Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 yeah its pretty much a lot closer to the GFS. the NAM / GEM develop a strong and deep trough in the S at 48 hours with pretty impressive tilt at h5, and just go berserk really. in reality, the GFS/ Euro are a lot more plausible with a less amplified trough and the low further east. obviously the models have struggled with this, but i have a hard time thinking that both the GFS and Euro could be missing such an impressive h5 presentation at only 48 hours away. given that the NAM does have some support at the key point 48 hours, it cannot be totally ruled out, but this would be a massive coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Starting to get interested now. Hoping this does not turn into a dud storm....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Sounds to me like the Euro is a NAM GFS compromise? Ehh, its slightly west of the GFS, but well east of the NAM. I'd say about 90% GFS / 10% NAM in relation to the 12z ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 yeah its pretty much a lot closer to the GFS. the NAM / GEM develop a strong and deep trough in the S at 48 hours with pretty impressive tilt at h5, and just go berserk really. in reality, the GFS/ Euro are a lot more plausible with a less amplified trough and the low further east. obviously the models have struggled with this, but i have a hard time thinking that both the GFS and Euro could be missing such an impressive h5 presentation at only 48 hours away. given that the NAM does have some support at the key point 48 hours, it cannot be totally ruled out, but this would be a massive coup. 12z Euro shifted east up here in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 12z Euro shifted east.. yeah thats what i said Dryslot, much closer to the GFS than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Andy's 12-16" swath from last storm would once again be painted over us. A heavy wet snow this time though. I hate using my plow as a squeegee it is hard on equipment. I am going to the firehouse tonight to get the portable pumps ready. I will keep working on the motorcycle too.....It seems to be working with the weather because I want to get riding......if anything just for the gas mileage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 yeah thats what i said Dryslot, much closer to the GFS than the NAM. Org low, Definitly, 12z Euro is about 30-50 miles east from the 0z Euro as well, Nam and RGEM are west of the apps, Plus the nam is at 84 hrs, Outside its zone, RGEM has a west bias i believe as well, Its hard to go against a GFS/Euro blend at this point it seeems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The people who are lucky enough to get the snow with this would start as wet snow, but there is some arctic air getting drawn in so you can't say it would all be wet snow..... Those who fall right near the RN/SN line would get extended wet snow. I hate using my plow as a squeegee it is hard on equipment. I am going to the firehouse tonight to get the portable pumps ready. I will keep working on the motorcycle too.....It seems to be working with the weather because I want to get riding......if anything just for the gas mileage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Looking back thru the ECM images, W NY def gets shafted (maybe up to 3") in comparison to the nuclear options of the NAM / GEM over this area. Just on a rough estimate... I'd say the... 4+ line starts from the Central S Tier up thru SYR / Tug Hill and points east... 6+ line starts just west of BGM northeast thru the MV / Southeast 1/2 of Dacks / Burlington VT and points east.... Probably around a foot in the hills N of ALB, especially up near GFL and along the New England border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 headed to ottawa now. should be an interesting weekend, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The people who are lucky enough to get the snow with this would start as wet snow, but there is some arctic air getting drawn in so you can't say it would all be wet snow..... Those who fall right near the RN/SN line would get extended wet snow. Oh I am not complaining,this will probably end up being one of my last big plowable storms.Like I said before,I am just started to get interested in this storm,just hope it's not a massive dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The people who are lucky enough to get the snow with this would start as wet snow, but there is some arctic air getting drawn in so you can't say it would all be wet snow..... Those who fall right near the RN/SN line would get extended wet snow. Agreed...................But I was just using a general blend of ...A) It will start heavy and wet and the ground will be soaked from the rain and.... The R/S line could indeed be just to our south for an extended period of heavier precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Looking back thru the ECM images, W NY def gets shafted (maybe up to 3")... especially when you consider the nuclear options of the NAM / GEM over this area. Just on a rough estimate... I'd say the... 4+ line starts from the Central S Tier up thru SYR / Tug Hill and points east... 6+ line starts just west of BGM northeast thru the MV / Southeast 1/2 of Dacks / Burlington VT and points east.... Maybe as much as a foot in the hills N of ALB, especially up near GFL and along the New England border... the euro at 48 is more impressive than its previous runs at h5 with the S energy, as you mentioned the low was intially further NW than its 00z run. as the run progresses, it loses that though and ends up further east. the first storm which i am focusing on first, is continuing to tick cooler and cooler for up here, especially the ottawa valley which is why i am headed there, and will move east over the weekend as needed depending on the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Maybe you can keep the skateway open for another week anyway. the euro at 48 is more impressive than its previous runs at h5 with the S energy, as you mentioned the low was intially further NW than its 00z run. as the run progresses, it loses that though and ends up further east. the first storm which i am focusing on first, is continuing to tick cooler and cooler for up here, especially the ottawa valley which is why i am headed there, and will move east over the weekend as needed depending on the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Concerning the 1st half of this event, BGM has now posted a Flood Watch for the entire cwa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Agreed...................But I was just using a general blend of ...A) It will start heavy and wet and the ground will be soaked from the rain and.... The R/S line could indeed be just to our south for an extended period of heavier precip GFL on North could be in the game on this, thats my early thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Some colorful images off the 12z GEM for our W NY contingent... The middle image does its best to eclipse Upstate from sight, but I assure you we're still there underneath it... somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GFL on North could be in the game on this, thats my early thinking. Hilltowns (Logan) too and Schoharie County. We might be looking at Elmer's Glue falling from the skies. If you believe 12z GFS verbatim even Albany gets pasted with paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Bring it brother! Hilltowns (Logan) too and Schoharie County. We might be looking at Elmer's Glue falling from the skies. If you believe 12z GFS verbatim even Albany gets pasted with paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 the first storm which i am focusing on first, is continuing to tick cooler and cooler for up here, especially the ottawa valley which is why i am headed there, and will move east over the weekend as needed depending on the second storm. Here is the 15h30 forecast from EC (20h30 Zulu).. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/on-118_metric_e.html ..the forecast has changed a bit..the 11h00 (16h00 zulu) had Sunday as 'rain or snow' and a high of +2...now it is 'periods of snow' and -2...from the untrained eye it appears as though now the switch over from rain to snow is occurring sooner..but still a long blast of dreaded winter rain...the good thing is that snow should be at the end leaving us still white here in Ottawa. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/CAON0332 not sure I can trust this forecast as it has as mainly sunny +1 and 10 cm of snow for next Wednesday fingers crossed this ends up being more snow than rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Bring it brother! Hope we get a foot in Albany so that we're flirting with the Century mark for snowfall and we move up into the top 10 or 5 snowiest winters of all-time! If this happens then percent of normal-wise we'll have more snow than the Tug and Tornado Girl won't like that! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 18z NAM has shifted east a bit... -Takes the heaviest snow out of W NY -Central Southern Tier up thru NC NY into N NY is annihilated. -Still mainly rain SC NY and E NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Holy Sh%^! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Holy Sh%^! But WAIT... there's more! Call in the next 10 minutes and get another period of pounding free of charge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hope we get a foot in Albany so that we're flirting with the Century mark for snowfall and we move up into the top 10 or 5 snowiest winters of all-time! If this happens then percent of normal-wise we'll have more snow than the Tug and Tornado Girl won't like that! LOL Any recent thoughts or changes to your forecast Andy? to me It's looking like a massive mess for us up here and an ark for south of ALB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Personally, I think HPC prob's are overall a little too aggressive / over-the-top from an overall vantage point, but damn... they are nice to look at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Any recent thoughts or changes to your forecast Andy? to me It's looking like a massive mess for us up here and an ark for south of ALB... TBH Low confidence forecast thru Mon...but this said even Albany can get thumped with S++ @ 34/35 degs on Monday. I've seen it before more than twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The 18Z GFS doesn't seem to have shifted much east or west, but the 2nd wave has much less qpf into the cold air. We are cut from 1.5" of frozen to maybe .35" of frozen. Again...doesn't look at all like the NAM or GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 KALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 well im in ottawa left at 2pm arrived at 4, not bad. traffic wasnt too bad major storm on the way, #1. interesting that env canada has the rainfall warning (which is warranted) up and could end up being late to the party on the winter aspect of this storm. somewhere near the upper ottawa valley and north of ottawa into the laurentians, someone should score 18 inches / 45cm of snow out of this first event by the time it winds down on sunday. for the cities, it will all depend on the wind shift. once they shift to S component, the temp should shoot up. localized effects have me believing that the ottawa area has the best shot of holding onto the E winds. though i expect they will go S at some point, hopefully they can hold off as long as possible, in the cities we should see snow/mix-> rain -> ice possible -> snow. initial snow should be anywhere from 1-2inches / 2-5cm or less if IP or frzra mixes in. ice is a concern. this is where env canada may be downplaying that aspect of this storm but then again, there may be very little ice. some of the SREFs are very persistent with icing, but again this depends on the winds, and eventually they will shift and changeover to rain, biggest push of warm air will be morning and afternoon. heavy rain expected for a period of time. by evening the colder air will begin pushing back towards ottawa from the NW, and the snow line will reapproach. again, it will all depend on the amount of surface warming and wind for the changeover back to snow but it could be anywhere from 7 or 8pm or as late as 3AM in ottawa. in montreal, changeover should be anywhere from 4AM to 10AM sunday. obviously the timing of the changoever will have a big effect on amounts. this is something we will just have to nowcast. i think anyhwere from 2-6inches / 5-15cm of snow should fall after the changeover, with amounts as much as 20cm / 8 inches possible in eastern ontario, before precip moves out sunday afternoon. all in all, a crazy, complicated storm to be sure. the second storm for sunday night-monday remains a bit of an enigma, but i am favoring the eastward solutions currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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