chim chiminey Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 At least we can point to a cause of the NAM differences. It's obviously extreme and I think it's wrong since the NAM has tended to have issues this season related to storms that have a lot of convection associated with them (which there clearly is just by glancing at the current radar around mississippi and alabama). If it's right though, really tough break for VT though quickly glancing at the soundings up in N VT - the warmest layer is still 850 and it's damn close to snow so with precip that heavy, dynamics might take over, who knows. It only spits out around 0.25-0.35 QPF for us in E MA though! the NAM does overdo QPF, but it doesn't seem to cause significant errors in the storm track. It seemed to nail today better than the other models from a few days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 thinking about heading up to LSC then staying overnight and skiing Jay Monday. Think it'll be cement? I've heard up to 2' on the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 my dad just left to go to my grandfathers in baldwin mills quebec its about 10 miles over the vermont boarder must be nice to be him lol elevation 1800 feet i think he will be in a good spot Man, this might be one of the few times I wish I was back in Ithaca for a storm. It should be fun watching the obs in the cold sector of the storm...someone might be completely smoked with a blue snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Think its time to move on from the back patting and so called I said it first type of stuff. FAct of the matter is..mud season is upon us..no true spring this year like we had last year. Just a cold, raw, muddy next 2 months..So for those that wanted it congrats and enjoy it. For the rest of us who were thinking there'd still be some winter wx left...it's certainly ok to be depressed, get emotional and vent..then we sit back and laugh while those who longed for spring back in january and said winter was over in Feb to complain miserably about 40 and drizzle for the next 8 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I guess it's a question of whether widespread convection can cause these type of differences: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 the NAM does overdo QPF, but it doesn't seem to cause significant errors in the storm track. It seemed to nail today better than the other models from a few days out In this case my point is that I think the QPF is wrong (way over-done) and the track is very wrong for the same reason that the QPF is wrong - the system is way too amped due to the model keying in on convection to over-strengthen the entire system. Consensus of GFS/Euro/UKMET/GGEM of going from NJ to E MA are way more likely than this outlier NAM run in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Think its time to move on from the back patting and so called I said it first type of stuff. FAct of the matter is..mud season is upon us..no true spring this year like we had last year. Just a cold, raw, muddy next 2 months..So for those that wanted it congrats and enjoy it. For the rest of us who were thinking there'd still be some winter wx left...it's certainly ok to be depressed, get emotional and vent..then we sit back and laugh while those who longed for spring back in january and said winter was over in Feb to complain miserably about 40 and drizzle for the next 8 weeks Amen, that stuff gets so old but its also very difficult to "verify"...we went through a transition of sorts in the 2nd half of February where CNE/NNE started getting much more snow and southern SNE was getting nothing, a classic gradient pattern...while northern SNE was getting a lot of front snow to ice events and a smallish snow event here and there. If your back yard is down in far SE MA where winter ended on January 31st, then you can say one thing....if it is up in N ORH county or GC where there have been multiple icing events while SE was getting all rain, then its another story. This upcoming pattern might even start to suck for CNE/NNE, but hopefully we can still find a way to get systems far enough south to give at least some wintry precip and keep the ski areas up north doing ok. Regardless even if the next week to 10 days is hellecious, we still have seen plenty of larger events post-Mar 14th and cannot rule them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Think its time to move on from the back patting and so called I said it first type of stuff. FAct of the matter is..mud season is upon us..no true spring this year like we had last year. Just a cold, raw, muddy next 2 months..So for those that wanted it congrats and enjoy it. For the rest of us who were thinking there'd still be some winter wx left...it's certainly ok to be depressed, get emotional and vent..then we sit back and laugh while those who longed for spring back in january and said winter was over in Feb to complain miserably about 40 and drizzle for the next 8 weeks Sounds like a normal SNE spring to me. Real spring weather here usually doesn't start until May. I may be one of the few who love spring in this area, the plants have a relatively short growing cycle so their growth is pretty explosive once the warmer weather finally moves in. The cold drizzly rain and heavy mud just kinda comes with the territory so there's no real reason to get upset about it IMO, but if you do that's fine too. To each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 honestly to me this looks like a classic southern new england spring flood event!! epic snowloss today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Amen, that stuff gets so old but its also very difficult to "verify"...we went through a transition of sorts in the 2nd half of February where CNE/NNE started getting much more snow and southern SNE was getting nothing, a classic gradient pattern...while northern SNE was getting a lot of front snow to ice events and a smallish snow event here and there. If your back yard is down in far SE MA where winter ended on January 31st, then you can say one thing....if it is up in N ORH county or GC where there have been multiple icing events while SE was getting all rain, then its another story. This upcoming pattern might even start to suck for CNE/NNE, but hopefully we can still find a way to get systems far enough south to give at least some wintry precip and keep the ski areas up north doing ok. Regardless even if the next week to 10 days is hellecious, we still have seen plenty of larger events post-Mar 14th and cannot rule them out. I have a feeling we'll see one or 2 snow events during the last 10-12 days of the month or maybe even early April. We're due for an April event. It's been a while..though its been awhile since a March event lol. With the -NAO coming back late month and April I honestly can't wait to see those getting naked for spring anguish in misery as much as I hate cloudy, drizzly wx..it'll be worth it for them to suffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z gfs and 18z gfs look exactly the same fwiw so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 In this case my point is that I think the QPF is wrong (way over-done) and the track is very wrong for the same reason that the QPF is wrong - the system is way too amped due to the model keying in on convection to over-strengthen the entire system. Consensus of GFS/Euro/UKMET/GGEM of going from NJ to E MA are way more likely than this outlier NAM run in my opinion. I see. but I believe NAM handled today's convection the best from 24 hrs out. I didn't look too closely to see how it did compared to the other models in terms of surface pressures and storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Radar and satellite are very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 I guess it's a question of whether widespread convection can cause these type of differences: .... Wouldn't it be cool if this came through here with 60dps over this snow pack - http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MOB&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 so as of now, the 12z CMC, 12z UKMET, 12z EURO, and 12z and 18z GFS have great snows for northern VT...and the Nam is the only outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 I have a feeling we'll see one or 2 snow events during the last 10-12 days of the month or maybe even early April. We're due for an April event. It's been a while..though its been awhile since a March event lol. With the -NAO coming back late month and April I honestly can't wait to see those getting naked for spring anguish in misery as much as I hate cloudy, drizzly wx..it'll be worth it for them to suffer The deterministic GFS actually isn't far from making this next system this week interesting, actually. The 06z had a big polar high N of ME with a slow moving wave tucking up underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 15z srefs se of 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Epic snowpack denter. Will it verify? 46.9/40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 So far today I have lost 2.5" of my pack. Down to 17" Expecting to lose another couple until midnight, 5-7" Sunday Hope to keep 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 So far today I have lost 2.5" of my pack. Down to 17" Expecting to lose another couple until midnight, 5-7" Sunday Hope to keep 5-8" So far today, I've been able to clear 1/8 of my driveway to pavement. As Eric Idle said: Always look on the bright side of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I hope Vim Toot is home to take pictures of the carnage post-storm. His snowmobiles will look like small bumps in the vast fields of snow across his property. Wonder how much snow pack he currently has. Also hard to remember when we felt bad because he missed just about every storm that was crushing SNE in Jauary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Epic snowpack denter. Will it verify? 46.9/40 Both GFS and NAM showing over 1" QPF as snow up here... NAM has 1" snow, 0.9" sleet, and 0.6" rain. Major Winter Storm territory with those QPF amounts. Winter Storm Warning now in effect for 8-16" of wet snow. Maple mauler it is! NYZ028-035-VTZ001>003-005-006-009-016>018-061100- /O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0006.110306T1800Z-110307T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0007.110306T1200Z-110307T1200Z/ EASTERN CLINTON-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS- WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-WESTERN ADDISON-EASTERN FRANKLIN- EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLATTSBURGH...PORT HENRY... TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT... BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES... ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON 215 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 16 INCHES...ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. * TIMING...OCCASIONAL RAIN TONIGHT...WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES INTO MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 so as of now, the 12z CMC, 12z UKMET, 12z EURO, and 12z and 18z GFS have great snows for northern VT...and the Nam is the only outlier? I think at least extreme N VT will do fine. NAM is probably a little over juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Does anyone think that BOX will bring up flood watches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Wow... this is all snow on the GFS up here. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Massive ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 BOX back to 1-2" rain Sunday night here. Blub blub blub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 18z GFS did move slightly further north with low before it exits into the GOM...reducing the precipitation for eastern areas. I'm in agreement with Sam that the NAM is keying on the heavy widespread convection...which is really there...so it's not completely off it's rocker. However, it's probably overdoing the feedback. Maybe a situation where a 50/50 mesoscale/global blend will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Massive ice storm That 36h sounding is a big pellet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 That 36h sounding is a big pellet storm. After most of the precip is over though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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