CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 HPC... PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 354 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011 VALID 12Z FRI MAR 04 2011 - 12Z MON MAR 07 2011 DAY 1-3... ...GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST/MID ATL... UNFORTUNATELY MODEL AGREEMENT DISSIPATES ON DAY 3...WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD SHOWN BY THE MODELS AS THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S. NAM/ECMWF SHOW TWO DISTINCT STREAMS WITH A WELL-DEFINED NEG TILTED SRN STREAM TROF MOVING INTO THE MID ATL MON MORNING. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN MID ATL/CNTRL APPALACHIANS AS THE STRONG SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COLD AIR. THE NAM WITH A SLOWER/DEEPER SOLN KEEPS THE COLDER AIR FURTHER TO THE W...RESULTING IN A NARROW HVY SNOW AXIS FROM THE LWR GREAT LAKES NEWD...WHILE THE ECMWF WHICH IS FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED ALLOWS THE COLD AIR TO PUSH FURTHER TO E AND THE HVY SNOWS TO DEVELOP FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST/NRN MID ATL. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE DOMINANT NRN STREAM WHICH DIMINISHES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SRN STREAM AND PUSHES IT MORE QUICKLY THRU THE EAST...RESULTING IN LIGHTER AMTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SPREAD...MODEL RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY HAS OFFERED FURTHER UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THEREFORE IT WAS HPC/S DECISION TO FOLLOW AN ENS APPROACH UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. PEREIRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Well, I think it's safe to say that this one will be a nail-biter and covered by nowcasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Never seen so much flip flop in the models. Seems like this is gonna be a "forecast at the last minute" type of storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Sorry haven't had a chance to take a look at the models. Is there any consensus with this storm yet? Is it NAM/GFS vs Euro/RGEM/CMC? Or just every model doing there own thing? Also what are the ensembles showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 extended GGEM is a severe beating for WNY and eastern ontario .....im guessing a lot of mixed precip in CNY and montreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Sorry haven't had a chance to take a look at the models. Is there any consensus with this storm yet? Is it NAM/GFS vs Euro/RGEM/CMC? Or just every model doing there own thing? Also what are the ensembles showing? Yeah, pretty much every model is playing it's own game out there. It's like watching an NBA All-star game, except these models ain't no all-stars............................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Yeah, pretty much every model is playing it's own game out there. It's like watching an NBA All-star game, except these models ain't no all-stars, and that's no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Perhaps the analogy of the year! Yeah, pretty much every model is playing it's own game out there. It's like watching an NBA All-star game, except these models ain't no all-stars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I can imagine it. LOL I had 46 inches of it about one year ago.... every bit fell with temps from 31-33F. I am sure that is a pretty safe bet....I cannot imagine 18 inches of cement/slop.What a nightmare that could be.....I wonder though,what would be worse an 1"+ of ice or even 16+" of slop...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Perhaps the analogy of the year! Ha, thanks. I had another good one last summer when us severe wx junkies were discussing an upcoming pattern favorable for derecho's across Upstate. Andy liked it so much, that he requested permission to use it on-air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just a genuine curb-stomping on the 12z GEM for W NY thru the LO Plain counties. If it or the NAM is right, there is going to be some 'mother of god' pictures making an appearence in this thread before this one is over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The Euro will be out soon and swing west I'm afraid.....hope I'm wrong for my sake. But I still think SYR to YUL could be it ..... My bet is that the GGEM and NAM are off to the far side and will correct east also. Now we'll see what really happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just a genuine curb-stomping on the 12z GEM for W NY thru the LO Plain counties. If it or the NAM is right, there is going to be some 'mother of god' pictures making an appearence in this thread before this one is over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The Euro will be out soon and swing west I'm afraid.....hope I'm wrong for my sake. But I still think SYR to YUL could be it ..... My bet is that the GGEM and NAM are off to the far side and will correct east also. Now we'll see what really happens. The 12z ECM has initialized... Someone's life may be about to change lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I will take what the 12z GFS gives me verbatum and trade whatever else the rest of winter would bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Out to H30 / 1PM Saturday thus far. Light to moderate rain getting set to enter W NY. Anxiously awaiting Round 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 H36... 2ndary LP of 1012mb has formed over MS. 0z formed the LP on the MS / AL border... maybe a difference of 30-40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 H42... 1012mb over Birmingham AL. 0z had 1012mb LP positioned a little more southeast by this time.... maybe 40 mile difference again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 If the 2dary forms it could prolong the rain with a little backend snow in eastern NY. Looks like another rain event next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 WNY has flipped to snow by H48... N NY by H54. Moderate snows over this area... LP over interior NC / SC border. Little bit southwest / slower than 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 WNY has flipped to snow by H48... N NY by H54. Moderate snows over this area... LP over interior NC / SC border. Little bit southwest / slower than 0z... similar to the 12z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Snow line has reached the BGM-Herkimer-GFL line by H60. Moderate snows west of this line thru the Cntrl Srn Tier up thru the Tug / Dacks. Light snow back thru the Gen Valley, precip beginning to end west of there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 1004mb over Cntrl NJ at H66. Heavy snow (.50-1.00 qpf) BGM up thru the Western Cats into Lake George Region. Surface 32 line running over ALY, 850 0c still west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 LP near Long Island by H72. Moderate snows BGM thru the Cats / Dacks. The HV from ALY north is getting pounded (.50-.75 qpf). Locally .75+ QPF in the GFL area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 LP near CC by H78. Just some light snow over the HV, ending thereafter. Let me do a quick review, see if can toss out some more in-depth analysis. Maybe OL will chime in here to since he has the same access I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I will take what the 12z GFS gives me verbatum and trade whatever else the rest of winter would bring. I must have missed that run...were we solid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 For starters, the 12z ECM is not that close to the NAM, and its east of the GEM. I'd say it's a hybrid between the GEM and GFS base on a preliminary look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Thanks for the great play by play. So the Euro has not gone all the way to the NAM (Dark) side. hmmmmm I like my spot 25 miles west of ALB on the Euro. I wish it were Dr. NO like old...but we still can't take anything to the bank. LP near CC by H78. Just some light snow over the HV, ending thereafter. Let me do a quick review, see if can toss out some more in-depth analysis. Maybe OL will chime in here to since he has the same access I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Sounds to me like the Euro is a NAM GFS compromise? Thanks for the great play by play. So the Euro has not gone all the way to the NAM (Dark) side. hmmmmm I like my spot 25 miles west of ALB on the Euro. I wish it were Dr. NO like old...but we still can't take anything to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I must have missed that run...were we solid? Andy's 12-16" swath from last storm would once again be painted over us. A heavy wet snow this time though. If you take it out to the 20th....................We get more than 25" in between the raindrops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.