Tornado Girl Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Potentially dangerous setup on the 0z NAM for the Wrn 1/2 of C NY into N NY. Significant QPF with temp's +0°C at 850mb but <32°F at the surface. It's either a good bit of FzRa or PL, or both. Waiting on soundings, particularly for areas like ELM and SYR... The NAM also slows this thing to a crawl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 it's looking like Ottawa could be in for an ice storm ,although the precip seems to taper off a bit Sunday evening before intensifying again late Sunday night and Monday. Should be a fun Monday morning commute for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 0z GFS is nothin special. 2ndary LP too far east for impact... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 oz GFS is a BUST for Ottawa. Rain, rain and more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GFS joins the warm camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Quite a disparity between the NAM and GFS. By H84 on the NAM, LP still getting its act together to the south while inundating Upstate in QPF all while the GFS has already yanked the LP well east of the region with precip beginning to wrap up over CC and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 need a miracle now GFS looks just like the 12z euro/gem pretty much only the 00z euro can save us now, or its lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 need a miracle now GFS looks just like the 12z euro/gem pretty much only the 00z euro can save us now, or its lights out. Well, atleast the 12z Euro pasted E NY in 12+. The GFS just rips everyone off. Be nice if atleast part of our region emerged from this with their pockets lined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Lmao, the GEM just blanketed Upstate, outside of maybe the CD... Just can't make this storyline up... hopefully it has a fairy tell ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just ran my 05Z SmartModel output and focusing in on the Upstate NY areas, I am seeing several 6-8" snowfall accumulations on the 6 March time frame, with Binghampton with the highest forecasted amount of 8.8". Also showing areas in the South Bend and Cleveland areas with a potenial for Freezing precip. Any thoughts. Detailed city data has been uploaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Euro 2ndary tracks from interior NC-Cheasepeake Region of MD-Central NJ-Southern Shore of Central LI-Southeast Mass-Gulf of Maine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 0z Euro looks like 0z GEM based on a preliminary look, though the Euro tracks the secondary a bit further east. Everyone flips to snow with the 2ndary... starting out west by Sunday Morning / H60... and lastly in the CD by early Monday Morning / H84. Atleast moderate accumulations just about everywhere, though definately more in certain local's west of the Hudson. Still analyzing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Wow 06z NAM crushes western new york. Easy 1-2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUN NITE-MON...MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE FORECAST OPTIONS IS: OPTION ONE: RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN TAPERS OFF TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON (00Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM). SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS OPTION. OPTION TWO: FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE WAVE MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PCPN ENDING QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD DAY ON MONDAY (00Z GFS). OPTION THREE: FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A WAVE FORMS ALONG IT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST...KEEPING MILD AIR OVER THE REGION...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY (06Z NAM). HAVE CHOSEN TO FORECAST USING OPTION ONE...SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS THE MOST IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS ALY FORECASTS. OPTION ONE MAY ACTUALLY PROLONG PCPN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER BEGINING MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA RIDGES SOUTHWARD INTO THE ALY FORECAST AREA. THE DRY WEATHER RESULTING FROM THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. Does anybody really know what time it is?? LOL this thing is a met's nightmare......and it is going to be miserable to be working in. I may have to goto the firehouse to get the portable pumps back into service.I probably should just in case but then again.....I did uncover my motorcycle in the garage yesterday and started prepping it from storage.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Wow 06z NAM crushes western new york. Easy 1-2 feet that track shown on nam reminds me of that mid december storm track that was shown on one 18z gfs run which annihilated wny with blizzard like conditions with 3ft+,jus sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Wow 06z NAM crushes western new york. Easy 1-2 feet good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hi Rochester! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I just can't get excited about the 72HR NAM, but I want to!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I just can't get excited about the 72HR NAM, but I want to!! pretty much my thoughts. await the rest of the model suite before analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 latest GFS is back to the colder solution. Ice storm followed by moderate snow in Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The GFS and NAM are on TOTALLY different sides here.. 6z NAM was just an absolute outrage, and there is no way buffalo is seeing 2 feet of snow.. IF, and if a secondary forms in the APPS, i could see a 6-8" max occuring up here, kind of like the 12z NAM is showing. GFS shows nada for Western NY, and actually brings snow to Albany and points northeast due to a COASTAL LOW GFS -- rainstorm -> secondary low forms off the coastline and tracks along the coast. I-95 Rainstorm, CD and North Country Snowstorm NAM- rainstorm passes-> secondary low forms on a slow moving front in the apps and tracks N/NE, absolutely crushing rochester and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 it's looking like Ottawa could be in for an ice storm ,although the precip seems to taper off a bit Sunday evening before intensifying again late Sunday night and Monday. Should be a fun Monday morning commute for many. ALA NAM, Ottawa gets crushed with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Evidence would suggest (IMO) that the GFS is trending west and the snowstorm ends up being west of the CD..odds on SYR to YUL...... 0Z Euro was more west, 12Z RGEM looks more like the NAM than the GFS. Some compromise between the NAM and GFS maybe. The GFS and NAM are on TOTALLY different sides here.. 6z NAM was just an absolute outrage, and there is no way buffalo is seeing 2 feet of snow.. IF, and if a secondary forms in the APPS, i could see a 6-8" max occuring up here, kind of like the 12z NAM is showing. GFS shows nada for Western NY, and actually brings snow to Albany and points northeast due to a COASTAL LOW GFS -- rainstorm -> secondary low forms off the coastline and tracks along the coast. I-95 Rainstorm, CD and North Country Snowstorm NAM- rainstorm passes-> secondary low forms on a slow moving front in the apps and tracks N/NE, absolutely crushing rochester and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I am very curious to hear Andy's thoughts on this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Evidence would suggest (IMO) that the GFS is trending west and the snowstorm ends up being west of the CD..odds on SYR to YUL...... 0Z Euro was more west, 12Z RGEM looks more like the NAM than the GFS. Some compromise between the NAM and GFS maybe. i feel like climo would suggest otherwise, and would more resemble the GFS solution. the NAM is suggesting a pretty anomalous setup, which is close to what the models were depicting earlier in the week, which seemed outrageous at the time. but the latest RGEM at 48 does support the NAM, but note the NAM has backed off its peak run (at h5) of last nights 00z, the past 2 runs. it could be in the process of de-amplifying its trough and forming a compromise with the euro. the GFS had that blip run last night where it lost the second storm, but its struggling with the 2nd storm phase/timing now. not sure what to make of all this to be honest. will have to await to see what the euro/GGEM/ukie do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hmmm well I will assume that Andy won't go with the 12Z GFS and forecast 18 inches of cement for the CD. HAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 lol Can you imagine if an unprepared ottawa got 18-20" out of this, as the NAM seems to epict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Well flip a coin as to who gets it.... but they are all starting to show some lucky corridor getting crushed pretty good. lol Can you imagine if an unprepared ottawa got 18-20" out of this, as the NAM seems to epict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hmmm well I will assume that Andy won't go with the 12Z GFS and forecast 18 inches of cement for the CD. HAH I am sure that is a pretty safe bet....I cannot imagine 18 inches of cement/slop.What a nightmare that could be.....I wonder though,what would be worse an 1"+ of ice or even 16+" of slop...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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