CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Alright, since W NY changes over around H84, I wanted a QPF map to include them that also runs thru the end of the storm in the east. Thus, some of this falls as rain outside of W NY, but still... Relevent QPF from H84-126... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 How are the Susquehanna River points looking up there as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 How are the Susquehanna River points looking up there as of now? Bookmark this site. Very useful for checking the lastest river levels across the BGM cwa... http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 GEFS Mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 One more thing...you all expecting rain or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 One more thing...you all expecting rain or snow? Everyone is going to see atleast some rain, though amounts are still unknown. As far as Upstate is concerned... any accumulating snow chances are likely going to hinge on how close any secondary low pressure tracks to the region. The models are all over the place on the latter idea, so how much snow.... if any is still wildly up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 KALB BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO EXPECT ONLY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE TEMPS REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG IT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ALL AREAS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY. STEADY PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT CHOSE TO LOWER POPS TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS...AND CHANGE PCPN WORDING TO SHOWERS (MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SOUTHEAST AREAS COULD WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS). LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH A GOOD BET AS THE TIME FRAME GETS CLOSER...THEN IT WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTER EVENT WITH HEADLINES FOR SNOWFALL ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 good to see all the warmer models trending towards the cooler, more consistent GFS.....though even the GFS gets the surface warm enough to support rain for a time. also good to see the reemergence of a more potent secondary, somewhat. however, there are still important hurdles, including the ejection of the western energy tomorrow morning from that big gyre off the BC coast. as a result, plenty of variabilty still to come today likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 That looks like a pretty nice set up for Western NY to southern Quebec at 84 hours - as the low finally gets ready to wrap up and make its final move. Probably a soaking rain here - maybe ending as a some snow. Verbatim that is..... good to see all the warmer models trending towards the cooler, more consistent GFS.....though even the GFS gets the surface warm enough to support rain for a time. also good to see the reemergence of a more potent secondary, somewhat. however, there are still important hurdles, including the ejection of the western energy tomorrow morning from that big gyre off the BC coast. as a result, plenty of variabilty still to come today likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 That looks like a pretty nice set up for Western NY to southern Quebec at 84 hours - as the low finally gets ready to wrap up and make its final move. Probably a soaking rain here - maybe ending as a some snow. Verbatim that is..... Probably a solid 4-6" advisory event for here as it looks now, ratios wont be too high since the air will be right around freezing, probably right around the standard 10:1 It's going to be close though, if the frontal boundary takes a bit longer then expected we'll see more rain and much less snow if it moves a bit faster then maybe well see a little more 5-8" Very early , but its definitly beginning to catch my eye. I'm now intrested in the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 That looks like a pretty nice set up for Western NY to southern Quebec at 84 hours - as the low finally gets ready to wrap up and make its final move. Probably a soaking rain here - maybe ending as a some snow. Verbatim that is..... hopefully over the next 24 hours, we see that second storm become more of a factor. right now, the models are halfway back to that crazy solution they had when this all started. they just dont dig the trough far enough south to give it enough time to develop properly, as those earlier runs. now its kinda in between, but a lot better than what they were showing yesterday afternoon. the op Euro is stil flopping around at h5, so nothing is in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Probably a solid 4-6" advisory event for here as it looks now, ratios wont be too high since the air will be right around freezing, probably right around the standard 10:1 It's going to be close though, if the frontal boundary takes a bit longer then expected we'll see more rain and much less snow if it moves a bit faster then maybe well see a little more 5-8" Very early , but its definitly beginning to catch my eye. I'm now intrested in the 12z GFS. why not? all the latest models are trending towards the GFS, which has been the most consistent. check out the NAM from 00z and compared to 12z today, its laughable how much the whole evolution and setup has changed towards the GFS. the euro is floppinig around like a fish out of water too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I worked my way through the upstream gauges of the Susquehanna...yikes, some of them are already decently high and are forecast to move towards "action stage" by Sunday Morning and that's still 12+ hours until the very heavy precip. Could be ugly if some of you guys warm up to the 40s and get the heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 why not? all the latest models are trending towards the GFS, which has been the most consistent. check out the NAM from 00z and compared to 12z today, its laughable how much the whole evolution and setup has changed towards the GFS. the euro is floppinig around like a fish out of water too. Sorry, meant to say now. Not not. lol .I'm very intrested in the GFS , because like you said it has been the most consistent for this storm thus far , and the other models are trending towards it , including the 12z NAM. GFS is lookin sharp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Sorry, meant to say now. Not not. lol . I'm very intrested in the GFS , because like you said it has been the most consistent for this storm thus far , and the other models are trending towards it , including the 12z NAM. GFS is lookin sharp funny how one letter can change the entire tone of your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 funny how one letter can change the entire tone of your post. Haha yes. 12z GFS is pretty similar , but it has toned down the moisture after temps become cold enough for snow. Only about .30" QPF or so I'd estimate. O well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Basically looks like a ~6 hour (Give or take, probably longer north of ALY) window of opportunity for accumulating snow within a trailing deformation zone that strengthens as it sweeps across Upstate Sunday Afternoon-Night. 12z run centers the heaviest amounts from C NY eastward and there could be some +SN rates in there if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The GFS taken verbatim is heavy cold rain here as the low moves toward Long Island and then maybe an inch or two of snow as it shuts off very fast behind the system. It is more of a wave along a slowly eastward progressing front than anything. We can hope that the thump of precip. would flip us to snow a few hours sooner which could add several inches of wet snow...but taken literally the model drops the bulk of it as cold rain. Whatever happens will be a nice novelty, but this whole system is going to do a lot more damage than good to the existing snow pack. So I'm gonna get a few snow shoe excursions in between now and Saturday afternoon - knowing it may be curtains then. Basically looks like a ~6 hour (Give or take, probably longer north of ALY) window of opportunity for accumulating snow within a trailing deformation zone that strengthens as it sweeps across Upstate Sunday Afternoon-Night. 12z run centers the heaviest amounts from C NY eastward and there could be some +SN rates in there if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The GFS taken verbatim is heavy cold rain here as the low moves toward Long Island and then maybe an inch or two of snow as it shuts off very fast behind the system. It is more of a wave along a slowly eastward progressing front than anything. We can hope that the thump of precip. would flip us to snow a few hours sooner which could add several inches of wet snow...but taken literally the model drops the bulk of it as cold rain. Whatever happens will be a nice novelty, but this whole system is going to do a lot more damage than good to the existing snow pack. So I'm gonna get a few snow shoe excursions in between now and Saturday afternoon - knowing it may be curtains then. Yeah, just looked at the SV regional / zoomed-in maps in 3-hour increments and compared the QPF against the location of Critical Thickness / Surface 32°F / 850mb 0°C lines etc. I'd say just about everyone outside of the CD gets .25-.50 QPF... perhaps as much as .75 in the Dacks / Upper HV... that falls as snow. The CD itself and points S & E are the last ones to change over, and looks like .1-.25 QPF as snow. But still a ways to go to hammer this one out, very fickle setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Taking a blend of the 12z NAM and GFS it looks like about 1 to 2 inches of rain, then the cold front moves through , and we get into a bit of a weak deformation zone of snow dropping about 2-3 inches in the Western counties and about 3-5 in the central counties. I'll put out my thoughts in a map in a couple minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 the GEM is pretty much just a rainstorm for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 the GEM is pretty much just a rainstorm for everyone Looks like some backend snow possibilities across the region, but not as robust as the GFS. Anyway, have a look at H156 thru 180 on the GEM. I'm trying to think back as to when I last saw a similar evolution, but can't quite seem to put my finger on it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 the GEM is pretty much just a rainstorm for everyone By everyone are you also referring to those of us up here in Canuckistan? or just those in NYS etc.? I'm still hoping for a mainly snow event here in Ottawa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Looks like some backend snow possibilities across the region, but not as robust as the GFS. Anyway, have a look at H156 thru 180 on the GEM. I'm trying to think back as to when I last saw a similar evolution, but can't quite seem to put my finger on it.... lol yeah ive been notcing that too but i havent seen any model try to develop any seoncdaries yet,, so far everything has been a single main storm NW of us so just rain it would seem.....for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Blah, 12z Euro continues to be a buzzkill like the GEM. Drives a primary into Quebec, no real secondary development like the GFS thru H84. Just a nice rainstorm with perhaps a spritz of wintry mix at the start over N NY / Upper E NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 By everyone are you also referring to those of us up here in Canuckistan? or just those in NYS etc.? I'm still hoping for a mainly snow event here in Ottawa? verbatim for ottawa, it would be a little snow turning to frzra (maybe a fair bit) to heavy rain to some backside snow (light accum) right now, all the models seem to indicate that rain will enter the equation at some point......how much will be the frozen variety will be the big question!...and how much, since less rain will mean more snow. this is one of those times where the temperature tomorrow and tomorrow night will be the key to the entire process. if it goes above 0, it can end up getting difficult to scour out that +1C type air for many hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Blah, 12z Euro continues to be a buzzkill like the GEM. Drives a primary into Quebec, no real secondary development like the GFS thru H84. Just a nice rainstorm with perhaps a spritz of wintry mix at the start over N NY / Upper E NY. Alright I spoke too soon. Slow moving 2ndary LP tracks from E VA n-ne just south of LI / CC and into the GOM. The ALY cwa from the CD south and east thru interior New England is smothered in concrete H90-120. QPF is 1.00+ and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 For any WNY'ers out there... THESE ARE PRELIMINARY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.