ayuud Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 WWA up for 3-5",better than nothing rite?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Well even if we get a good dump ..this is gonna be a zero sum gain system. ...after the bloodletting my snowpack is taking now. But it's always fun to have a snowstorm of course. This is only till 5 pm tomorrow, according to the gfs and nam the changeover imby dosen't even happens till around lunch time..There should be more precip to follow after 5 pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 WWA up for 3-5",better than nothing rite?????? Snowiest March in 3 years on the way!! I don't know what we're going to do with all this snow. NAM still doesn't look all that bad here, either- if the QPF isn't overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 FWIW I just looked at the NAM 2M temp in GFL at 7 PM and it is 27F. If it isn't snow then it's PL ...it's not wet snow. A little further east would be big for me. I am straddling a fence separating a foot to a couple of slushy inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 what would Ottawa get as per the latest nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 what would Ottawa get as per the latest nam? Still looks like .50-.75 qpf as snow. So 5-9 still looks like a good possibility... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Still looks like .50-.75 qpf as snow. So 5-9 still looks like a good possibility... Good to hear. i honestly wasn't expecting insane amounts between 16-20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Still looks like .50-.75 qpf as snow. So 5-9 still looks like a good possibility... When do you think Ottawa should see the changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 When do you think Ottawa should see the changeover? 0z NAM looks about the same as the 12z ECM as far as Ottawa is concerned, both in snow amounts and changeover. The Surface 32°F / 850mb 0°C / 540dm lines all begin to collapse on Ottawa right around 1AM, maybe give or take an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 SREF's and RGEM have moved a bit west with qpf....at least for areas in CNY from their respective, previous runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 1.7C at my place. When do you think the wet snow might begin? I'm @ +0.9 c now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 OK. here comes the GFS. I'll bet it's east of the nam. Wouldn't it be funny if they both ran at eachother and overshot? IE: The Nam ends up the Eastern model and Gfs ends up west. I doubt it though. I've never seen the GFS west of the Nam. I think the GFS will basically show Rochester w/ zero snow accums. Syr w/ about 7 inches. Lets see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I'm @ +0.9 c now same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 0z NAM MOS text printout across C NY... Syracuse- 26.7" Elmira- 26.2" Utica- 23.4" Binghamton- 17.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 SREF's and RGEM have moved a bit west with qpf....at least for areas in CNY from their respective, previous runs.... RGEM is WEST!!! Wow! I'm really, really suprised. Dang, just when they let you go, They DRAW YOU BACK IN!!! LOL. Wow. I did not expect that. Now I'm not gonna get any sleep. You guys know what I'm talkin' about. The RGEM actually puts KROC on the western fringes of the heaviest snow. It was east for it's last run and now it is back in the fold. Maybe, just maybe the Nam gave up on its earlier solution too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 So far, I have picked up 1.46" of RA. Looks like I might see quite a bit of snow starting tomorrow afternoon, when the rain changes to a mix before becoming all snow around 4-5 pm. How Much snow will depend on how long the sleet hangs on for Because, the temps aloft will be above freezing for possibly well into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 same here its snowing on march road, check out klondike and march check out the traffic cams, the roads are covered Proof, youll be first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 GFS still on the eastern end of things as far as track is concerned. Grand Canyon size difference between NAM and GFS QPF totals. The NAM overblowing the QPF by a good bit I suspect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 northwestern most sections of ottawa not sure whats with that date at the bottom of the pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 RGEM goes west.. NAM goes east. wouldn't be the first time it jumped back west though on the following 6z RUN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 down to 44 here. front has slowed down a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 KPIT WWA for 4-6 inches.. 0 possibility they see more than buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 its snowing on march road, check out klondike and march check out the traffic cams, the roads are covered Proof, youll be first! The 'proof' is in the streetlights and is hitting the ground....down to +0.4 c...I'm about 5 or 6 km south of that location...come on OL, I know you're dying to do one of your patented town by town forecasts...or in the case of an Accuweather guy, listing the cm of snow for Kanata, the amount for Bayshore, the amount for Westboro etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 0z GFS is ugly for most of us west of cuse.. even places North of Albany and up into Ottawa... heaviest precip falls in the warm sector of the storm.. the storm is quickly outta here via GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 the progress of the backend and the fact that they are having to raise accums in michigan and SW ontario lead me to believe that the wave train is hanging back a bit. could mean more snow to the western sides, at least that would make sense. but this thing could start moving quicker overnight. RGEM definitely has slowed the progress considerably. i suppose the euro was hanging back precip into the cold sector, moreso than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 GFS actually unloads .5-.75 inches of precip between hours 6-30 for Buffalo... not bad,. GFS actually prints out more snow than the NAM, go figure.. 3-7 inches, my final call for buff.. if we can get a faster changeover and/or the low tracks NW of progged, we can see the higher end of that range.. In these types of situations, you are often surprised in a good way more than a bad way (aka when we need storms to go SE, it never happens.. but when a storm is too far SE of us, more times than not, the models mess up in a way favorable for us.. aka the storm goes about 50-70 miles NW of where forecasted) Not saying this means a foot of snow in buffalo, but could be the difference between 3 and 8, thats for sure. Temp steady at 44.. the changeover probably won't happen until 2-3 AM, instead of 12-2 like NWS said.. the front seemed to have slowed down. COME ON BABY, STALL over rochester ! hahaha ANYWAY, very curious to see what the CMC and Euro say for 0z... Detroit area has had to raise snowfall totals all day.. Backend of the precip is slow to move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 This synoptic situation could still have some surprises in store...we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 accuweather FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The 'proof' is in the streetlights and is hitting the ground....down to +0.4 c...I'm about 5 or 6 km south of that location...come on OL, I know you're dying to do one of your patented town by town forecasts...or in the case of an Accuweather guy, listing the cm of snow for Kanata, the amount for Bayshore, the amount for Westboro etc. yeah im mixing with ice pellets here now near the airport. no way i could be as specific as that accuweather guy.....that guy is crazy to be so specific, must take a lot of patience, and he must use some supercomputer in his basement to be so localized i can only do general regions. im pleased that my call for up to 18 inches /45 cm in the upper ottawa valley worked out. i stuck my neck on the line with that in face of the Env Canada heavy rainfall warning up there, so im happy about that. i think ottawa will see anyhwere from 3-6 inches / 7-15cm overnight into tomorrow. thats conservative possibly, but i find it very difficult to be agressive in the face of mixed modeling. seems like a middle ground, but i am defintely wary of how well it is snowing in MI/Sw ontario and how they are raising accums there....and how slow the backedge of the precip is moving. the quesiton for ottawa will be whether the backedge totally crosses through the region (it should) and when....that will determine if any effects from the second storm hit.....im not optimistic for ottawa but its possible there could be light additional accums tomorrow night into monday morning. montreal im going to go with 5-10 inches / 12-25cm for now .... this includes the second storm, pending further modeling tomorrow. they should switch over to snow early tomorrow morning. on a line from hawkesbury- casselman - massena- canton NY.....4-8 inches / 10-20cm S of montreal towards the VT border and between chateguay - rousses point.....8-14 inches / 20-35cm...possibly up to 40cm i was going to get up early and drive back to MTL tomorrow....those traffic cams in west ottawa suggest the roads are going to get messy and quick. ill have to assess the situation early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.