford's. http://weirsonline.com/mesomap Thanks--wonder why mine doesn't show up on it. Looks like about 2 counties or so away from me. Must be a slow progression. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 i have never seen a nam clown map with such a TIGHT gradient (mile wise) from 20" snow + to <2" snow. literally like 15 miles wide from NY/VT border thru far interior maine. huge busts coming huge huge busts http://www.nohrsc.no...egion=Northeast snowpack looks about ripe now in MRG land looks like the area from beckett, ma over to chesterfield could see quite the melt. unless somehow the cold air drains down west of the CT river valley in mass first. snow pack temps seems a bit less ripe from Peru points N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Wow...60F/48F at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Thanks--wonder why mine doesn't show up on it. Looks like about 2 counties or so away from me. Must be a slow progression. lol On those mesomaps you have to enter in specific sites and then it will plot other stations in a radius around them. I think there is a limit to the number that you can plot though...I want to say it is 200. So on a large map like that some get omitted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Wow...60F/48F at BOS. Yeah they've had some clearing. It's cloudy up here in Andover, but 58F. At least the kids can be outdoors and play in the mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 i have never seen a nam clown map with such a TIGHT gradient (mile wise) from 20" snow + to <2" snow. literally like 15 miles wide from NY/VT border thru far interior maine. huge busts coming huge huge busts http://www.nohrsc.no...egion=Northeast snowpack looks about ripe now in MRG land looks like the area from beckett, ma over to chesterfield could see quite the melt. unless somehow the cold air drains down west of the CT river valley in mass first. snow pack temps seems a bit less ripe from Peru points N and W Doesn't it have to? The colds coming in from the W/NW........ 46.0/45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The GFS is now much wetter over Kevin's area than yesterday. Maybe Kevin gets his wish of washing the snow away after all. Well on it's way to being gone. Looks to be about 10 inches left..Even Will's will be gone.. This is just like 1996 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Well on it's way to being gone. Looks to be about 10 inches left..Even Will's will be gone.. This is just like 1996 AWT I'll tell you what, though, the rain that's come through has thoroughly washed the cars. They looked a little dirty after the last 3 months of no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Well on it's way to being gone. Looks to be about 10 inches left..Even Will's will be gone.. This is just like 1996 AWT GFS didn't have nearly the rain is gives you now. If I saw that yesterday, I would have had second thoughts. Still a good snowcover up here near the NH border. We'll see how it goes, but I still think you'll have some left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The cold front is within a few miles of me based upon locals obs.... Snow as close as Utica ...60 miles away. That's impressive. i guess I should be focused more on timing based on that. What's a good site to follow the progression of the front? Temp ticked back to 45.6/45 with light rain continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The GFS really wants to unleash the flooding next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The cold front is within a few miles of me based upon locals obs.... Snow as close as Utica ...60 miles away. Good stuff. The cold is struggling getting over the hills in VT. I don't see why it will be different down here. West slopes ftw I think (unless jconsor's posts with the HRRR comes through). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 In terms of the ALB area and the western Berks slopes. Watch for the arctic air to siphon down the Champlain/Lake George/Upper Hudson corridor. This could allow low level cold to beat the cold air aloft - = ice for awhile.... GFL hasn't plunged yet, but should in another hour or so. The fact that we're seeing 15F plunges from the mid-upper 40s to low 30s in an hour or less from central NY through northern/central VT makes me think ice is a very real concern just behind the front over western MA and central NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The GFS really wants to unleash the flooding next week. Isn't that what it's doing today? Won't the snow be largely gone by then except in NY/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Doesn't it have to? The colds coming in from the W/NW........ 46.0/45 LOL well mike i should have put "FIRST" In all caps. i.e unless the cold air makes it further east ala the hrrr model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 it will be but rivers will already be running high. Isn't that what it's doing today? Won't the snow be largely gone by then except in NY/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Thursday/Frday still looks do-able as a wet snow event here ..low redeveloping on the Virginia Capes.... The high isn't perfect, but sits in a much better position than what we had to deal with ahead of this event. The GFS really wants to unleash the flooding next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yeah they've had some clearing. It's cloudy up here in Andover, but 58F. At least the kids can be outdoors and play in the mud. Pushing mid 60s in cweat land. Maybe he'll get a sunburn liming the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 49.5 rain fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 We have achieved FROPA...... Down from 47 to 43 ..... and now 40 49.5 rain fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 looks like your going to get it good out there We have achieved FROPA...... Down from 47 to 43 ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Pushing mid 60s in cweat land. Maybe he'll get a sunburn liming the lawn. He's probably got winger cranked and sipping a Mai Tai as he rides around, mowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 We have achieved FROPA...... Down from 47 to 43 ..... and now 40 I think your area is ground zero. 12-16 and probably power outages. Enjoy. I'm jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Thursday/Frday still looks do-able as a wet snow event here ..low redeveloping on the Virginia Capes.... The high isn't perfect, but sits in a much better position than what we had to deal with ahead of this event. Yeah not far off, and actually gives GC a few inches of snow at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I think your area is ground zero. 12-16 and probably power outages. Enjoy. I'm jealous Maybe a quick couple of inches for you in the GFS, later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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