wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 KALB THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS A FORECAST CHALLENGE ATTHIS TIME AS THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. GGEM...GFS AND ECMWF START OUT SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TRACK AND SPEED OF SYSTEM VARY GREATLY AFTER THAT WITH GFS FASTEST AND GGEM SLOWEST WITH MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW. GFS HAS 997 MB LOW BY SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WHILE ECMWF HAS AN ELONGATED TROF WITH MULTIPLE LOWS STRETCHING FROM WRN NY TO THE GULF COAST AND GGEM HAS AN ELONGATED TROF STRETCHING FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO GULF COAST WITH MAIN SFC LOW STILL BACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. FEATURES ALOFT ARE IN EVEN MORE DISAGREEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS GGEM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL START OFF WITH A POSITIVE TILTED TROF OVER THE CENTRAL US ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS AND NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE ECMWF. BY SUNDAY MORNING HUGE DISCREPANCIES EXIST AT H5 BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE GGEM HAVING A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...THE ECMWF STILL HAVING AN OPEN TROUGH WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THE GFS DEVELOPING A NEGATIVE TILTED TROF WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS OVER LK ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND WHILE IT DOES APPEAR THAT HEAVY PCPN MAY OCCUR AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PTYPE PRECLUDE MENTIONING OF THIS EVENT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. DO EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL AND FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON SATURDAY...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 H168 of the 12z ECM Ens Mean never loaded for some reason, but here was H144. Overall placement of the LP is nearly spot on with H168 / 0z run, so 12z run is about 12H faster and is also warmer as 850's are +0°C over most of Upstate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Decent over-running snowfall for Friday on the 0z GFS which is similar to the 0z NAM. Nothing special thereafter with LP cutting up west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 hah yeah thats what i meant are you sure you want to get into storm tracking? its an illness you know You can get MOS data Meteorological Development Lab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 You can get MOS data Meteorological Development Lab Good site, but he's talking about MOS data for the Euro model. Only source I know of that has this info is Accu Pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Good site, but he's talking about MOS data for the Euro model. Only source I know of that has this info is Accu Pro. I must not have read back far enough ......Yeah, you're right that is the only place to get that data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I just hope that the GFS and ECMWF are wrong for this upcoming weekend. Right now the track looks to be to our west......This would mean more in the way of rain and very unsettled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Preliminary thoughts: Wet for most of us..ana-frontal passage On Sunday X NYS best rainfall behind front may mix end as snow for CNY/WNY...cold rain to snow on Monday perhaps for ENY north of NYC, though 06z GEFS ensembles tend to say not for ENY (i.e.) just the anafrontal passage, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I must not have read back far enough ......Yeah, you're right that is the only place to get that data. thanks for the effort though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 6z GFS looks off, but figured I post it anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 6z GFS looks off, but figured I post it anyway... QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Some over-running snow Friday for parts of the area (Looks like Ra / Sn mix in Wrn S Tier)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Then comes the cutter up the SLV. Atleast it's dry on the QPF for most of us (Generally <.75"), specially across I-90... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Then comes the cutter up the SLV. Atleast it's dry on the QPF for most of us (Generally <.75"), specially across I-90... QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Eeek, 12z ECM has some raunchy QPF totals across the region thru early next week. I'd say about 90-95% of it falls as rain with some backend snow possibilities (1-5" for Upstate verbatim). Draw a line from the Southern Catskills to the CD, and everybody along and west is in the 1.50-4.00 range (Increasing SE to NW), with highest amounts across the Dacks / N NY where its 4.00-6.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 man the euro is insane! about 50-75 miles from crippling ottawa. i may have to make a trip a bit westward for this one. as it stands, id say the upper ottawa valley-north of ottawa by 50-75 miles through tremblant and the qc ski areas......anywhere from 2-5 feet of heavy wet snow 4-6 inches of liquid equivalent in eastern ontario even in this setup, ottawa would probably get about 6-12 inches of snow on the backside, after most of the storm is over ice and heavy rain would also be an issue of course. of course we are days out, but its good to see the euro hangin on to a very interesting setup as the GFS is a snoozer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 man the euro is insane! about 50-75 miles from crippling ottawa. i may have to make a trip a bit westward for this one. as it stands, id say the upper ottawa valley-north of ottawa by 50-75 miles through tremblant and the qc ski areas......anywhere from 2-5 feet of heavy wet snow 4-6 inches of liquid equivalent in eastern ontario even in this setup, ottawa would probably get about 6-12 inches of snow on the backside, after most of the storm is over ice and heavy rain would also be an issue of course. of course we are days out, but its good to see the euro hangin on to a very interesting setup as the GFS is a snoozer. For Ottawa: 2.33" of rain, then 1.27" of ice, then 0.49" of snow. Holy $@#!% If only it could be all snow...I'll never complain about any winter ever again. Never. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 For Ottawa: 2.33" of rain, then 1.27" of ice, then 0.49" of snow. Holy $@#!% If only it could be all snow...I'll never complain about any winter ever again. Never. Ever. WOW! i only have the free maps with a little boost, but i kinda got the vibe that it was thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis close to crippling ottawa. MOS data confirms that. about 50-75 miles more S and E and i'd venture to say its all ice and snow with more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 WOW! i only have the free maps with a little boost, but i kinda got the vibe that it was thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis close to crippling ottawa. MOS data confirms that. about 50-75 miles more S and E and i'd venture to say its all ice and snow. I hope so....otherwise I'll have to invest in an icebreaker. And bye bye snow...even now that big ball of fire is mercilessly annihilating billions of fresh new snowflakes. Add to that what the Euro is showing.... The GEFS shows a colder scenario...I don't know what it make of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 WOW! i only have the free maps with a little boost, but i kinda got the vibe that it was thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis close to crippling ottawa. MOS data confirms that. about 50-75 miles more S and E and i'd venture to say its all ice and snow with more snow Back in december, my best friend and his wife invited me to join them in Jamaica for a week of fun in the sun. I came very close to joining them, but opted out. What does this have to do with the coming storm? My friends are leaving (so they think) Saturday march 5th. This storm will be historic, IF not biblical for Ottawa only because I came ever so close of being away, stuck in a hot, humid island while MBY got buried. Deja vu? I think not! Long live the SE trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Back in december, my best friend and his wife invited me to join them in Jamaica for a week of fun in the sun. I came very close to joining them, but opted out. What does this have to do with the coming storm? My friends are leaving (so they think) Saturday march 5th. This storm will be historic, IF not biblical for Ottawa only because I came ever so close of being away, stuck in a hot, humid island while MBY got buried. Deja vu? I think not! Long live the SE trend! yeah you've learned the hard way. march is the one month i never go anywhere before the 21st. too much craziness can happen. not sure whats going to happen but it is close and i like your optimism! lets hope we arent building a boat in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Eeek, 12z ECM has some raunchy QPF totals across the region thru early next week. I'd say about 90-95% of it falls as rain with some backend snow possibilities (1-5" for Upstate verbatim). Draw a line from the Southern Catskills to the CD, and everybody along and west is in the 1.50-4.00 range (Increasing SE to NW), with highest amounts across the Dacks / N NY where its 4.00-6.00. that would be horrible for the dacks, water equiv in the snow is 4-6 inches I would say and thats conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Well, the HPC doesn't think the operational ECM solution is the most likely. They are leaning towards the GFS & UK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 For our friends north of the border... take it for what it is and where it comes from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 this could go well NW but, well it could still trend S and E to get more frozen precip into NYS still at this range, further west you are the better. the key piece of energy comes ashore in about 48 hours and the key amplifcaition process is in 60-72 hrs. this process sets the heights and resultant placement of the baroclinc zone in the midwest and lakes. this really ends up determining where the precip sets up and who is on the cold side. right now, the models are surprisingly (to me) vigorous with this rather weak piece of energy inducing amplificaiton and raising heights in our area, which results in much of the region being warm sectored, with ottawa on the edge. but you can see, this is a long list process and there is ample time to still change things. small changes in the initial energy can lead to large effects in time. its a very complex setup, as evidenced by the copious qpf. hopefully we dont all get flooded with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scratch Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 but you can see, this is a long list process and there is ample time to still change things. small changes in the initial energy can lead to large effects in time. its a very complex setup, as evidenced by the copious qpf. hopefully we dont all get flooded with rain. We got lucky with yesterday's storm, and got a lot of heavy wet snow instead of the rain that was forcasted.. Can we luck out 2 systems in a row? I hope so, even though it's not looking good right now, but things can always change.. Otherwise, we can say asta la vista to our snowpack! Cheers, Scratch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 For our friends north of the border... take it for what it is and where it comes from... Humph....I wish. The day their maps pan out as they show, this far out, is the day I'll change my name to Boadicea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Humph....I wish. The day their maps pan out as they show, this far out, is the day I'll change my name to Boadicea Ok, I had to look this up. From a dragon to a woman warrior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12z NoGaps is a laugher. Some of the models images I'm seeing whether it be the 12z Euro and NoGaps or yesterdays CMC runs are just plain redonkulous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12z NoGaps is a laugher. Some of the models images I'm seeing whether it be the 12z Euro and NoGaps or yesterdays CMC runs are just plain redonkulous... And here be the rest of the run thru H180. You'll have to use your imagination as far as total QPF is concerned from H108-180... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.