Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 do you think this bodes well for higher accumulations? There's still a fair amount of moisture off to our west it certianly is possibe....if it snows like this through the night and into mid-morning.....as cold air is going to continue to pour in.....this aint hovering around 0 all night snow. the backedge of the precip is crawling eastward. ....its barely moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 How much of the old snow base survived the deluge? For a lot of people, despite a nice snowfall, this may end up being a net loss of snow pack event..... its coming down in sheets of snow here in ottawa south. it looks like the earlier rain, but now snow. im impressed with this rain to snow transition. we literally went from a heavy rain to a snowstorm in 1 hour. all the standing water on the pavement and roads (and there was a ton) is covered in like 30 minutes. it really is impressive, as it usually take time after lots of rain, and often the snow beings with light visibilities before the temps cool off and then you get real snow as it dries out. not so with this one. roads are going to be a mess tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 here is a pic from ottawa keep in mind that this is after heavy rain all day about 1 - 1.5 inches standing water on the roads.....this is 1.5 hours later with temps still a tick above 32 thats an impressive transition! get ready buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 How much of the old snow base survived the deluge? For a lot of people, despite a nice snowfall, this may end up being a net loss of snow pack event..... you know i think it rained so hard, it just went right into the pack lol. remember that heavy rain last feb from that cutter? reminds me of that with the rain just coming straight down into the pack lol. but id estimate 4 inches loss. there was some FRZRA before the rain. it will probably end up a slight net gain if it keeps snowing like this. montreal should get a larger net gain as they will get more snow from the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 It's unusual to get a good rain to snow scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 It's unusual to get a good rain to snow scenario yeah it is this is probably about as good as it gets. what makes this one better than most is the ongoing cold air getting deeper as the snow continues. often you see a rain transition to snow but the temp just hovers around freezing or -1C until the snow ends, and then it falls. thats what is quite different about this i think,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Euro out to 12. Im comparing the incoming 0z run against its 12z run side-by-side. 0z run colder thus far... looks like the changeover line is sped up to east by about 2 hours. Also, Euro qpf for Ottawa from 1AM-7AM is .5-.75, an upgrade from .25-.50 for this area on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just pushed out 04Z SmartModel output. Looking at some impressive snowfall rates per hour in the Syracuse to Elmira to Buffalo areas. Rates of 1.1 to 1.3" for several hours is a strong possiblity. Some 24 hour snowfall accumulations show Syracuse with 9.6", Elmira with 10.5" Ft. Drum with 7" and Rochester around 6". Here are the city specific snow totals attached. Also uploaded actual smartmodel forecast for those areas. http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 keep in mind that this is after heavy rain all day about 1 - 1.5 inches standing water on the roads.....this is 1.5 hours later with temps still a tick above 32 Not just the roads, sidewalks too. Thought I'd go out for a walk to enjoy the snow and promptly came back...some of the sidewalks are impassable with a ridiculous amount of standing water/slush/snow. I have a feeling tomorrow the sidewalk on Lees is going to be a miniature Rideau Canal. Not much of a snow pack loss...not that I can tell. But good lord is it spongy with all the water! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 wow pembroke is getting blitzed 1/4 mile visibility and temp is down to -7C! those poor people up there must be wondering what in the sam hell hit them im sure people up there will be talking about this for a long time.......the day environment canada called for rain and we got 20 inches instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 H18... Changeover line running from BGM-UCA then cutting across the northern border of ALY-BTV cwa's. Moderate to heavy snow from changeover line westward to ROC / Cattaraugus Cnty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 hamilton ontario has flipped to snow now and down below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Not just the roads, sidewalks too. Thought I'd go out for a walk to enjoy the snow and promptly came back...some of the sidewalks are impassable with a ridiculous amount of standing water/slush/snow. I have a feeling tomorrow the sidewalk on Lees is going to be a miniature Rideau Canal. Not much of a snow pack loss...not that I can tell. But good lord is it spongy with all the water! tough night for a walk.....but its a damn good idea. if i wasnt sick with a sore throat and cough, i would have entertained the idea myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 H24... Sub 1008mb over Eastern MD. Changover line running from Deposit (Delaware Co NY / Wayne Co PA border) thru Rick's (Logan11) backyard and just north of ALY. Moderate to heavy snow extending back west to a line from Hornell-Syracuse-Old Forge-Plattsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 H30... sub 1004 directly over NYC. Changeover line now south of everybody in the forum. Moderate to heavy snow still holding back west from Hornell-Syracuse-Old Forge-Plattsburgh. The Catskills / entire CD / Lake George-Saratoga Region are getting smothered under .75-1.00 QPF this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 H36... Sub 1008 between CC and Portland. Light snows (.1-.25) along entire I-81 corridor east. Moderate to heavy snow still hanging in over MV / Dacks / CD / Upper HV. E NY is buried... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 H42... sub 1008 over downeast maine. Just some leftover light snow across E NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 thats a real crusher for ENY with the qpf wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 thats a real crusher for ENY with the qpf wow Yeah, its 1.00-1.25qpf over the bulk of E NY post changeover. The Lake George / Saratoga Region is 1.25-1.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 how this looking on the 00z euro for NE VT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yeah, looks like ~1.25qpf over the bulk of E NY post changeover. how much for you? looks like you get smoked too. still gonna watch to see if that hangs back a bit towards CNY snowing like a banshee here and blowing off the roofs and everything with the strong N wind gusts....im super impressed lol. all of ontario straight back through detroit is socked in with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 how much for you? looks like you get smoked too. still gonna watch to see if that hangs back a bit towards CNY snowing like a banshee here and blowing off the roofs and everything with the strong N wind gusts....im super impressed lol. all of ontario straight back through detroit is socked in with snow. Yeah, pretty much all of C & E NY is housed. Subtracting out the QPF pre-changeover leaves all of C NY with 1.00-1.25 as snow. The GFS is now the driest model out there I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 how this looking on the 00z euro for NE VT? 2-3 inches qpf not sure of temps, but im sure you get hammered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 how this looking on the 00z euro for NE VT? That area is flattened. Rain changes to snow by 1PM on Sunday. Thereafter, its another 1.75-2.25qpf as snow. Enjoy your 16+ lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yeah, pretty much all of C & E NY is housed. Subtracting out the QPF pre-changeover leaves all of C NY with 1.00-1.25 as snow. The GFS is now the driest model out there I think... nice! as per OB's tip, i went over to the accuweather forum and everyone in and around toronto and back through SW ontario is raving about how impressive the changeover is. hard to disagree. it was worth coming to ottawa for this for me, as i likely would have slept through it in montreal tomorrow morning. looks as though ill have to head back in the afternoon tomorrow as roads will be terrible in the AM, doesnt help that env canada called for an inch of snow overnight. honestly, this is the worst forecast performance ive ever seen from them.....and i was watching the news, there were tons of accidents including fatalities up here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 33.7 degrees and dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 That area is flattened. Rain changes to snow by 1PM on Sunday. Thereafter, its another 1.75-2.25qpf as snow. yeah that sounds like the right word lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 That area is flattened. Rain changes to snow by 1PM on Sunday. Thereafter, its another 1.75-2.25qpf as snow. Enjoy your 16+ lol... holy sh**. im so excited. bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 33.7 degrees and dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 BGM and ALY have some warning upgrades to do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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