Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 We got lucky with yesterday's storm, and got a lot of heavy wet snow instead of the rain that was forcasted.. Can we luck out 2 systems in a row? I hope so, even though it's not looking good right now, but things can always change.. Otherwise, we can say asta la vista to our snowpack! Cheers, Scratch long live the SE trend!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 yeah these models runs are outrageous lol the 18z DGEX looks like it just destroys WNY and NNY into this area with tons of ice and then snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 yeah these models runs are outrageous lol the 18z DGEX looks like it just destroys WNY and NNY into this area with tons of ice and then snow Not as good as the DGEX, but the 18z GFS has it out for C NY north/east with +SN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Alright, here is the QPF from Round 1 via the cutter thru the SLV.... Round 1 QPF... (H66-126)... Lmao, alright, draw a line from about BGM to Hoosick Falls, and along / north of that looks like all snow on the 18z GFS for the 2nd Coastal Low... Round 2 QPF (H132 Onward)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 if you cant get excited about this setup, you probably shouldnt be following the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Add both storms on the 18z GFS together, and you get a widespread swath of 4.50-6.00 QPF from I-81 eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Add both storms on the 18z GFS together, and you get a widespread swath of 4.50-6.00 QPF from along / east of I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Ok, I had to look this up. From a dragon to a woman warrior. haha....I take it you have played Ultima VII? Was, and is, one of my favourite games! if you cant get excited about this setup, you probably shouldnt be following the weather. I am in love with the current GFS run! You were right....tracking is an illness...and an addiction! I think once this winter is over, I will have to go see a cardiologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 haha....I take it you have played Ultima VII? Was, and is, one of my favourite games! I am in love with the current GFS run! You were right....tracking is an illness...and an addiction! I think once this winter is over, I will have to go see a cardiologist. yeah the 18z GFS is pretty incredible for ottawa, if that second storm were about another 50 miles west all in all, shows the complexity of the setup but all the models now are back to the original BIG idea a few days ago of a slow moving baroclinic zone with a strong series of wave with copious qpf, and then the leftover energy forming a neg tilt trough in the S which then comes north. thats what caught my eye a few days ago when i started posting in the upstate main thread.......the *potential* setup really is the stuff weather weenie dreams are made of lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Too many images on the 18z DGEX to post, but here's the 72-Hour QPF thru H168 with its nice 8.33" bullseye on the Tug Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Too many images on the 18z DGEX to post, but here's the 72-Hour QPF thru H168 with its nice 8.33" bullseye on the Tug Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 i just realized that the maps CNYWxguy posted about the DGEX dont even inlclude all the precip since the precip starts outside the DGEX 72 hour window :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 i just realized that the maps CNYWxguy posted about the DGEX dont even inlclude all the precip since the precip starts and ends outside the DGEX 72 hour window :arrowhead: Haha, that would be correct. Hell, just give everyone the maximum of 9.00 and call it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Haha, that would be correct. Hell, just give everyone the maximum of 9.00 and call it done. :lol: on to the 00z!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 This is truely what winters about, wether I get rain/snow I'm gonna be so happy just to watch this storm unfold and drop a likley 4-5"+ bullseye of precip on someone in upstate. Lets finish of winter 2011 with a bang!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Too many images on the 18z DGEX to post, but here's the 72-Hour QPF thru H168 with its nice 8.33" bullseye on the Tug Hill. If the Tug gets 8" of rain then I better start working on the Ark. Pulaski will be washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Sorry about the n00b question but it is genuine. I understand there's a lot of skepticism about the model output at this point. It seems to be mainly centered around the outrageous amounts of precip. I see that part. Is there something else you're seeing that gives pause? Should I be seeing something else wrong in the overall pattern? Is it just a general gestalt that this doesn't make sense? Something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Sorry about the n00b question but it is genuine. I understand there's a lot of skepticism about the model output at this point. It seems to be mainly centered around the outrageous amounts of precip. I see that part. Is there something else you're seeing that gives pause? Should I be seeing something else wrong in the overall pattern? Is it just a general gestalt that this doesn't make sense? Something else? personally im laughing more out of disbelief at the numbers being printed out. that being said, its been a very strong lead signal (since day 10) that the qpf was going to be off the charts possibly.....so its not entirely unrelaistic when ALL models are showing this potential. perhaps they will tone it down as we get closer, but noone should say we werent warned well in advance by the models if there are big qpf numbers. another question is whether the qpf gets more spread out over a larger area with 2 distinct waves rather than concentrated on one general area due to the slow moving nature of the trough. usually these things speed up as we get closer, or spread out a bit in coverage. so far, the models havent backed down from the huge outputs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 This is truely what winters about, wether I get rain/snow I'm gonna be so happy just to watch this storm unfold and drop a likley 4-5"+ bullseye of precip on someone in upstate. Lets finish of winter 2011 with a bang!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 okay, so I check the board for the first time today and discover that we may be in for the storm of the century? Interestingly, it looks like there might be a brief break in the precip Sunday afternoon and evening, meaning i might just be able to host the social gathering I've planned. I guess if it looks really bad (from a travelling perspective) I'll just postpone it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Btw...while we're on the subject of flooding, if you ever wondered how you effectively remove an ice jam, then read the bolded below... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1014 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2011 HYDROLOGY... -- Changed Discussion --THE ICE JAM ON THE COHOCTON RIVER NEAR CAMPBELL HAS BROKEN UP AND THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS ENDED. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. IN ADDITION THE RIVER GAGE JUST UPSTREAM FROM THE JAM HAS SHOWN A SHARP DROP IN THE RIVER LEVEL THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMITE AND A BACKHOE HELPED TO BREAK UP THE JAM THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Round 1 on the 0z GFS swiffers those north of the border with All-snow and 8+ 12+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Round 1 on the 0z GFS swiffers those north of the border with All-snow and 8+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS has defintely sunk the bz zone S and E just a bit more unquestionably all snow in ottawa through montreal ..... 1-2 feet , nice to look at looking at the h5, doesnt look like the 2nd low will develop or develop in time. all in all just another model run in a complex scenario that we will not know the answer for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS has defintely sunk the bz zone S and E just a bit more unquestionably all snow in ottawa through montreal ..... 1-2 feet , nice to look at looking at the h5, doesnt look like the 2nd low will develop or develop in time. all in all just another model run in a complex scenario that we will not know the answer for a while Hmm... yea, just barely. The Catskills and HV from New Paltz north (points east) are caked in 8+ with Round 2 in the form of the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS QPF for Round 1 (H84-114)... Easily 12"+ north of the border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS Round 2 from the Coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Hmm... yea, just barely. The Catskills and HV from New Paltz north to GFL (points east) are caked in 8+ with Round 2 in the form of the coastal. yeah the enery at 120 hours just didnt sharpen the trough enough in the S, its still there but not as impressive. good news is the trough postion is the same as 18z so the storm could come west some if the energy cooperates anyways, looking at something 5 days out is just hearsay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 00Z GFS is indeed delicious to look at. Winters redemption! A question....since I just started following models....are models usually this variable in forecasts or has this been a season of exceptions? I mean, I have seen model forecasts change in very short ranges. Do medium range forecasts usually pan out as modeled...in other words, is there a "days range" for certain models in which they obtain a reasonable level of accuracy in predictions? I hope the gist of my question is clear...I am having a hard time phrasing it! I ask this with a slight professional interest...I do research in AI, and am curious as to the possibility of having models "learn from mistakes". Sort of like adding the human (meteorologist) element of learning from "inaccurate forecasts" to models. (I haven't yet explored this issue or done any survey of whether this has been tried, so maybe this point is moot!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 00Z GFS is indeed delicious to look at. Winters redemption! A question....since I just started following models....are models usually this variable in forecasts or has this been a season of exceptions? I mean, I have seen model forecasts change in very short ranges. Do medium range forecasts usually pan out as modeled...in other words, is there a "days range" for certain models in which they obtain a reasonable level of accuracy in predictions? I hope the gist of my question is clear...I am having a hard time phrasing it! I ask this with a slight professional interest...I do research in AI, and am curious as to the possibility of having models "learn from mistakes". Sort of like adding the human (meteorologist) element of learning from "inaccurate forecasts" to models. (I haven't yet explored this issue or done any survey of whether this has been tried, so maybe this point is moot!) yes, the models can be widely variable at this range. its essentialyl been a normal season. i dont trust the models outside of 48-60 hours. its a lot to ask them to nail it beyond that period. sometimes big storms just disappear outside that period entirely. i dont know that much about how the models are built, but if you go to the main forum and look for it, there are a couple threads started by mets (dtk & baroclinic instability) come to mind, discussing the models technical aspects and performance and improvement....some grat info there if you are interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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