CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 A question....since I just started following models....are models usually this variable in forecasts or has this been a season of exceptions? I mean, I have seen model forecasts change in very short ranges. Do medium range forecasts usually pan out as modeled...in other words, is there a "days range" for certain models in which they obtain a reasonable level of accuracy in predictions? Yeah, they can vary quite a bit, especially beyond 3 days. No real exception this year. Though will say, the GFS pretty much nailed the last storm (Feb 24-25 thread) from 120 hours out. If you check the original post in that thread, you'll see that it's solution at T-120 hours was by FAR the closest to reality when all was said and done. Yeah there was minor deviations in it's solution between H 120 and when the storm moved thru, but those are to be expected. Overall it did a pretty good job with that particular storm, but that is not always the case. Some models handle certain patterns better than others and each has it's own biases. Usually the best thing to do is take a blend of the different solutions as a means of minimizing the margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GGEM is basically a rainstorm for everyone....no second storm, total yawnfest. so far the GFS/ukie/GEm have all trended towards losing or not having the second main storm which really makes for the qpf in one area to be way excessive. as we have been talking, these 'big' scenarios usually dont pan out and often disappear entirely, or shift so that its more spread out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Normally when the GFS has a solution like this it doesn't pan out. We should see some snow Friday. Saturday the Precip (rain) won't be as bad as it will be on Saturday night into Sunday. where we sould see more in the way of heavy rain with some snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 the euro is essentially a carbon copy of the GFS. the bz continues to shift SE and now cold enough to support primarily snow up here it looks on the free maps. its amazing this SE trend this year....how much further will it go? second storm ls there, but like the GFS its further east, its actually more of a new england system. but that 120+ hrs out thus the way excessive qpf numbers are gone. as it is now, 1.75 -3.25 inches liquid equivalent is the range across our entire forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yeah, they can vary quite a bit, especially beyond 3 days. No real exception this year. Though will say, the GFS pretty much nailed the last storm (Feb 24-25 thread) from 120 hours out. If you check the original post in that thread, you'll see that it's solution at T-120 hours was by FAR the closest to reality when all was said and done. Yeah there was minor deviations in it's solution between H 120 and when the storm moved thru, but those are to be expected. Overall it did a pretty good job with that particular storm, but that is not always the case. Some models handle certain patterns better than others and each has it's own biases. Usually the best thing to do is take a blend of the different solutions as a means of minimizing the margin of error. GGEM is basically a rainstorm for everyone....no second storm, total yawnfest. so far the GFS/ukie/GEm have all trended towards losing or not having the second main storm which really makes for the qpf in one area to be way excessive. as we have been talking, these 'big' scenarios usually dont pan out and often disappear entirely, or shift so that its more spread out. GFS has been consistent and good for a while now and has given the EC a run for its $$$. As for wx or not 2nd storm happens that still remains to be seen. GEFS 06z from 3/1 runs said no but 3/1 00z run said yes. Looking at 3/02/00z GEFS ensemble you could argue that its back on. In looking at the 250 ensemble wind data for day 5 the upper air trough is back across the Cntl GL south to the GoM so I would figure the H5 trough axis is along the Appalachians. Flow at 250 is SSW so I figure the front is stalled along the EC from Western New England SSW to near the Outer Banks with the low on it off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 A solid inch of QPF across WNY after 850s drop below zero from the first storm on the 6z GFS. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/06/gfs_namer_120_precip_p36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yeah, they can vary quite a bit, especially beyond 3 days. No real exception this year. Though will say, the GFS pretty much nailed the last storm (Feb 24-25 thread) from 120 hours out. If you check the original post in that thread, you'll see that it's solution at T-120 hours was by FAR the closest to reality when all was said and done. Yeah there was minor deviations in it's solution between H 120 and when the storm moved thru, but those are to be expected. Overall it did a pretty good job with that particular storm, but that is not always the case. Some models handle certain patterns better than others and each has it's own biases. Usually the best thing to do is take a blend of the different solutions as a means of minimizing the margin of error. Or look at/use ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 the bz continues to shift SE and now cold enough to support primarily snow up here it looks on the free maps. I hope your snow predictions hold true for the weekend in the Ottawa/Montreal corridor but EC has Ottawa at +1, +4 and +9 for Friday Saturday Sunday and EC has Cornwall at 0, +6 and +11 for the same days...the NWS Burlington has Massena at 0, +5 and +5 for the same days. Are the models you are looking at ahead of the forecasts that EC and the NWS use and are trending cooler on each run? I hope this is the same sort of trend that we saw about a week ago when they said Monday in Ottawa would be +13 and rain and we got snow and around the freezing point. Your thoughts are always appreciated..please be kind to me...I'm not an expert model analysis interpretor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 A solid inch of QPF across WNY after 850s drop below zero from the first storm on the 6z GFS. http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p36.gif KBUF seems to think it will be all rain (probably based on 0z): DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF FRONT...SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN MORNING...ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. Hoping for a SE trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 KBUF seems to think it will be all rain (probably based on 0z): DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF FRONT...SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN MORNING...ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. Hoping for a SE trend! 06z has sure SE trend, let's hope 12z stays like the 06z, id be happy with a warm 50 degree day with an inch of rain foloowed by a cold front then 4-8 inches of backend snow with whipping winds =] Buffalos already over its entire season total so any snow we get now is just bonus snow. =] BTW, I'm so busy looking at the models for this storm and being caught up in this storm that I didnt even realize its snowing outside right now , and pretty good at that , radar looks good for a little while, its nice to see snow. Hows it in Rochester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Hows it in Rochester? Same, quick heavy burst for about 20 mins and now sunny...just a fresh coating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 the euro is essentially a carbon copy of the GFS. the bz continues to shift SE and now cold enough to support primarily snow up here it looks on the free maps. its amazing this SE trend this year....how much further will it go? second storm ls there, but like the GFS its further east, its actually more of a new england system. but that 120+ hrs out thus the way excessive qpf numbers are gone. as it is now, 1.75 -3.25 inches liquid equivalent is the range across our entire forum. OL, would you say that the GEM has some problems, i.e. a warm bias. I mean, it hasn't been doing a good job lately. Interestingly, a link was posted in the JB resignation thread describing how the UK MEt has busted their winter seasonal forecasts the past few years due to a warm bias and because (the author of the article believes) that they start out with a bias towards AGW. I onder if the same could be said for Environment Canada and their model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 OL, would you say that the GEM has some problems, i.e. a warm bias. I mean, it hasn't been doing a good job lately. Interestingly, a link was posted in the JB resignation thread describing how the UK MEt has busted their winter seasonal forecasts the past few years due to a warm bias and because (the author of the article believes) that they start out with a bias towards AGW. I onder if the same could be said for Environment Canada and their model? I have an even bigger problem with The Weather Network (especially their web site) and how they sometimes say that the weather will be 'light snow' but 20 cm and then another day will be listed as 'heavy snow' and 5 cm...other times they have 'snow' listed and the overall temp is not forecast to get below freezing...somewhere, something is out of synch. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/CAON0332 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/on-118_metric_e.html As you can see for Sunday, TWN has a high of +1 with 1 mm of rain and EC has a high of +9 and 'rain'....I'd like the TWN temps and the EC forecast of lots of precip..hopefully of the type that you have to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I hope your snow predictions hold true for the weekend in the Ottawa/Montreal corridor but EC has Ottawa at +1, +4 and +9 for Friday Saturday Sunday and EC has Cornwall at 0, +6 and +11 for the same days...the NWS Burlington has Massena at 0, +5 and +5 for the same days. Are the models you are looking at ahead of the forecasts that EC and the NWS use and are trending cooler on each run? I hope this is the same sort of trend that we saw about a week ago when they said Monday in Ottawa would be +13 and rain and we got snow and around the freezing point. Your thoughts are always appreciated..please be kind to me...I'm not an expert model analysis interpretor. everything is trending cooler other than the canadian GEM model which is why env canada forecast is so warm. hard to say with certainty though what is going to happen with ptype. but with both the GFS + Euro shifting the colder air S and E, i'm leaning that way as the GEM has a warm bias. if env canada used those models, there would be all ice and snow in the forecast. ice could be a definite big player, keep that in mind too. basically we are looking at a slow moving, long axis of precipitation extending from the Gulf of mexico to the northeast over the weekend that moves eastward. where it lines up INITIALLY determines who gets the most snow. plus whether there will be any second storm or not.....big question mark. i dont think we will have a great idea until tomorrow around 12z runs, to be honest. usually these things dont end up as great as advertised as we get closer, so brace yourself for that possibility also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 squall line coming thru Madison Co now, NWS posted warnings about it, here's channel 9 radar, shows lightning towards Lafayette? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 OL, would you say that the GEM has some problems, i.e. a warm bias. I mean, it hasn't been doing a good job lately. Interestingly, a link was posted in the JB resignation thread describing how the UK MEt has busted their winter seasonal forecasts the past few years due to a warm bias and because (the author of the article believes) that they start out with a bias towards AGW. I onder if the same could be said for Environment Canada and their model? yes it does. it tends to overamplify energy causing more westward solutions. it really has had a terrible year. now im talking of the GGEM (the low res model which goes out to 10 days). the RGEM is a hires models that only goes out to 48 hours and can be excellent. what i would love to see is Env Canada extend the RGEM out to 72 hours. but i guess there is not enough money or enough public interest in Canada to want reasonably good forecasts out to 3 days. but having said that, we cannot totally rule out the GGEM just yet. the energy still is offshore and the whole pattern is getting setup and aligned. 100 miles either way and you can be screwed. in fact, i noted the GFS is trending even more SE! another 100 miles and you may miss out almost entirely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS has been consistent and good for a while now and has given the EC a run for its $$$. As for wx or not 2nd storm happens that still remains to be seen. GEFS 06z from 3/1 runs said no but 3/1 00z run said yes. Looking at 3/02/00z GEFS ensemble you could argue that its back on. In looking at the 250 ensemble wind data for day 5 the upper air trough is back across the Cntl GL south to the GoM so I would figure the H5 trough axis is along the Appalachians. Flow at 250 is SSW so I figure the front is stalled along the EC from Western New England SSW to near the Outer Banks with the low on it off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. i agree with this Andy and you won't see me arguing it. my personal feeling for up here this season, the GFS has been the most reliable model. its been great. very low on the false alarm scale, which is important to me. good to hear there is still uncertainty on the 2nd storm. keep us posted on your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Thank you for the replies to my question! These forums are a good place to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GEM trends SE quite a bit, defintely colder for up here but still borderline. you can see in the upper levels where it could try and get a second storm going compared to its previous runs and the GFS, but it doesnt quite. given how much its varying though, no sense puting too much stock into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 euro is a dud warmer, drier and faster.....the trifecta of boredom not much consistency here, gfs seems to be the most consistent right now. even then, it wont be until 12z tomorrow that we can really get a solid idea for what will happen over the wekeend IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 euro is a dud warmer, drier and faster.....the trifecta of boredom not much consistency here, gfs seems to be the most consistent right now. even then, it wont be until 12z tomorrow that we can really get a solid idea for what will happen over the wekeend IMO. Yeah, nothin' to see here. 12z Euro basically gives everyone between 1.0-1.75 QPF (heaviest in W and N NY, Lightest in SC NY), and it's pretty much rain everywhere until the very end when 850's / Surface begin to cool along / behind the front. Maybe inch or two of snow at the end... maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS and UK from 03-02-12z trending the same on 2nd storm more east more of a CNE/ENE (especially interior/elevation) threat. For now will watch before I play down though 06z GEFS did trend a bit more in this direction. (UK actually for 24 hours now has been going this route anyway). Mar-Apr are pretty good months for the Crazy UnKle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 There was talk on the NE thread that the low level cold may come down and turn things to ice - moreso than snow. I haven't seen the ECM, but especially here in ENY ...cold can very easily siphon down from Quebec and even on the backside of low #1 it's deceptive to rely on the 850 temps in terms of FZRA. Yeah, nothin' to see here. 12z Euro basically gives everyone between 1.0-1.75 QPF (heaviest in W and N NY, Lightest in SC NY), and it's pretty much rain everywhere until the very end when 850's / Surface begin to cool along / behind the front. Maybe inch or two of snow at the end... maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 KBUF is leaving the frozen possibility on the table: WILL WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CHANGING THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW OR POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HERE WILL BE CRUCIAL WITH ANY SOUTHEAST BIAS FAVORING A GREATER RISK FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 There was talk on the NE thread that the low level cold may come down and turn things to ice - moreso than snow. I haven't seen the ECM, but especially here in ENY ...cold can very easily siphon down from Quebec and even on the backside of low #1 it's deceptive to rely on the 850 temps in terms of FZRA. they are talking about the second low which is too far east for most, but may brush you area. there will be some cold air for sure on the backside, but the question is whether there would be precip to take advantage. the euro was pretty boring for most, in that regards. it was much faster with exiting the precip towards new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 they are talking about the second low which is too far east for most, but may brush you area. there will be some cold air for sure on the backside, but the question is whether there would be precip to take advantage. the euro was pretty boring for most, in that regards. it was much faster with exiting the precip towards new england. The 18z GFS still has us looking pretty good for Saturday night/early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The 18z GFS still has us looking pretty good for Saturday night/early Sunday. yes it does. lets hope that continues, right now its the ONLY model that doesnt rain on us, but the other models havent been as consistent as the GFS, so take your pick i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The 18z DGEX has toned things wayyyy down from the previous 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Well the 0Z NAM says Val-d'Or FTW ... for snowfall from the Sat/Sun low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Ha... back the cement truck up... the 0z GFS pulls a role reversal. Eastern 2 / 3 of Upstate is pasted in concrete with the secondary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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