Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 "...TARGETED RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED FOR THE PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE PERIOD TO HELP SORT OUT THE CRITICALREGION BELIEVED TO HAVE BEARING ON THE DOWNSTREAM SPLIT. CISCO" In brief, what I am seeing is a sharply rising PNA in the nightly computations at both CDC and CPC... It's not so much that the value barely exceed 0.0 SD, but that it recovers some 2SD total. That should offer at least some relaxation of tendencies to drill lowered heights in the intermountain region; interestingly, timed accordingly most deterministiic guidance do have at least a trasient ridge propagating through there. The amplitude in the E in a week has been hit on fairly hard by the operational GFS, despite not being the model of choice because of its apparent progressivity bias in that late middle range(s). This seems plausible here because the NAO is weakly descended, but enough to offer some lowering height tendencies in the east. That is a "weak" teleconnector convergence of sorts in totality...rightfully ear marked by a well timed transient trough along the EC notwithstanding magnitude. The dailies of the event are inrtiguing with ill-timed lower tropospheric features. Large polar high slips seaward and this sets up a pre-baroclinic axis that already has southerly winds up and down the EC before the trough arrives. That is why a few of these runs all look 1888'ish with the warm air/sector attemping to punch west on the polarward side of the wave that would inevitably develope farther down the baroclinic axis. The -EPO that also flexes during that period could, however, send down a pretty impressive late season +PP anomally across southern Canada, and the ESENs mean actually shows a strong arm of this high pressure extending east toward NW New England. That enters the possibiity that these runs are too low with the sealvl pressure medium in Ontario, and thus, "too 1888ish" to be corrected toward a colder polar side environment. The other thing I am noting is that the heights and balanced mlv wind field over the deep S/SE, well prior to the trough arrival, are suddenly quite compressible by week's end. Should even slighter ridge amplitude surge out W, the bottom likely drops out and any S/W dynamics rattling around in the spatial-temporal layout of these large synoptic scale changes would undoubtedly avail and carve out something more impressive over what is currently modeled - just something to heads up. All in all ...nothing deterministic, but the extremes on this event range from a slow moving western runner with a lot of high PWAT transport and southerly high DP winds to obliterate the snow pack and drive rivers over bankful, to perhaps a more peace full lead baroclinic translation and cold bleed setting stage for the wave on the boundary to develop and get the region involved in a late season snow event. I do believe, though, that this is a monitorable event as the week goes on. John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 "...TARGETED RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED FOR THE PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE PERIOD TO HELP SORT OUT THE CRITICALREGION BELIEVED TO HAVE BEARING ON THE DOWNSTREAM SPLIT. CISCO" In brief, what I am seeing is a sharply rising PNA in the nightly computations at both CDC and CPC... It's not so much that the value barely exceed 0.0 SD, but that it recovers some 2SD total. That should offer at least some relaxation of tendencies to drill lowered heights in the intermountain region; interestingly, timed accordingly most deterministiic guidance do have at least a trasient ridge propagating through there. The amplitude in the E in a week has been hit on fairly hard by the operational GFS, despite not being the model of choice because of its apparent progressivity bias in that late middle range(s). This seems plausible here because the NAO is weakly descended, but enough to offer some lowering height tendencies in the east. That is a "weak" teleconnector convergence of sorts in totality...rightfully ear marked by a well timed transient trough along the EC notwithstanding magnitude. The dailies of the event are inrtiguing with ill-timed lower tropospheric features. Large polar high slips seaward and this sets up a pre-baroclinic axis that already has southerly winds up and down the EC before the trough arrives. That is why a few of these runs all look 1888'ish with the warm air/sector attemping to punch west on the polarward side of the wave that would inevitably develope farther down the baroclinic axis. The -EPO that also flexes during that period could, however, send down a pretty impressive late season +PP anomally across southern Canada, and the ESENs mean actually shows a strong arm of this high pressure extending east toward NW New England. That enters the possibiity that these runs are too low with the sealvl pressure medium in Ontario, and thus, "too 1888ish" to be corrected toward a colder polar side environment. The other thing I am noting is that the heights and balanced mlv wind field over the deep S/SE, well prior to the trough arrival, are suddenly quite compressible by week's end. Should even slighter ridge amplitude surge out W, the bottom likely drops out and any S/W dynamics rattling around in the spatial-temporal layout of these large synoptic scale changes would undoubtedly avail and carve out something more impressive over what is currently modeled - just something to heads up. All in all ...nothing deterministic, but the extremes on this event range from a slow moving western runner with a lot of high PWAT transport and southerly high DP winds to obliterate the snow pack and drive rivers over bankful, to perhaps a more peace full lead baroclinic translation and cold bleed setting stage for a the wave on the boundary to develop and get the region involved in a late season snow event. I do believe, though, that this is a monitorable event as the week goes on. John Snow is good, snow is great. Snow is the way to go Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 1888 on top of Ginx's 1717 fetish sweet jeezus Send more planes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 1888 on top of Ginx's 1717 fetish sweet jeezus Send more planes Don't go nuts with that - nothing about this week's end synoptics hearkens to that... It was referenced just for the general appeal of having warm air wrapping around the north side... Welcome to Spring everyone! Seemingly right on schedule, there are now more warm sectors showing up in the extended GFS/ECM.... Regarding this, the models refuse to allow a cold solution to work out of this; may be the flood headliner - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Don't go nuts with that - nothing about this week's end synoptics hearkens to that... It was referenced just for the general appeal of having warm air wrapping around the north side... Welcome to Spring everyone! Seemingly right on schedule, there are now more warm sectors showing up in the extended GFS/ECM.... Regarding this, the models refuse to allow a cold solution to work out of this; may be the flood headliner - I know I know... I just thought it was funny to see it mentioned with some of those panels. Nice day out there Build the arks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 May 2006 revisited? With 2' on the ground, more up north, and 3-5 inches of rain that is like 5-7 inch rainfall.. flooding of the Merrimack ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 What's the latest on this? BOX seems to be favoring a slower, slightly less impactful outcome? 7:56AFD SUNDAY-MONDAY...AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THIS FLOW. THIS WILL TEND TO SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT WITH A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. STEADY RAINFALL WILL PUSH E DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY AND ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. APPEARS THAT MOST MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THIS FRONT. QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW DEEP WILL THIS LOW BECOME AND WHETHER IT TRIES TO TAP MOISTURE FROM DOWN THE COAST WHICH COULD BRING IN HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z OP ECMWF RUN...WERE LEANING TOWARD A WEAKER SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF COPIOUS RAIN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z OP ECMWF RUN CAME IN WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM AND HEAVY RAINFALL...ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 2 INCHES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS ALSO DRAMATICALLY SLOWED THE FRONT/S PROGRESSION AS OPPOSED TO MOST OF THE OTHER 12Z OP RUNS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED ON THE OTHER MODELS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONT AND WEAKER LOW...WHICH WOULD LEND TO SOMEWHAT LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS. FOR THIS PERIOD HAVE FORECASTED 0.7 TO 1.25 INCHES OF PRECIP...HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL BE RATHER MILD ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS REACHING TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION. MAY SEE TEMPS FALL BACK TO AROUND 30 WELL INLAND WHICH COULD MEAN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP...BUT SUSPECT THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE CONTINUED S-SW WIND FLOW. FOR NOW...WILL TIME THE PRECIP TAPERING OFF DURING MONDAY AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND TO CAPE COD...DRAGGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME COLDER AIR WORKING IN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE A MIX OR CHANGE BACK TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 0z NAM is looking a little more Euroish to me. A more potent lower MS Vly s/w and a healthier 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 0z NAM is looking a little more Euroish to me. A more potent lower MS Vly s/w and a healthier 2nd wave. Yeah, It looks similar and i am not going to extropolate where i think it ends up...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Couple of years back or maybe three? , consistent low pressure in Quebec screwed us in March, rack up another same type deal this weekend for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 QPF bombs on the GFS very CF looking, toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Heavy sleet to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I have my doubts about the GFS. It is so much faster moving the system to the east than the NAM and Euro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 0z EC and 6z cut the 2nd wave west now and clobber extreme N NY and the NW tip of VT. The 6z GFS jumps on board and clobbers interior MA and then me with 1-2ft of snow. lol Hopefully the EC is too far west or else it's more of a storm for Massena, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 ...And the EC ensembles are a little cooler than the op, but it really only helps powderfreak up near BTV land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Ice is a mjor concern for most inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Ice is a mjor concern for most inland It is? I thought that concern had lessened and it's really an issue of either rn/ip/sn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I like ALY's thinking. I think things will break the right way for those of us in the high terrain. March/April are risk reward months. I'll take an active weather pattern that offers both good and bad results over a dull, lifeless month. March snow totals are going to start to add up in the higher elevations.AWT. OPTION ONE: RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN TAPERS OFF TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON (00Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM). SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS OPTION. HAVE CHOSEN TO FORECAST USING OPTION ONE...SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS THE MOST IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS ALY FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Not that dire here on the East slope. What we may lose off the top we are likely to gain right back. Tis only a flesh wound. Today...Partly sunny. Cold with highs in the lower 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Tonight...Cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the mid 20s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Saturday...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning...then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Not as cool with highs in the lower 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Saturday Night...Rain likely. Not as cool. Near steady temperature in the upper 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. Sunday...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph...becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent. Sunday Night...Rain with snow likely with freezing rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Monday...Snow likely. Cooler with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This part is better than it was yesterday... (4:45AFD BOX) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS PREVALENT JUST EAST OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS A SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. USED A BLEND OF THE SLOWER 00Z NAM AND FASTER 00Z GFS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS YIELDS A SOLUTION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE. ELSEWHERE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. STILL THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SURFACE LOW TRACK AND IMPACT ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE RAIN SNOW LINE ATTM GIVEN RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY AS WELL AS A WIDE RANGE OF ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 This part is better than it was yesterday... (4:45AFD BOX) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS PREVALENT JUST EAST OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS A SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. USED A BLEND OF THE SLOWER 00Z NAM AND FASTER 00Z GFS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS YIELDS A SOLUTION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE. ELSEWHERE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. STILL THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SURFACE LOW TRACK AND IMPACT ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE RAIN SNOW LINE ATTM GIVEN RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY AS WELL AS A WIDE RANGE OF ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS. Mmm, yes I noticed the 06z GFS with excessive short duration snow fall rates for east of EEN-Tolland CT (HAHA). Eastern sections got clipped with a blue snow clocking with a synoptic appeal of 10" for interior eastern Mass and NW RI. Front clears and more or less what the previous runs were showing returned in the 06z GFS and to some degree in the 00Z Euro, encouraging for those unable to let go of winter emotionally. Personally I think you'd improve the quality of your life if you'd check into the Beddy Ford clinic on this and not get enabled by another event... Be that as it may, now that there is a better relay off the Pacific ... it is no wonder we see more southern stream dynamics conserved post fropa up along the NE coast. And this 500mb wave dynamic is moving slightly W of the low level baroclinic axis once it has been displaced E of Cape Cod, so that supports a strong ~ 850mb-700mb inflow response to get the cyclogen aided along. This develops a moderate cyclogensis containing jacked PWAT. Interesting to see the 06z GFS really deepen the 850mb level circulation field - that is ideal looking frontogen kinetics and that would probably result in thundersnow if that solution verfied verbatim. Haven't seen much other guidance so frankly take this with a grain of salt. Eh... it is what it is. Beyond that, definitely can detect the models tusseling with season change. Cut-off season is abounding in the operational GFS and to some degree in the ECM, and deterministics pretty much do not exist for the foreseeable future - no help from the teleoconnectors for correction methods, either. Par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Wow, on the 00z NAM ... can't wait to see this 12z... But the 00z flat out implies something major evolving with a negatively tilted deep layer trough clearly attempting to cut and slip under LI... Regardless of whether there is a quasi-warm sectoral look to the thickness and PP in the area, with a 1044mb polar high stacked into far eastern Ontario, that would all mean a massively collapsing column extrapolated into a some kind of big huge deal. 06z was slightly less impressive but still offered vestiges of something of similar ilk... hahah, good thing I waited to see that piece of shist - Get me to May 1 already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Wow, on the 00z NAM ... can't wait to see this 12z... But the 00z flat out implies something major evolving with a negatively tilted deep layer trough clearly attempting to cut and slip under LI... Regardless of whether there is a quasi-warm sectoral look to the thickness and PP in the area, with a 1044mb polar high stacked into far eastern Ontario, that would all mean a massively collapsing column extrapolated into a some kind of big huge deal. 06z was slightly less impressive but still offered vestiges of something of similar ilk... hahah, good thing I waited to see that piece of shist - Get me to May 1 already! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/14606-dave-tolleris-says-tip-will-be-in-garagewindows-up/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 whats up with the 6z gfs, over an inch of ZR for KPVD....not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Mmm, yes I noticed the 06z GFS with excessive short duration snow fall rates for east of EEN-Tolland CT (HAHA). Eastern sections got clipped with a blue snow clocking with a synoptic appeal of 10" for interior eastern Mass and NW RI. Front clears and more or less what the previous runs were showing returned in the 06z GFS and to some degree in the 00Z Euro, encouraging for those unable to let go of winter emotionally. Personally I think you'd improve the quality of your life if you'd check into the Beddy Ford clinic on this and not get enabled by another event... Be that as it may, now that there is a better relay off the Pacific ... it is no wonder we see more southern stream dynamics conserved post fropa up along the NE coast. And this 500mb wave dynamic is moving slightly W of the low level baroclinic axis once it has been displaced E of Cape Cod, so that supports a strong ~ 850mb-700mb inflow response to get the cyclogen aided along. This develops a moderate cyclogensis containing jacked PWAT. Interesting to see the 06z GFS really deepen the 850mb level circulation field - that is ideal looking frontogen kinetics and that would probably result in thundersnow if that solution verfied verbatim. Haven't seen much other guidance so frankly take this with a grain of salt. Eh... it is what it is. Beyond that, definitely can detect the models tusseling with season change. Cut-off season is abounding in the operational GFS and to some degree in the ECM, and deterministics pretty much do not exist for the foreseeable future - no help from the teleoconnectors for correction methods, either. Par for the course. I'm a junkie!!! I love reading your posts. Once spring really arrives in April, please don't stop posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The 12Z NAM and previous GFS runs are totally on different planets when it comes to this system. NAM is closed off, negative.slams the route 401 corridor in Canada with a snowstorm. GFS progressive off the east coast and out much faster... Usually when this kind of things happens the GFS capitulates..... I'm a junkie!!! I love reading your posts. Once spring really arrives in April, please don't stop posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I don't see any point in giving up on winter wx threats on march 4th when there won't be anything else worth following for months anyway....nothing to lose. Maybe I should give up on winter threats and embrace the mud season huh. Wow, on the 00z NAM ... can't wait to see this 12z... But the 00z flat out implies something major evolving with a negatively tilted deep layer trough clearly attempting to cut and slip under LI... Regardless of whether there is a quasi-warm sectoral look to the thickness and PP in the area, with a 1044mb polar high stacked into far eastern Ontario, that would all mean a massively collapsing column extrapolated into a some kind of big huge deal. 06z was slightly less impressive but still offered vestiges of something of similar ilk... hahah, good thing I waited to see that piece of shist - Get me to May 1 already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It will be really interesting to see where the heaviest rain sets up and falls with this system as this has potential to produce a good deal of flooding...will this be over our area though or will this threat be more north and perhaps west of our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Looks like the 12Z Gfs is trying to deliver another Snow bomb here similar to its 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Apparently I'm the one that gets the snow bomb on the new GFS, but I'd be afraid it will trend more west like the NAM on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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