Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 GFS actually unloads .5-.75 inches of precip between hours 6-30 for Buffalo... not bad,. GFS actually prints out more snow than the NAM, go figure.. 3-7 inches, my final call for buff.. if we can get a faster changeover and/or the low tracks NW of progged, we can see the higher end of that range.. In these types of situations, you are often surprised in a good way more than a bad way (aka when we need storms to go SE, it never happens.. but when a storm is too far SE of us, more times than not, the models mess up in a way favorable for us.. aka the storm goes about 50-70 miles NW of where forecasted) Not saying this means a foot of snow in buffalo, but could be the difference between 3 and 8, thats for sure. Temp steady at 44.. the changeover probably won't happen until 2-3 AM, instead of 12-2 like NWS said.. the front seemed to have slowed down. COME ON BABY, STALL over rochester ! hahaha ANYWAY, very curious to see what the CMC and Euro say for 0z... Detroit area has had to raise snowfall totals all day.. Backend of the precip is slow to move indeed Logan.....gonna be interesting to watch.....hope it works out for you down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 RGEM goes west.. NAM goes east. wouldn't be the first time it jumped back west though on the following 6z RUN.. one can only hope. Im actually suprised by the GFS going west or not moving vs it's 18z. AND the Nam going EAST, makes little sense in this little mind. One or the other got bad initialization in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 This synoptic situation could still have some surprises in store...we shall see! exactly Vortmax.. this is one those.. "well see how things look outside when i wake up type deals" could be disappointed to see barely anything on the ground with the back edge of the precip close by, or we could see heavy snowfall and a Low that tracked a bit west of what models thought. we shall see. for some reason, FOR ONCE.. and coming from a skeptical kid with weather this is pretty weird.. i have a hunch that we will see more snow than we think.. Models are just all over the place. RGEM shifted way west, and slower.. not to the NAM of previous runs, but if we see 6z NAM switch back west and the euro go west, who knows... Euro is very very consistent though in this time frame, i wouldn't expect even a budge in either direction... Fingers crossed vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 indeed Logan.....gonna be interesting to watch.....hope it works out for you down there. Geez, how many Logan's do we have in our region... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I thought the GFS went east a little.... At this point the NAM could be accurate. Inside 24 hours it isn't bad. Only time will tell now ....nowcast time really. one can only hope. Im actually suprised by the GFS going west or not moving vs it's 18z. AND the Nam going EAST, makes little sense in this little mind. One or the other got bad initialization in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 No worries Logan (CNYwx).. my names Jay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Geez, how many Logan's do we have in our region... lol his name is Rick, but sometimes i refer to him as his screenname, but i should call him Chief wiggum really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 HAH I'm really Rick ...I keep the nickname because I have used it since like 1994 on BB's etc. and some people I know from ages ago might not be able to find me. Geez, how many Logan's do we have in our region... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Comparing current conditions, RUC, NAM/GFS... GFS is too fast and a bit too far east with the storm through the first 18-24 hours... NAM, actaully, has the hand in this one.. and this is the 18z im speaking of, not the 0z. BTW, i dropped 7 degrees in the past 30 minutes. Wonder if the front has passed.. 37 degrees winds whipping at 17 MPH from Due north. the front is directly overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 reports of 4 inches + ongoing snow in michigan where only 1 was expected. good sign that i am likely too conservative, but what the hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 snowing now here in south ottawa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Organizing Low, do you think this may translate into higher accumulations in places like WNY and up through Toronto and into Ottawa... seems like colder air is filtering in in plenty of time... still snowing in michigan. Hoping that once the front crosses, all the precipitation back thru Indiana, PA, Ohio, and Kentucky head up this way. PLEASSSSE... 6 hours are KEY. watch pressure change maps.. low pressure will follow in direction of pressure changes. http://www.mnsu.edu/weather/surface/surfacepressure.html Most drastic pressure changes found up the spine of the apps into WNY... maybe a sign that this baby may go west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Frontal boundary is now into St. Lawrence County.... snowing now here in south ottawa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 his name is Rick, but sometimes i refer to him as his screenname, but i should call him Chief wiggum really. Ooo... gotcha. You quoted Jay and responded with the name Logan, so figured that was his real name. Yeah, I have the whole Rick (Logan11) down pat now, thought we had another Logan now to. You know what they say... 2 is a party, but 3 is a crowd... so there just not enough room for 3 Logan's on here I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Organizing Low, do you think this may translate into higher accumulations in places like WNY and up through Toronto and into Ottawa... seems like colder air is filtering in in plenty of time... still snowing in michigan. Hoping that once the front crosses, all the precipitation back thru Indiana, PA, Ohio, and Kentucky head up this way. PLEASSSSE... 6 hours are KEY. watch pressure change maps.. low pressure will follow in direction of pressure changes. http://www.mnsu.edu/...cepressure.html Most drastic pressure changes found up the spine of the apps into WNY... maybe a sign that this baby may go west? yes, thats what would likely happen. actually what i belive is happenig is that the second in the series of waves is stronger than progged and we are seeing the result with the snow in through to the west in michigan and SW ontario. thats also slowing the progress of the baro zone eastward. the last wave (the southern low) i think the brunt will still be eastward.....but a good snow from this second batch should occur in WNY to be certain. the final, southern low is bonus snow i suppose. i guess the ECM at 12z was really hanigng back the moisure into the cold sector....i dont have temp profiles from the 12z euro handy, but i recall thats what CNYWX guy mentioned.....it seems to be doing well tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 All we need , is for one the players on the field to do differently than what the models prog.. changes the wholeee game.. a stronger second wave may impact the third and southern-most wave of low pressure. between now and 6 AM is a key time... things are starting to unfold. I wanna see where this gosh darn 3rd low pressure begins to track! I'm hoping we can squeeze 2-4 out of that second low pressure, and another 2-4 from the 3rd.. i'd run home with 4-8 inches any day. only a few days ago, there was no talk of a backend snow... because rarely do they ever come to fruition. My gut tells me people in buffalo will more than likely be surprised in a good way, rather than be disappointed.. People out here should be expecting only 3-6 inches, and we could end up doing better. Those that believed yesterdays NAM to be true are just not meterologically sound... wishful thinkers and weenies. I knew it was WAY overdone, but I tohught it could be onto something with the track at least being farther west... I would feel much better had the 0z NAM stuck to its guns, then i'd be a bit more confident in saying good things may happen... As far as my naked eye can see, the 12z NAM, thus far, has the storm more correct than the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 All we need , is for one the players on the field to do differently than what the models prog.. changes the wholeee game.. a stronger second wave may impact the third and southern-most wave of low pressure. between now and 6 AM is a key time... things are starting to unfold. I wanna see where this gosh darn 3rd low pressure begins to track! I'm hoping we can squeeze 2-4 out of that second low pressure, and another 2-4 from the 3rd.. i'd run home with 4-8 inches any day. only a few days ago, there was no talk of a backend snow... because rarely do they ever come to fruition. My gut tells me people in buffalo will more than likely be surprised in a good way, rather than be disappointed.. People out here should be expecting only 3-6 inches, and we could end up doing better. Those that believed yesterdays NAM to be true are just not meterologically sound... wishful thinkers and weenies. I knew it was WAY overdone, but I tohught it could be onto something with the track at least being farther west... I would feel much better had the 0z NAM stuck to its guns, then i'd be a bit more confident in saying good things may happen... As far as my naked eye can see, the 12z NAM, thus far, has the storm more correct than the 0z You should check out the accuweather forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 34.8 degrees and falling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Wet snow now falling in Ottawa. Hopefully it intensifies overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Wet snow now falling in Ottawa. Hopefully it intensifies overnight. Not bad.... just about right on target with the NAM / 12z Euro. Both suggested a changeover by ~6z / 1AM for your BY based on the Surface 32°F / 850 0°C lines on the output maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Organizing Low, do you think this may translate into higher accumulations in places like WNY and up through Toronto and into Ottawa... seems like colder air is filtering in in plenty of time... still snowing in michigan. Hoping that once the front crosses, all the precipitation back thru Indiana, PA, Ohio, and Kentucky head up this way. PLEASSSSE... 6 hours are KEY. watch pressure change maps.. low pressure will follow in direction of pressure changes. http://www.mnsu.edu/...cepressure.html Most drastic pressure changes found up the spine of the apps into WNY... maybe a sign that this baby may go west? I like the pressure drops as well. And the satellite/ radar images. Plus the western extent of snow in Detroit. I'm somewhat hopeful for KROC. Don't know what yur still doin' up in Buffalo though. Goto bed and be happy with yur ridiculous LES storms! LOL! ACtually latest data shows you on the west of some mod/ light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 To exciting to sleep Dave! Watching that blue line creep towards us is to fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/barometric-pressure/ Cold front definitely just went through Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 To exciting to sleep Dave! Watching that blue line creep towards us is to fun! And that huge slug of moisture and LP over alabama and the southern apps right now! I hope you guys get 12". That means I get 24 and Syracuse gets 36! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 its coming down in sheets of snow here in ottawa south. it looks like the earlier rain, but now snow. im impressed with this rain to snow transition. we literally went from a heavy rain to a snowstorm in 1 hour. all the standing water on the pavement and roads (and there was a ton) is covered in like 30 minutes. it really is impressive, as it usually take time after lots of rain, and often the snow beings with light visibilities before the temps cool off and then you get real snow as it dries out. not so with this one. roads are going to be a mess tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 We are approaching the freezing mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Doug Peters (Wxdoug) is off this weekend by looks. Here is what his counterpart Andrea Michalenicz has come up with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 We are approaching the freezing mark an even freezin' at the airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 34.6 degrees and falling. latest radar / satellite trends look farther west than any model really had the precip.. not so sure about low placement, but precip shield is extended to the west more tahn i thought it would be. I think we can get 8 inches out of this.. Rochester 12, Syracuse 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 its coming down in sheets of snow here in ottawa south. it looks like the earlier rain, but now snow. im impressed with this rain to snow transition. we literally went from a heavy rain to a snowstorm in 1 hour. all the standing water on the pavement and roads (and there was a ton) is covered in like 30 minutes. it really is impressive, as it usually take time after lots of rain, and often the snow beings with light visibilities before the temps cool off and then you get real snow as it dries out. not so with this one. roads are going to be a mess tomorrow. do you think this bodes well for higher accumulations? There's still a fair amount of moisture off to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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