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Next storm on the list, March 6-7


Typhoon Tip

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Another awesome day of skiing as Winter rolls on. Too bad about this latest system down here but thankfully it looks like MRG will score big. Let me guess, Kevin is saying There will be no snow left anywhere in SNE.lol It'll take more than this storm to erase it here. Still, it would have been nice if this had been a blue bomber here but there is no reason to think more snow won't fall during the '10-'11 season. A couple months of Spring skiing ahead. Life is good.

At least BOX doesn't seem to be spouting about floods even though we appear to be closest to the monsoon.

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As you head into latter March and April its kind of funny how it works with snow events...the NAO and such will still correlate pretty well with temps but not necessarily for snow storms because rotted out NE Canada airmass might just give us a 40F rainstorm which is below avg but not a snow event....where as we'll want more interaction from the northern jet from the NW to entrain cold air into those systems for better shots at snow.

Good point.

I also start to pay attention more to the 950-850 layer, if there is any potential to snow. 2M temps may fail. You can have maybe -5C 850 temps and it may be in the mid to upper 40s in full sun, but it also could give the same area a 32F snowbomb. Unfortunately, we haven't really had many March events in the last few years for me to really get a handle on.

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Here comes Pete to tell us how great GC is.

It is a wonderful place. BTW, I saw the 'weirdo' comment from this AM. Nice, really nice.

Big winter incoming.

Absolutely, MRG and the other lesser NNE ski areas should do very well. I guess DT must have excluded the vast North country of NE when he said no more Winter storms (not to mentionn all the snow that has fallen here since his dubious call)

That creek behind is house is gonna be dam high by Monday morning.

It will probably scour the ice off. It's cool to see the slurry of ice that flows when we get these rainers. Sometimes huge slabs break loose and make a thunderous noise when they go by hitting boulders on the trip downstream.

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It is a wonderful place. BTW, I saw the 'weirdo' comment from this AM. Nice, really nice.

Absolutely, MRG and the other lesser NNE ski areas should do very well. I guess DT must have excluded the vast North country of NE when he said no more Winter storms (not to mentionn all the snow that has fallen here since his dubious call)

It will probably scour the ice off. It's cool to see the slurry of ice that flows when we get these rainers. Sometimes huge slabs break loose and make a thunderous noise when they go by hitting boulders on the trip downstream.

You gotta expect a little jab here and there with all the quotes about GC.

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You gotta expect a little jab here and there with all the quotes about GC.

LOL, it's cool. I think it's funny, although, I sometimes wonder if you guys really think I'm a total freak just because I have long hair. The fact of the matter is I'm actually quite conservative. I know you guys are all secretly jealous of the snow and good clean living we enjoy here in GC. I feel sorry for you urban dwellers, what with all the crime and pollution you endure.

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When was the last time you had delivered pizza? 70's?

Have never had Pizza delivered here that's for sure. When I was in college it was a staple though. How you doing Kev? Are you ok? must be tough to know you're losing your once in a lifetime snowpack. Don't worry though, next year I'll invite you and the other Easterners up to visit the snow.

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If you loop the 18z ensembles, you'll see what I mean about the highs. Just hope they are right.

We are fighting the pattern for sure. We'll hope we can score a nice storm on good timing, but we may end up with another cutter next week. I hope it gets squashed underneath us though. After that we'll try it again...a transient well timed ridge out west would do some help.

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Go snow or go home. Joe Joyce:

I see a lot of quiet weather from the 14th and beyond. But what lies ahead

towards the end of March is a bit more uncertain.

The NAO has been positive the past few weeks, and is starting to trend

down…but does not show any signs of turning negative in the immediate future. In

fact, it hovers in the neutral through the forseeable future…which should keep

the pattern as is…with little snow for now.

Lately we have been seeing more ridging over the east and a trough out

west. This pattern will likely change before the winter is all over. We have to

watch for a trough building near Japan…for 10 days later, troughs tend to form

over the northeast…If this along with a slightly negative NAO develop…we just

may see a more wintry pattern to end the month with a trough over the northeast

giving one more parting prize to this winter. It is possible…but hard to say

right now…I am leaning towards that, but all signs are pointing to us slowly tip

toeing through March with hopefully no major flooding problems for now. It is a

fast active progressive pattern which will keep storms moving. The Problems are

started when we find ourselves in a blocking pattern and storms stall…making for

inches and inches of rain spring flooding. This could be April’s story.

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Have never had Pizza delivered here that's for sure. When I was in college it was a staple though. How you doing Kev? Are you ok? must be tough to know you're losing your once in a lifetime snowpack. Don't worry though, next year I'll invite you and the other Easterners up to visit the snow.

Big rain incoming, big big rain. :(

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Have never had Pizza delivered here that's for sure. When I was in college it was a staple though. How you doing Kev? Are you ok? must be tough to know you're losing your once in a lifetime snowpack. Don't worry though, next year I'll invite you and the other Easterners up to visit the snow.

Been sick with 102 fever, flu and now bronchitis. Add onto that a 3 day torch and rainstorm on top of snowpack..and it's about done me in

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Sort of OT here, but I think the one good thing that many hobbyists and amateurs can take from this winter, is the fact that QPF is not everything. There must have been 3 or 4 storms where we proved how the structure and position of mid level lows is going to dictate how much snow we receive. Storms like 1/12 and 1/27 were examples of how the placement of mid level lows will help overachieve, and then we have part two of the ground hog day storm to tell us how we will probably underachieve, wrt QPF. That storm had some people throwing out obscene numbers, and they weren't weenies doing this either. I look back and I think we all did a great job breaking down these storms, and I hope people learned a thing or two from it. MPM can sleep better over the summer, knowing that when a storm shows 0.5" QPF next winter, but a closed 700 bowling ball going under LI...he'll probably get smoked with over a foot.

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Sort of OT here, but I think the one good thing that many hobbyists and amateurs can take from this winter, is the fact that QPF is not everything. There must have been 3 or 4 storms where we proved how the structure and position of mid level lows is going to dictate how much snow we receive. Storms like 1/12 and 1/27 were examples of how the placement of mid level lows will help overachieve, and then we have part two of the ground hog day storm to tell us how we will probably underachieve, wrt QPF. That storm had some people throwing out obscene numbers, and they weren't weenies doing this either. I look back and I think we all did a great job breaking down these storms, and I hope people learned a thing or two from it. MPM can sleep better over the summer, knowing that when a storm shows 0.5" QPF next winter, but a closed 700 bowling ball going under LI...he'll probably get smoked with over a foot.

Yeah it was great discussion this winter regarding those features. It was the coastal storm version of those SWFE discussions Ekster and I had for 2 years from '07-'09 during all those events.

Regardless though, its tough to lose the QPF mindset when you aren't that familiar with other stuff.

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Let me guess, portable gas grill for tailgating, A sleeping bag big enough for 2 burly men and a battery operated TV.lol

When we go camping, it's usually pretty remote, so you need some good equipment. My favorite spot is towards the beginning of the Androscoggin river, north of Errol NH. That my friend, is true GC. I've never seen more wildlife in one area. First time ever seeing a bald eagle.

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Sort of OT here, but I think the one good thing that many hobbyists and amateurs can take from this winter, is the fact that QPF is not everything. There must have been 3 or 4 storms where we proved how the structure and position of mid level lows is going to dictate how much snow we receive. Storms like 1/12 and 1/27 were examples of how the placement of mid level lows will help overachieve, and then we have part two of the ground hog day storm to tell us how we will probably underachieve, wrt QPF. That storm had some people throwing out obscene numbers, and they weren't weenies doing this either. I look back and I think we all did a great job breaking down these storms, and I hope people learned a thing or two from it. MPM can sleep better over the summer, knowing that when a storm shows 0.5" QPF next winter, but a closed 700 bowling ball going under LI...he'll probably get smoked with over a foot.

Lesson learned, Teach!

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Big rain incoming, big big rain. :(

Yup, total bummer. Like I said though, I'm happy that MRG should get a pounding.

Been sick with 102 fever, flu and now bronchitis. Add onto that a 3 day torch and rainstorm on top of snowpack..and it's about done me in

Sorry to hear that. Now I feel bad for being a d*ck.lol We'll get more snow this year, you should top the much coveted 100" mark. I'm going to AK at the end of the month so even if total diaster strikes I'll at least get one more REALLY good snow fix.

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When we go to Brokeback mtn to go camping, it's usually pretty remote, so you need some good equipment. My favorite spot is towards the beginning of the Androscoggin river, north of Errol NH. That is where my friends and I get nude. I've never seen more men in one area.It wasn't the first time ever seeing a bald weenie face to face and it certainly won't be the last. To me Brokeback is the true GC.

Hmm...that just makes me feel disgusting

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When we go camping, it's usually pretty remote, so you need some good equipment. My favorite spot is towards the beginning of the Androscoggin river, north of Errol NH. That my friend, is true GC. I've never seen more wildlife in one area. First time ever seeing a bald eagle.

BAld eagles are actually not that rare anymore thankfully. We have a few nesting pairs on the lake near the house. AK is true GC.

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Yeah it was great discussion this winter regarding those features. It was the coastal storm version of those SWFE discussions Ekster and I had for 2 years from '07-'09 during all those events.

Regardless though, its tough to lose the QPF mindset when you aren't that familiar with other stuff.

Oh definitely, but at least people get to see the inner workings of forecasting. I know you know this, but back in the day...models sucked at QPF. Meteorologists had to look at the placement of things like the 850, 700, and 500 lows to get an idea of what may happen as far as QPF goes. It's a reason why people like Wes (Usedtobe) are so good in the business. If you read that paper that ChrisL posted about the blizzard of '78, you can see how the mets down in DC boosted the 24hr QPF based on the positions of the mid level lows, because numerical models were too low. It's easy for us to fall into the QPF trap with winter storms, but it's also a chance for mets to look good if they recognize how certain features will come into play. For instance, we will hardly get 18" of snow, if the 700 low goes over Dendrite and the 850 low tracks across your fanny.

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Noyes really weenieing out

mattnoyes Matt Noyes Funny thing is all u have 2 do is keep this pattern in2 tropical season 2 get northward racing storm like '38 as hi goes offshore. I digress

mattnoyes Matt Noyes That record cold -15 at Bangor yesterday AM amazing. Old record -13 held since 1938. Did we get a hurricane that year? Uh oh.

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When we go camping, it's usually pretty remote, so you need some good equipment. My favorite spot is towards the beginning of the Androscoggin river, north of Errol NH. That my friend, is true GC. I've never seen more wildlife in one area. First time ever seeing a bald eagle.

Lots of bald eagles in CT, ice fisherman feed them scrap fish like Pickeral even way down on Amos Lake in Preston CT, awesome birds.

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