ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 After most of the precip is over though Looks like a 3-5 hour shot of ZR that changes to pellets on GFS before ending...probably wouldn't be enough time for major icing. If you can get a 10-12 hour period of good icing, then it might cause some huge problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 This could be quite the high impact event in the North Country... I'm surprised at how this has evolved. NNE should get a dumping of variety of p-types. Massive QPF means massive ice, sleet, or snow. Game on (hopefully). Would be a miracle if we come out of this with more snow on the ground than when it started... and that looks like a very real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 After most of the precip is over though It's interesting to see the big timing differences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS is much faster. I'd probably hedge more toward it just from previous experience telling me storms usually go faster than models predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It's interesting to see the big timing differences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS is much faster. I'd probably hedge more toward it just from previous experience telling me storms usually go faster than models predict. They do? 46.2/40 Edit: Very sad. Roof slide. Hopefully we'll get at least one more storm this year to allow for that sound again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm just getting my first look at the models and the 12z UKMET looks massive up here... just panel after panel of .25-.5" QPF riding over a sub 540dm thickness. Incredible! The GGEM is disgustingly moist also in the cold sector. This could turn out to be a power knocker outter for a lot of us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 They do? 46.2/40 Edit: Very sad. Roof slide. Hopefully we'll get at least one more storm this year to allow for that sound again. Yeah, here's both models at hour 42: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_042m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_042m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 They do? 46.2/40 Edit: Very sad. Roof slide. Hopefully we'll get at least one more storm this year to allow for that sound again. About a 6 hour difference, but tough to tell since they're also so drastically different solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Looks like a 3-5 hour shot of ZR that changes to pellets on GFS before ending...probably wouldn't be enough time for major icing. If you can get a 10-12 hour period of good icing, then it might cause some huge problems. If the GFS trends a little warmer, then we're looking at major problems. Plymouth held onto low level cold very well today. High 34, which is probably one of the coldest in the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 GFS and NAM MOS snow category numbers are telling... its always a good sign with MOS is on your side. GFS has "1" then "8" across BTV, MPV, MVL... while NAM has "6" then "2". Either way, both MOS are indicating double digit snowfall at the three ASOS stations in northern VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Biggest NEK storm of the year, Walt Drag commerce shutdown special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Think its time to move on from the back patting and so called I said it first type of stuff. FAct of the matter is..mud season is upon us..no true spring this year like we had last year. Just a cold, raw, muddy next 2 months..So for those that wanted it congrats and enjoy it. For the rest of us who were thinking there'd still be some winter wx left...it's certainly ok to be depressed, get emotional and vent..then we sit back and laugh while those who longed for spring back in january and said winter was over in Feb to complain miserably about 40 and drizzle for the next 8 weeks The pattern started looking a little less interesting, right when the dam groundhog got pulled from its den. Remember when we started posting about the -PNA making it hostile?? However, I did think it would be a little more "snowy" during the last week of Feb and early March, so I was wrong there. That said, I still ended up with over 18" of snow, so I can't complain. I think it's easy for those who were calling an end to winter to claim victory, since we coasted down from the epic pattern that we had in January. Sure some areas near me had a big snowpack loss, but is that really a shocker? I had near 30" just after 2/2 so is it really a shock that a lot of it went away? That's just not supposed to happen in much of sne..never mind this area. There is still quite a bit left in the burbs, Hopefully the GFS ensembles have a clue going forward. I'm not too big on the rest of the month, but we also could have something sneak up on us, that isn't well documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 If the GFS trends a little warmer, then we're looking at major problems. Plymouth held onto low level cold very well today. High 34, which is probably one of the coldest in the state The problem is this will mix out and the low level cold will have to advect back in from the NW. That can be a bit of a "relative" struggle for us. Kevin will love to know that I've shot up from 36F to 48F in the past hour. It will be interesting to see if the sfc warm front clears Plymouth tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 D10 GFS FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 D10 GFS FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The problem is this will mix out and the low level cold will have to advect back in from the NW. That can be a bit of a "relative" struggle for us. Kevin will love to know that I've shot up from 36F to 48F in the past hour. It will be interesting to see if the sfc warm front clears Plymouth tonight. Tomorrow will be interesting to watch for areas that might have a threat of ice in NNE/CNE. If you recall the day before the ice storm down here in December 2008, we had temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. So we managed to advect the colder airmass in ahead of that totally juiced southern stream system. But this current setup probably has a tighter window for that...but it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Whats everyones thought on snow at LSC in the NEK?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It's interesting to see the big timing differences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS is much faster. I'd probably hedge more toward it just from previous experience telling me storms usually go faster than models predict. Yeah, here's both models at hour 42: http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_042m.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_042m.gif My "they do?" question was actually in regard to the bolded above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 D10 GFS FTW. Transient Rockies/W plains ridge FTW....that will be one of the few ways we can get something...esp with shortening wavelengths. I'm still holding out a bit of hope for next week's system, but the Euro looks terrible...other guidance looks a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 My "they do?" question was actually in regard to the bolded above. Lol, just an observation of mine..maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 At this point, we can melt the snow. Today ends the streak of 12"+ snow depth at 54 days. After the high of 54 today, the snow isn't even worth it at all honestly unless we can get a refresher. It's like what Bob and messenger had in early Feb, just ugly brown snow. Even in yards now, not just by roads. Up to 39.2F here. Skiied a bit last night. Interested to see how my local mountain does after this mess. Still 100% open, but they will begin to lose trails soon I think It was in great shape today. Huge difference between the base and the peak at 2000' though. Only trail closed was the "Mass Pike." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 D10 GFS FTW. A day 10 storm would be a nice winter finale. I'm headed to DC on the 17th so no lets not make it any later then day 10 unless its after day 15... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Transient Rockies/W plains ridge FTW....that will be one of the few ways we can get something...esp with shortening wavelengths. I'm still holding out a bit of hope for next week's system, but the Euro looks terrible...other guidance looks a bit better. Yeah, we are starting to move away from timing storms with teleconnections and what not, because they start to correlate less and less as we head into Spring. As you said..transient ridges and shortening of wavelenghts will hopefully deliver. The euro ensembles are ugly, but the GFS ensembles still have no shortage of arctic highs building south, and they have been consistent. I can see why next week may be interesting for the interior, but it's starting to take on that negative tilt se flow. The period after next weekend looks a little more favorable, but certainly not ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Here comes Pete to tell us how great GC is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Here comes Pete to tell us how great GC is. Big winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 BTW, I was still standing on top of the snowpack with temps in the low 50s today. That tells you how tough it's gonna be to beat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yeah, we are starting to move away from timing storms with teleconnections and what not, because they start to correlate less and less as we head into Spring. As you said..transient ridges and shortening of wavelenghts will hopefully deliver. The euro ensembles are ugly, but the GFS ensembles still have no shortage of arctic highs building south, and they have been consistent. I can see why next week may be interesting for the interior, but it's starting to take on that negative tilt se flow. The period after next weekend looks a little more favorable, but certainly not ideal. As you head into latter March and April its kind of funny how it works with snow events...the NAO and such will still correlate pretty well with temps but not necessarily for snow storms because rotted out NE Canada airmass might just give us a 40F rainstorm which is below avg but not a snow event....where as we'll want more interaction from the northern jet from the NW to entrain cold air into those systems for better shots at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 D10 GFS FTW. That would be a great birthday present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Big winter incoming. That creek behind is house is gonna be dam high by Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Another awesome day of skiing as Winter rolls on. Too bad about this latest system down here but thankfully it looks like MRG will score big. Let me guess, Kevin is saying There will be no snow left anywhere in SNE.lol It'll take more than this storm to erase it here. Still, it would have been nice if this had been a blue bomber here but there is no reason to think more snow won't fall during the '10-'11 season. A couple months of Spring skiing ahead. Life is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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