Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Man, this might be one of the few times I wish I was back in Ithaca for a storm. It should be fun watching the obs in the cold sector of the storm...someone might be completely smoked with a blue snow bomb. pelting rain here all day, a cold miserable day areas just north of me by 50 miles are picking up 12-18 inches today. expect rain to flip to snow overnight, and will wait to see how much we get. big differences on the models obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 my dad just left to go to my grandfathers in baldwin mills quebec its about 10 miles over the vermont boarder must be nice to be him lol elevation 1800 feet i think he will be in a good spot should be about 10-16 there i imagine once the rain flips to snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I hope Vim Toot is home to take pictures of the carnage post-storm. His snowmobiles will look like small bumps in the vast fields of snow across his property. Wonder how much snow pack he currently has. Also hard to remember when we felt bad because he missed just about every storm that was crushing SNE in Jauary Your pity sustained me then. I, a lowly and snowless pauper, read the rubes the riot act for having the gall to be stealing my snow. And what did I get for my rude outburst? Pity. Whaddayou think I am, a democrat? I dont want pity! Now, had you SNE weenies truly felt badly for poor Vim Toot! you would have sent money. Not that it's too late to do so now, of course. Feel free to send me money in lieu of pity next time I get the short end of the Blizzy stick. Pity don't fill my piehole. Moohlah does. Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 LOL, it's cool. I think it's funny, although, I sometimes wonder if you guys really think I'm a total freak just because I have long hair. The fact of the matter is I'm actually quite conservative. I know you guys are all secretly jealous of the snow and good clean living we enjoy here in GC. I feel sorry for you urban dwellers, what with all the crime and pollution you endure. Like. Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 21z srefs come in a tick colder than 15z but basically keeps the 0c 850 right smack dab over Lyndonville/St. J, VT...tough forecast for ne VT and N NH to say the least...confident we see 1.5" qpf with sub freezing BL temps, but the 850s could be the difference between 5" sleet and .5" ice, or 15" of snow and sleet.... Edit: 0z NAM a tick colder than the 21z srefs...much colder than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 49/46, melting snow. Good thing its March 5th and I don't care other then wishing that ski areas could hold on for longer. 00z nam has 3" of rain for Pete while Bob gets a few rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 0Z NAM solidly puts VT in the game. Shifts everything east. Big snow NW New England. 0Z GFS will be very interesting for those of us in Northern GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 How did I know the NAM would shift east? Looks pretty good here now. 0Z NAM solidly puts VT in the game. Shifts everything east. Big snow NW New England. 0Z GFS will be very interesting for those of us in Northern GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 How did I know the NAM would shift east? Looks pretty good here now. Only took it to get inside of 48 before it caved, The NAM sucks, GFS may have scored a coup on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Only took it to get inside of 48 before it caved, The NAM sucks, GFS may have scored a coup on this storm Well if the GFS was a winner, the NAM would be showing an ice storm here. It had that solution yesterday. NAM has been coming SE and GFS went NW from yesterday. Its probably going to be a compromise in which anyone who was just out of the frozen on the NAM will claim a GFS victory and anyone who was barely in the frozen on the GFS previously will claim a NAM victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Well if the GFS was a winner, the NAM would be showing an ice storm here. It had that solution yesterday. NAM has been coming SE and GFS went NW from yesterday. Its probably going to be a compromise in which anyone who was just out of the frozen on the NAM will claim a GFS victory and anyone who was barely in the frozen on the GFS previously will claim a NAM victory. Yeah, I think the NAM will make another move east at 6z, Its not going to matter for here either way unless the GFS and the Euro make a pretty big move back SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 How did I know the NAM would shift east? Looks pretty good here now. Congrats, Rick! methinks BOX may bring up some flooding advisories in the western zones. That's a lot of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 what a sad regional forum. We have a major juiced system on satellite and radar, and the 00z GFS just rolled out. There's 24 people online and the last post was 37 minutes ago. GFS starting to give more emphasis to the southern stream, which is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Honestly, snow or no snow, we have a major flooding threat too. And certainly an ice threat for central to northern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Honestly, snow or no snow, we have a major flooding threat too. And certainly an ice threat for central to northern New England whats your take on NNE/CNE, Sam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 what a sad regional forum. We have a major juiced system on satellite and radar, and the 00z GFS just rolled out. There's 24 people online and the last post was 37 minutes ago. GFS starting to give more emphasis to the southern stream, which is important Its not a very interesting event at all for SNE...there's not much reason for most of the posters here to be invested in this storm. The NNE contingent should definitely follow it, but they are a much smaller percentage of the posters in the forum. I'll be interested in the obs up north tomorrow and at my old stomping grounds in Ithaca NY because its a pretty cool dynamic system, but I don't blame most posters for not tracking a rainstorm at 11pm on a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 whats your take on NNE/CNE, Sam? High threat for >.25" of ice north of a line from VSF to IZG, and significant snowfall 8-16" for the mountains of far northern NH, and 16-24" for much of northern VT and upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 High threat for >.25" of ice north of a line from VSF to IZG, and significant snowfall 8-16" for the mountains of far northern NH, and 16-24" for much of northern VT and upstate NY So whats your call for the NEK of VT. Pardon me asking, but there's no analysis going on at all so I wanted to ask. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Its not a very interesting event at all for SNE...there's not much reason for most of the posters here to be invested in this storm. The NNE contingent should definitely follow it, but they are a much smaller percentage of the posters in the forum. I'll be interested in the obs up north tomorrow and at my old stomping grounds in Ithaca NY because its a pretty cool dynamic system, but I don't blame most posters for not tracking a rainstorm at 11pm on a weekend. I guess, but still a solid 1-2" of rain is nothing to thumb your nose at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I guess, but still a solid 1-2" of rain is nothing to thumb your nose at I havent seen model run threads light up too much for a 1-2 inch rain event. If you can get it to a 3-5" rain event, then activity would become quite a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 what a sad regional forum. We have a major juiced system on satellite and radar, and the 00z GFS just rolled out. There's 24 people online and the last post was 37 minutes ago. GFS starting to give more emphasis to the southern stream, which is important I was out for a rare dinner with just the wife and a party afterwards. Now I'm buzzed and going to bed. Wish I could follow more Enjoy the winter wx Sucks down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 So whats your call for the NEK of VT. Pardon me asking, but there's no analysis going on at all so I wanted to ask. Thanks. Rain changing to snow between noon and 4pm tomorrow, with rates of 1-2 in/hr 10pm through 3am. Light snow sticks around through early afternoon Monday. Totals around 8-16" southern half of the NEK and 14-20" northern half of NEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Rain changing to snow between noon and 4pm tomorrow, with rates of 1-2 in/hr 10pm through 3am. Light snow sticks around through early afternoon Monday. Totals around 8-16" southern half of the NEK and 14-20" northern half of NEK Ok yeah I'm at LSC and im thinking 10-15" here...would consider us north or south in the NEK lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just pushed out 04Z SmartModel output. Looking at some impressive snowfall rates per hour across the VT to NH areas. Rates of 1.1 to 1.3" for several hours is a strong possiblity. Some 24 hour snowfall accumulations show that areas in Vermont and NH could see around 6-9" in the first 24 hours, with additional snow the following 24 hours. Seeing Burlington and Caribou with the highest total for 48-60 hours with at face value on my model showing 20"+, but I think more likely in the 15" range. I have attached city specfic snowfall potential. Thoughts. http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Apparently, BOX has posted a flood watch to SNH and western MA (excluding Hamden Cnty) and has throwin in N ORH as well. Thick fog, .02" from the event thus far. 42.3/41 EDIT: Just saw that the watch is up region-wide. It was mentioned in the HWO before it was posted. But, the areas mentioned above have their own HWO this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 just curious as to what ha ppened overnight to cause the P/C forecast for Jay Peak to change from 10-20"+ to 4-8 inches? Was thinking of going to LSC tonight and skiing Jay tomorrow, but not for 4-8 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Man the GFS would be a hydro disaster next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Man the GFS would be a hydro disaster next week. Ginx on DEFCON 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Ginx on DEFCON 4 He's on the HAM right now, calling everyone in sw RI to fill sandbags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Lost a few more inches of snow overnight by the looks of things ...strong south winds and fog blowing across the remaining snow this morning. No way there's any snow left tomorrow morning at this time. Not with 24 more hrs of this and 2-3 inches of rain. Should have made the bet with Scooter and Phil on this one instead of the last torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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