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Next storm on the list, March 6-7

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

You'd better be leaving soon..otherwise you won't make it

Nah, leaving after dinner. 6,000lb truck with studded snows FTW. I always drive up in the teeth of the storm. Slow and steady. Crashing at my friends place near the mountain. 90% of the ride is interstate driving and they do a good job keeping it clean. I love driving in the snow.

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gravitylover

gravitylover

Posted
Posted

Nah, leaving after dinner. 6,000lb truck with studded snows FTW. I always drive up in the teeth of the storm. Slow and steady. Crashing at my friends place near the mountain. 90% of the ride is interstate driving and they do a good job keeping it clean. I love driving in the snow.

Me too, drive up through the storm so the road is empty and there are fewer people around doing dumb sh*t. Hey, don't post any pics if it's really good :whistle:

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

It's looking possible the cold may get farther east and south than any models had..Usually the cold is slow to crash south and east..today it's having no problems

I haven't really looked at much data since yesterday afternoon, but at that time, I thought the NAM was way too far NW. I figured the steady rain would make it here by late afternoon/early evening, not mid-morning. It will be interesting to see what happens!

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

It's looking possible the cold may get farther east and south than any models had..Usually the cold is slow to crash south and east..today it's having no problems

i think looking at the intellicast radar that NNE including N NH NW maine has best shot with that big cold high to their NW.

But look at the trouble places in W or C PA are having shifting that mixed line east as the LP comes up from the south.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

you are pete and that is good news. one thing to be a bit weary of is the snow pack temp. for the last 24 hours your snow pack is probably ripening and then if that is the case ...high dp's and 2 inches of water could be legit reason for not only rapid snowpack loss but flooding. big big flooding with all the W.E in the pack.

ANYONE have a good site for up to date snowpack temps in the name of seriousness lol not trolling.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Pouring heavy drenching rain at 47.8 degrees this morning. Snow pack is getting eaten alive every minute. I'm intrigued my the colder shift in the models and the faster progression of the cold front SE is interesting for this area. Albany WFO now has us under a WWA for tonight. I could see the front barely making it through the west slope and then halting somewhere around the crest as the second wave rides up it.

This could mean a hefty sleet and freezing rain situation for PSF at 30 degrees, while CEF is pouring rain and 50. ALB could very well be a snow bomb tonight. Very fine line in terms of precip type - all dependent on where the front gets to before the second wave rides along it. Maybe my colder forecast from Friday on the other thread will at least partially verify.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

Pouring heavy drenching rain at 47.8 degrees this morning. Snow pack is getting eaten alive every minute. I'm intrigued my the colder shift in the models and the faster progression of the cold front SE is interesting for this area. Albany WFO now has us under a WWA for tonight. I could see the front barely making it through the west slope and then halting somewhere around the crest as the second wave rides up it.

This could mean a hefty sleet and freezing rain situation for PSF at 30 degrees, while CEF is pouring rain and 50. ALB could very well be a snow bomb tonight. Very fine line in terms of precip type - all dependent on where the front gets to before the second wave rides along it. Maybe my colder forecast from Friday on the other thread will at least partially verify.

thanks great post.

look at this ob. from middlebury Vt (west slope greens for the win) bleeding down west slope of berks later? 48 at 9:51 and 34.7 at 10:17 WOWWW

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KVTMIDDL2

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Pouring heavy drenching rain at 47.8 degrees this morning. Snow pack is getting eaten alive every minute. I'm intrigued my the colder shift in the models and the faster progression of the cold front SE is interesting for this area. Albany WFO now has us under a WWA for tonight. I could see the front barely making it through the west slope and then halting somewhere around the crest as the second wave rides up it.

This could mean a hefty sleet and freezing rain situation for PSF at 30 degrees, while CEF is pouring rain and 50. ALB could very well be a snow bomb tonight. Very fine line in terms of precip type - all dependent on where the front gets to before the second wave rides along it. Maybe my colder forecast from Friday on the other thread will at least partially verify.

That sounds of that stalling on the crest would mean I'll be on the wrong side of that stall. C'est la vie if that's the case.

You're right aobut the beat-down. Driveway is almost clear at this point. Just patches of ice remaining on the roads. Just a few roofs are still snow-covered. Undoubtedly well-insulated ones.

Torchy fog continues, 45.5/44.

Light rain here. .06 so far.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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So far the system has been behaving rather nicely. Models began converging on this type of scenario (more than less) 4 days ago really, and have stuck with it.

Looking at the rad history/current one must wonder if the NAM is too sparse with QPF throughout the region. TAN just went with a flood watch for the area. Permafrost has not yet let go and with high water content snow pack in the 500-1000' els remaining, 50DP moderate to heavy strata rains with embedded convective-like elements combined will probably maximize run-off. Just a massively moist system on the door-step.

I am actually a little encouraged for some thunder excitement to recoup the event (for those needing the drama). From a purely Meteorological perspective this is a fascinating system... Not too often you get a +4SD snowfall anomaly in March...and we have all this gradient in the area, too - heh, par for the La-Nina course. Anyway, regional Lifted Index goes to -2 at BOS, which is pretty impressive for March 7! Probably I will fire up BUFKIT and check out the other indices... Just from experience TT's index is probably nearing 50 with all this dynamic lift with jets combined with crashing heights working over top of a WCB. It will be interesting how this manifests its self, whether it is globular clusters of lightning producers amid generalized rain, or if there is a ribbon echo squall of sorts.

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jconsor

jconsor

Posted
Posted

HRRR has been handling the fast advance of low-level cold air into upstate NY and PA better than the NAM and GFS. It has ZR over far NW Worcester County by 10PM tonight. (The red shading indicates freezing rain). It actually has a fairly widespread ice storm from the southeastern third of ME into central NH, western MA, through the Capital District and mid Hudson Valley of NY into NW NJ.

One caveat, however. The HRRR is running much too cold over CNE currently. It has parts of western MA and much of NH still in the 30s to low 40s currently, while it's well into the 40s to low 50s in much of that area.

post-88-0-52906100-1299425956.png

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

The GFS is now much wetter over Kevin's area than yesterday. Maybe Kevin gets his wish of washing the snow away after all.

i think kev is having an epic battle between thinking all snow is gone....or holding on to a sliver of hope......which now hangs by two threads thanks to the HRR map jconser posted.....which appears to be out to lunch if it has CNE W MA near 40 but ????

i would hope it could verify and give WA wa chusett more time to have good skiing.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

HRRR has been handling the fast advance of low-level cold air into upstate NY and PA better than the NAM and GFS. It has ZR over far NW Worcester County by 10PM tonight. (The red shading indicates freezing rain). It actually has a fairly widespread ice storm from the southeastern third of ME into central NH, western MA, through the Capital District and mid Hudson Valley of NY into NW NJ.

One caveat, however. The HRRR is running much too cold over CNE currently. It has parts of western MA and much of NH still in the 30s to low 40s currently, while it's well into the 40s to low 50s in much of that area.

Interesting post. I really don't want an ice storm because I'm not digging out my generator. lol

Wrt to your observation that the HRRR temps running are way warm, here in western MA it is a torch. 45.7/45. If I were in the 30's like it's saying, I'd be hoping I might get some snow.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Interesting post. I really don't want an ice storm because I'm not digging out my generator. lol

Wrt to your observation that the HRRR temps running are way warm, here in western MA it is a torch. 45.7/45. If I were in the 30's like it's saying, I'd be hoping I might get some snow.

It's not going to be a very gradual cool down. The warm sector is running warmer than guidance and the cold sector is running a bit colder. The key will be the timing of the sfc fropa.

The front just went through Whitling, VT (about halfway up the state along the NY border in the Champlain Vly). Take a look at this temp drop over 20 or so minutes.

http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KVTWHITI1

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sankaty

sankaty

Posted
Posted

We've had continuous snow cover around the house until yesterday. Now that patches are starting to appear, expect it to fade fast.

Can't believe it held on this long with only 7" snow in Feb. here. The shadier backyard still has full coverage, but that won't last much longer.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

It's not going to be a very gradual cool down. The warm sector is running warmer than guidance and the cold sector is running a bit colder. The key will be the timing of the sfc fropa.

The front just went through Whitling, VT (about halfway up the state along the NY border in the Champlain Vly). Take a look at this temp drop over 20 or so minutes.

http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KVTWHITI1

lol ... like falling off a cliff.

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