jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 very true regarding the frontal passage.. i hope this front is slow in its progression over the lakes and eastward.. 50-75 miles in track means the world for the buffalo metro, especially areas NE. In terms of comparing the models to current data, the 18z NAM was correct with low placement.. GFS too far east 18z gfs= 7 inches 18z nam= 17 inches i'd be more than satisfied with a track in between the two.. 12 inches is the average of the two... holding onto string here, but im happy the NAM has the storm correct thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 front is through ottawa, winds have shifted NW and temp is falling i tell you man we got buckets of rain today.....expected but always a slap in the face when it happens....now onto the snow! 1.7C at my place. When do you think the wet snow might begin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just got back from the SU blowout/dunkfest..... Yes... yes it was. I always wondered what the precision of a Delta Force operation in Somalia and the power of a WW2 European blitzkrieg combined in a single offensive would look like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 1.7C at my place. When do you think the wet snow might begin? hopefully around 10pm that would be a decent compromise between the SREFs 7-1 range....of course it will move from the west end to east end. the snow has been so close all day, i think the line was basically just north of renfrew...so close... sucks being on the wrong side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 very true regarding the frontal passage.. i hope this front is slow in its progression over the lakes and eastward.. 50-75 miles in track means the world for the buffalo metro, especially areas NE. In terms of comparing the models to current data, the 18z NAM was correct with low placement.. GFS too far east 18z gfs= 7 inches 18z nam= 17 inches i'd be more than satisfied with a track in between the two.. 12 inches is the average of the two... holding onto string here, but im happy the NAM has the storm correct thus far what did the latest nam show for Ottawa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 OL. here's a link to forecast for our area made by someone on the accuweather forums. He does a good job at breaking it down (as do you!) http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=25566&view=findpost&p=1331455 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Wgrz: 6-8 possible but pretty much have 0 clue (following NWS winter storm watch)WKBW: 3-6 inchesTWC: 1-3 by daybreak, 3-5 tomorrow, and 1-3 in the evening (5-11 total)WIVB: 4-7 inches of snow. "one model brings another 7 .. aka the NAM"NWS: 6-8 inches in the watch, 4-7 in the point-click for those Buffalo peeps... our forecasts now as they stand... the 12-4 am time frame is key.. where the heck does this low develop.. The front is ahead of schedule according the NWS, changeover happens by 12 far western areas. IMO, could mean more easterly track, but, all depends on low strength.. wont necessarily ride the front. Also looks like there will be plenty of moisture left from storm 1 when temps hit 32 temp down 3 degrees in 35 minutes.. 49 to 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Cold front just hit Erie, PA...temp fell from 51/52 to 36F. 48F here. 0.84" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 winds now out of the north at 22 km/hour in Ottawa. Temperature is falling. Down to 33F at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 winds now out of the north at 22 km/hour in Ottawa. Temperature is falling. Down to 33F at my place. wonder if you will go over to frzra before snow? a possibility let us know what happens when the temp goes below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The front location isn't what is going to determine our low's track 100%.. the NAM has much more amplification and a deeper phase. aka a slower solution. hangs back the moisture and a deformation zone forms with buffalo on its most western edge, over to syracuse. We've been burned time and after this year with SLP going NW of what is progged.. GFS SE Bias cannot be ignored, and neither can the fact that the NAM nailed the storm a week and a half back.. NAM always cuts down its precip 18z or 0z the night before, but.... its holding strong as of now to its track.. 0z tonight will be huge.. Does it go east? I trust the NAM's higher resolution inside 30 hours. especially in a complex situation like this. Im surprised we haven't had posts and people comparing the NAM and GFS to whats going on in the atmostphere right now.. Anyone want to chime in on that? I think Buffalo may be in for a nice surprise. The front is crossing lake erie and has hit portions of Eastern OHIO, far western tip of PA... I'm rooting for a quick change over with plenty of precip still hanging to our W/SW. Gonna be a very close call for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The front location isn't what is going to determine our low's track 100%.. the NAM has much more amplification and a deeper phase. aka a slower solution. hangs back the moisture and a deformation zone forms with buffalo on its most western edge, over to syracuse. We've been burned time and after this year with SLP going NW of what is progged.. GFS SE Bias cannot be ignored, and neither can the fact that the NAM nailed the storm a week and a half back.. NAM always cuts down its precip 18z or 0z the night before, but.... its holding strong as of now to its track.. 0z tonight will be huge.. Does it go east? I trust the NAM's higher resolution inside 30 hours. especially in a complex situation like this. Im surprised we haven't had posts and people comparing the NAM and GFS to whats going on in the atmostphere right now.. Anyone want to chime in on that? I think Buffalo may be in for a nice surprise. The front is crossing lake erie and has hit portions of Eastern OHIO, far western tip of PA... I'm rooting for a quick change over with plenty of precip still hanging to our W/SW. Gonna be a very close call for us. current analyis shows that the southern low is between where the NAM and GFS had it. well the GFS didnt have it at all, but the NAM was too far west at 00z analysis. based on that, i'll fall off my chair if the NAM comes in the same, i'm expecting a compromise leaned towards the euro/gfs. having said that, im rooting for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 me too.. i hope the NAM pulls a bit east, and GFS a bit west.. just so theres SOME sort of agreement tonight..if 0z NAM shows another 12+ inch storm for Buffalo im gonna be in shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 What a dreary, wet day. Lots of rain, but remarkably the snow pack survived, maybe thanks to the initial burst of snow we had. No idea what the temperature is, but if OB is saying 33F, thats probably right for my area too. It would be nice if the 00Z run of the NAM from yesterday happens. It would be nice if it happens. Oh, why can't it happen?!! Well, whatever happens, happens. I'll be happy with whatever happens, since nothing else would happen anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 What a dreary, wet day. Lots of rain, but remarkably the snow pack survived, maybe thanks to the initial burst of snow we had. No idea what the temperature is, but if OB is saying 33F, thats probably right for my area too. I would be nice if the 00Z run of the NAM from yesterday happens. It would be nice if it happens. Oh, why can't it happen?!! Well, whatever happens, happens. I'll be happy with whatever happens, since nothing else would happen anyways. i was working outside all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 NAM is east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Noticeable shift east on the 0z NAM compared to 18z run. Olean to Rochester and points east are flattened, though there is a decrease in cold sector QPF (expectedly). The NAM is testing my bank of adjectives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 And so it happened.... the NAM capitulated. ..still sweet for areas N and W of ALB generally and as you said below. Maybe a little more eastward correction next run, but not much. Noticeable shift east on the 0z NAM compared to 18z run. Olean to Rochester and points east are flattened, though there is a decrease in cold sector QPF (expectedly). The NAM is testing my bank of adjectives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 OL. here's a link to forecast for our area made by someone on the accuweather forums. He does a good job at breaking it down (as do you!) http://forums.accuwe...dpost&p=1331455 yeah i remember this guys last forecast.....incredibly specific. defintely he is a bit agressive for my taste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 0z nam hr 18 and hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The 0z nam is considerably East. Giving Rochester maybe 3-6 inches of snow. Putting Syracuse even on the west side of the heaviest snow. Herkimer, I hope yur Dancing in the street! I liked the trends of satellite and radar trends until just about 2 hrs ago. But I'm starting to think this is a bust for WNY. Never rely on one model, ie: the Nam. Interesting to watch the cobb output. It will go from 38 inches for kroc 6 hrs ago to 8 inches. I wonder if the Gfs goes east as well. Albany might be the winner. BUF guy: it looks like little to nothin' for ya bud. Sorry. This baby just aint strong enough. The front is in the same place. Just no energy! Even on the Weather Channel they are talkin' about how the planned severe wx is waning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 hr 30,hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 wow nam basically bows down to the gfs,jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 And so it happened.... the NAM capitulated. ..still sweet for areas N and W of ALB generally and as you said below. Maybe a little more eastward correction next run, but not much. A little further east would be big for me. I am straddling a fence separating a foot to a couple of slushy inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I think it's a good place to be given the trend. Arctic air tends to win and it will be siphoning down. Most likely the NAM has FZRA and PL for awhile before the snow. A little further east would be big for me. I am straddling a fence separating a foot to a couple of slushy inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I was a little nervous about it after 18Z - and I have been played a few times by the NAM this year only to have it bow down. Basically you can't trust it....for your sanity. LOL wow nam basically bows down to the gfs,jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I think it's a good place to be given the trend. Arctic air tends to win and it will be siphoning down. Most likely the NAM has FZRA and PL for awhile before the snow. Hope so. At my high for the day at 44.7 now. Wonder where Andy is today ? This one is a good challenge for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The 0z nam is considerably East. Giving Rochester maybe 3-6 inches of snow. Putting Syracuse even on the west side of the heaviest snow. Herkimer, I hope yur Dancing in the street! I liked the trends of satellite and radar trends until just about 2 hrs ago. But I'm starting to think this is a bust for WNY. Never rely on one model, ie: the Nam. Interesting to watch the cobb output. It will go from 38 inches for kroc 6 hrs ago to 8 inches. I wonder if the Gfs goes east as well. Albany might be the winner. BUF guy: it looks like little to nothin' for ya bud. Sorry. This baby just aint strong enough. The front is in the same place. Just no energy! Even on the Weather Channel they are talkin' about how the planned severe wx is waning. ROC does better than 3-6. QPF is .50-.75 as all snow on the NAM, call it 6-8 verbatim, but there is tight w-e gradient in Monroe Co. I'm pullin for ya'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The graphic says Saturday, but it should be Sunday. Local mets dont seem to agree with most others This is only till 5 pm tomorrow, according to the gfs and nam the changeover imby dosen't even happens till around lunch time..There should be more precip to follow after 5 pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Alright, BUF has taken a leap of faith on their headlines... Advisories across far W NY... 3-6. Warnings across remainder of W / C NY counties... 6-10 in Gen Valley / Western Finger Lakes. 8-16 across NC NY / Tug Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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