Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Blah, 12z Euro continues to be a buzzkill like the GEM. Drives a primary into Quebec, no real secondary development like the GFS thru H84. Just a nice rainstorm with perhaps a spritz of wintry mix at the start over N NY / Upper E NY. euro continues to have timing and energy differences from run- to - run. as such i will stick with the GFS for now. i dont expect much improvement in spread until 12z tomorrow.....and that will be with regards to the inittial waves along the bz the secondary questions may linger beyond that, but climo suggests it will be through eastern NY and new england. it would take quite a remarkable h5 setup to get it back towards the west (like previous runs several days ago....which were of course remarkable) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I felt like the NAM extrapolated was gonna be more west versus the GFS. Maybe west of the Euro (listening to people's descriptions of the Euro). euro continues to have timing and energy differences from run- to - run. as such i will stick with the GFS for now. i dont expect much improvement in spread until 12z tomorrow.....and that will be with regards to the inittial waves along the bz the secondary questions may linger beyond that, but climo suggests it will be through eastern NY and new england. it would take quite a remarkable h5 setup to get it back towards the west (like previous runs several days ago....which were of course remarkable) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I felt like the NAM extrapolated was gonna be more west versus the GFS. Maybe west of the Euro (listening to people's descriptions of the Euro). Don't put away your snow shoes yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I'm kind of hoping for the heaviest precip to be done by late Sunday afternoon, although I still am rooting for snow. The freezing rain I could honestly do without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 When I looked at the model runs earlier I didn't much that would change my mind on how the storm will progress .....Except Friday will have less in the way of front end snow....and PCPN looks to be ZR, PL, with a little SN at times Friday night. But hopefully the FROPA will be quick enough that this won't be an issue. The GFS and NAM have most of the PCPN coming in Saturday night and Sunday. But regardless we will see quite a bit of RA so flooding will be a big concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 after reviewing the afternoon models, the GFS remains really the only model cold enough to support a singificant snowfall at this time, especially in ottawa. the rest have some front and back snow, but nothing too impressive, as its mostly rain with the chance of singificant FRZRA possible. the models have trended significantly towards the GFS but not far enough east. and as they have trended, they have come into good agreement forming 2 camps.....GFS vs the rest (which are now closer to the original GFS idea). so its consistency vs agreement. i think from here, we will end up seeing the 2 camps meet in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Screw it all.........I will be rooting for an epic ice storm. I know it has no way of happening( A total ice storm) but hey at least if it's gonna be a mess for flooding anyway it may as well make it fun too! Edit to add my apologies to Andy and others if it causes you more work!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Like I said ..its all down to luck. There will apparently be two waves along this quasi stationary front (edges slowly east) and someone gets lucky on the western strip of decent qpf behind each wave. Now #1 is apparently gonna deliver its good snow from like Muskoka to Pembroke and maybe Mont Laurier etc..... not that people further east can't end as a period of snow. #2 maybe delivers it's best snow well east and northeast of that. In between is a sucker zone that gets lots of rain, but hardly any snowfall. after reviewing the afternoon models, the GFS remains really the only model cold enough to support a singificant snowfall at this time, especially in ottawa. the rest have some front and back snow, but nothing too impressive, as its mostly rain with the chance of singificant FRZRA possible. the models have trended significantly towards the GFS but not far enough east. and as they have trended, they have come into good agreement forming 2 camps.....GFS vs the rest (which are now closer to the original GFS idea). so its consistency vs agreement. i think from here, we will end up seeing the 2 camps meet in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Screw it all.........I will be rooting for an epic ice storm. I know it has no way of happening( A total ice storm) but hey at least if it's gonna be a mess for flooding anyway it may as well make it fun too! If the 12z Euro is right you will be digging out from underneath 12+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yep the Euro is our model that puts us in the lucky spot. ..But the 0Z run could shift that out to UCA or over to CON..... If the 12z Euro is right you will be digging out from underneath 12+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yep the Euro is our model that puts us in the lucky spot. ..But the 0Z run could shift that out to UCA or over to CON..... Check your mailbox.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Winter Weather Advisory from BUF for the southern 2 tiers for FzRa / PL until Noon Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Updated HWO & AFD from ALY reflects the 12z ECM... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 403 PM EST THU MAR 3 2011 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUN-MON...MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES...CONCERNING FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND ANY WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE 12Z/GFS MOST PROGRESSIVE...AND THE ECMWF/NAM LEAST PROGRESSIVE...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE LEANED A BIT CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z GEFS...AND 12Z ECMWF...WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO POTENTIALLY FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION...ESP SHOULD THE ECMWF PROVE CORRECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 411 PM EST THU MAR 3 2011 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 GEFS runs vascillating between 2nd system on Monday either being an event for ENY or farther east. 12z GEFS is both a bit weaker and east. 00z GEFS from 03/03 was good for a thump of rain to paste with perhaps all paste for Hilltowns and Catskills and MAYBE areas to the north. My take on the EC is that when compared to all the other NWPS is that it is perhaps TOO slow with #2 and too strong as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 KALB SUN-MON...MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCECONTINUES...CONCERNING FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND ANY WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE 12Z/GFS MOST PROGRESSIVE...AND THE ECMWF/NAM LEAST PROGRESSIVE...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE LEANED A BIT CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z GEFS...AND 12Z ECMWF...WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO POTENTIALLY FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION...ESP SHOULD THE ECMWF PROVE CORRECT. SO...HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. THEN...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR SUN NT ACROSS THE REGION...AND ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THROUGH MON MORNING...MAINLY FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITHIN VALLEY LOCALES FOR SUN NT. CONFIDENCE LEVELS REMAIN VERY LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...SO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO FORECAST ARE LIKELY AS THE EVENT NEARS. MON NT-WED...SOME GEFS MEMBERS ACTUALLY KEEP FEATURES EVEN SLOWER...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP TO LINGER WELL INTO MON NT OR EVEN TUE. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MON NT. THEREAFTER...EXPECT FAIR AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR TUE-WED...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 gfs is nuts.....really developing the second low, you could see it headed that way early at h5 i dont know if thats a lot of ice or heavy snow for ottawa - montreal it is ticking warmer though run by run, albeit slowly. a couple more ticks and it will be in the rain camp. id like to see the models at 00z move the trough position eastwards. of course what i want, and what happens, are 2 entirely different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 gfs is nuts.....really developing the second low, you could see it headed that way early at h5 i dont know if thats a lot of ice or heavy snow for ottawa - montreal it is ticking warmer though run by run, albeit slowly. a couple more ticks and it will be in the rain camp. id like to see the models at 00z move the trough position eastwards. of course what i want, and what happens, are 2 entirely different things. I'm with you wanting snow for CYOW and CYUL etc...one more big storm say 30 + cm of snow and then by mid March it can all magically go away overnight. Without getting too technical, what are your thoughts about amount and timing of precip in our neck of the woods...where do you see the snow/rain line setting up? As always, your postings add loads to this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 gfs is nuts.....really developing the second low, you could see it headed that way early at h5 i dont know if thats a lot of ice or heavy snow for ottawa - montreal it is ticking warmer though run by run, albeit slowly. a couple more ticks and it will be in the rain camp. id like to see the models at 00z move the trough position eastwards. of course what i want, and what happens, are 2 entirely different things. That run was absolutely ugly for our region. Perhaps biggest ice storm since Boxing Day 2009? Plus, it has heavy precip right when I have a social gathering planned for on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I'm with you wanting snow for CYOW and CYUL etc...one more big storm say 30 + cm of snow and then by mid March it can all magically go away overnight. Without getting too technical, what are your thoughts about amount and timing of precip in our neck of the woods...where do you see the snow/rain line setting up? As always, your postings add loads to this forum very difficult call because the split camps. i said id wait till 12z tomorrow hopefully we have concensus by then. roughly, precip should come in tomorrow night as snow/ice pellets and change over to frzra and then to rain saturday morning. this is where the GFS diverges....its quicker to cool us back off and changes us back over to heavy ice saturday evening and then to heavy snow sunday morning, perhaps quite a bit of each, accompained by rapidly falling temperatures and strong winds all day sunday. snow ends monday around noon. sunday would be a total write off on the GFS. all the rest of the models have us staying as rain through saturday night and into the morning, and then a change to some ice and light snow accums sunday afternoon before ending in the evening. gfs would be a major storm, the others are just a rain event primarily- big difference. GFS would be in excess of 15cm of snow and likely a big hit of ice too. keep an eye on that thermometer tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 That run was absolutely ugly for our region. Perhaps biggest ice storm since Boxing Day 2009? Plus, it has heavy precip right when I have a social gathering planned for on Sunday. given that all the models cool us off sunday afternoon at minimum, i think at the least there will be some inclement weather on sunday afternoon in the form of light ice and light snow on the backend of the rain, maybe only a little but there should be some with a freezup. it may not be anything too serious in the afternoon and evening though if there is a lot of standing water from heavy rain. tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 verbatim. ala BUFKIT soundings for KBUF.. 18z GFS shows 6.3 inches of snow on Sunday, with the 18z NAM coming in with 3.5"... NWS going with 100% chance of snow on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 But below 10% probs for 8+"...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Wow, draw a line from just west of BGM thru the Dacks on the 0z NAM. Lots of frozen precip along / west of that line from hours 72-84. It looks like all ice in C NY thru most of N NY. Mainly snow in W NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 kinda crazy but the NAM is this close to bringing the insane solutions from earleir in the week back on the table......the ones that blizzarded WNY, crippled ottawa, and dropped incredible amounts of qpf on the rest of us. all i can say is ................... WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Wow, lots of frozen precip from I-81 west on the 0z NAM from hours 72-84. Looks like a lot of ice in C NY. the h5 is right there with those old runs from earlier in the week....... this could get real interesting if some other models start showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 kinda crazy but the NAM is this close to bringing the insane solutions from earleir in the week back on the table......the ones that blizzarded WNY, crippled ottawa, and dropped incredible amounts of qpf on the rest of us. all i can say is ................... WOW. I would love for this run to come true. Probably a solid 8 inches if not more with strong winds and falling temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Wow, slow moving juicy system with some good energy at H5 at 84 hours. This one could just be getting going as a snow producer on Monday. Extrapolating looks like it could keep cranking into Monday night. Definitely has my attention. 0C at 850 is still being pushed west at 84 hour, but coastal will hopefully get cranking and heights will start to fall. Does look like a lot of ice in DAKS from 72-84 hours verbatim. These slow movers can be fun. kinda crazy but the NAM is this close to bringing the insane solutions from earleir in the week back on the table......the ones that blizzarded WNY, crippled ottawa, and dropped incredible amounts of qpf on the rest of us. all i can say is ................... WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Potentially dangerous setup on the 0z NAM for the Wrn 1/2 of C NY into N NY. Significant QPF with temp's +0°C at 850mb but <32°F at the surface. It's either a good bit of FzRa or PL, or both. Waiting on soundings, particularly for areas like ELM and SYR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Wow, slow moving juicy system with some good energy at H5 at 84 hours. This one could just be getting going as a snow producer on Monday. Extrapolating looks like it could keep cranking into Monday night. Definitely has my attention. 0C at 850 is still being pushed west at 84 hour, but coastal will hopefully get cranking and heights will start to fall. Does look like a lot of ice in DAKS from 72-84 hours verbatim. These slow movers can be fun. yeah its a beautiful thing at 84. unfortunately its the NAM at 84 but im still stunned to see a model put that back on the table this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Lol, the 0z NAM MOS is printing out PL as the dominate p-type vs ZR from H69 onward at KELM. 1.22" QPF falling as PL would make for an interesting event... Despite a surface temp of 30°F at KSYR, the MOS is indicating RA as the dominant p-type. Chyea... right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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